The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft begins Thursday, and it’s time to switch from a prediction mode to a valuation mindset.
Draft analysis immediately after a pick is always an incomplete task. Analyzing team moves pick by pick is even more difficult. But as teams make long-awaited decisions about potential future stars, it’s time to make some snap decisions while considering each team’s big picture.
USA TODAY Sports will provide a score for each pick on opening day. Be sure to check back here overnight as the selection arrives.
2024 NFL Draft Grades: All First Round Picks
1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina Panthers): Caleb Williams, QB, USC – Grade: A
General manager Ryan Pauls denied rumors about the Bears’ QB history, saying, “We were hired to break the cycle.” It’s too early to say the job is done, but it’s hard to argue with the process that got Chicago here. Yes, much of this good fortune can be attributed to the Panthers’ ineffectiveness last season. But the Pole had a brilliant plan to get Williams set up properly ahead of this selection. With a strong supporting cast on offense, it’s up to coach Matt Eberflus and offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to ensure Williams can be creative and still play on schedule. But all the hype is well-deserved if this singular player with poise, accuracy, and arm strength can quickly make him one of the NFL’s top signal callers.
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2. Washington Commanders: Jaden Daniels, QB, LSU – Grade: B
Without a doubt, this is a very exciting move for Washington to start a new day under Dan Quinn and Adam Peters. However, some people do not necessarily think this is a safe choice. Yes, the Heisman Trophy winner could have a big presence behind center. Still, Daniels needs to speed up his processing and learn how to attack the middle of the field. Above all, it’s up to managers to take advantage of his brilliant running skills and ability to pull defenses out of the pocket, while taking him off the trajectory of Justin Fields early in his career.
3. New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina State – Grade: B+
“We want to use offense as a weapon,” Patriots scouting director Elliott Wolf said at the combine. With Maye, New England definitely has the catalyst to provide a real spark. Uneven ball placement and risky decision-making may be a concern. However, many of Maye’s biggest issues can be solved with proper coaching, and he gives the Patriots someone who can attack all over the field with rare arm strength and a knack for making off-platform throws.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State – Grade: A
Despite all the speculation, there is no trade for Monty Ossenfort here. Unless he gets a huge offer, it makes sense for him to stay where he is. Harrison is one of the most dominant pass catchers in college football over the past decade, and it’s hard to find any significant flaws in his play. He could be a game-changer for Kyler Murray and the rest of Arizona’s offense.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Joe Alto, OT, Notre Dame – Grade: B-
If you haven’t heard about this team’s vision from Jim Harbaugh and Co. before, take note. Despite all the confusion surrounding the Bolts’ receiving corps, Harbaugh and general manager Joe Hortis chose to invest in a forward line where they have an onslaught of offense. Inheriting players like Malik Nabors and Roma Odunze will leave Los Angeles exposed to a fair amount of second-guessing, but Alto is a solid pass protector and could be paired with Rashawn Slater for the foreseeable future. He could give the Chargers a bookend tackle. However, the pressure is on to find players who can hit the ground running on Day 2 of the receiving corps.
6. New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU – Grade: A-
Breathe easy, Daniel Jones – at least for now. Not only did Big Blue decline the option of choosing a potential replacement for J.J. McCarthy, but the team’s upper management also equipped the incumbent starter with a legitimate reliable threat. Nabers is strong as both a downfield target and a run-after-catch threat, and could take much of the pressure off Jones as the quarterback returns from an injury-shortened campaign. If the Giants’ 1,000-yard receiver drought ends anytime soon (it dates back to another LSU product in 2018 in Odell Beckham Jr.), Nabors will be the one to break it.
7. Tennessee Titans: JC Latham, OT, Alabama – Grade: B
With Alto off the board, this was the appropriate response for Ran Carson. A tone-setter for the Crimson Tide, Latham is the kind of punitive presence the Titans covet. Even though he operates on the right side, Latham insists he can be a left tackle in the NFL. If Tennessee wants to try it, we’ll see if he can handle the role of protecting Will Revis’ blind side. But at least the Titans can feel comfortable with the top-notch athleticism and strength Latham displays on every snap.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington – Grade: C-
This was the first shock of the night and a truly wild decision. Atlanta appeared to be in winning mode after signing veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a highly anticipated four-year, $160 million contract this offseason. But instead of dealing with a dormant pass rush, Raheem Morris and his pals… took another quarterback. Penix turns 24 next month, and it’s unclear when he’ll be on the field with Cousins. His live arm unlocks new potential for Drake Rondon and Kyle Pitts, but he’s not a pinpoint passer. He also has major problems when pushed out of position and needs to develop the ability to attack the middle of the field.
9. Bears: Roman Odunze, WR, Washington – Grade: A-
Matt Eberflus may have wanted to go the defensive route and have someone to strengthen his front four, which was the right decision. Odunze is a do-it-all receiver who should have an electric relationship with Caleb Williams. He contrasts nicely with DJ Moore’s skill set and could learn the finer points of the position under Keenan Allen, who is only under contract for one more year. Most importantly, the jump balls that Williams is likely to loft will be much easier with the 6-3, 212-pounder bringing the ball to him.
10. Minnesota Vikings (from New York Jets): JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan – Grade: B-
Minnesota didn’t have to give up any compensation to secure a quarterback. This is an important win considering the tough position this franchise is in as it tries to reset itself while competing. Still, it’s no surprise that McCarthy is underwhelming as Kirk Cousins’ successor. Not only is the signal caller a bit of a mystery box following his time at Michigan, but Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is also intrigued to see the play from Cousins that the team would have gotten from, say, Drake Maye. It’s not even a change in style. However, McCarthy’s setup is very promising as it helps Kevin O’Connell be efficient early in his career with a lot of play-action and intermediate throws. It doesn’t hurt to have Justin Jefferson bailing you out.
11. New York Jets (from Minnesota Vikings): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State – Grade: B+
At first glance, acquiring a 21-year-old pass protector to replace Aaron Rodgers doesn’t seem to make sense for a team tasked with winning over a one- to two-year period. Still, Fashanu would benefit this team, even in the long run. The 6-6, 312-pounder is still raw (no wordplay intended), but he has all the physical tools to be a Pro Bowl regular at left tackle, especially his feet. There is. And Robert Saleh and others now have a very important insurance policy for injury-plagued blocker Tyron Smith, who hasn’t played a full season since 2016.
12. Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon State – Grade: C+
With the urgent need to acquire a quarterback and Denver not having a second-round pick, Denver may have been cornered in the process of acquiring a quarterback. But perhaps this is the signal-caller that best fits Sean Payton’s exacting style. With a record 61 starts in the Football Bowl Subdivision, Nix stands out from other rookies with his knowledge and experience. But that’s to be expected for a 24-year-old. He will need to prove he can develop his play after operating from a fast-break attack that provides a wealth of easy throws behind the line of scrimmage and underneath range. However, Payton will likely place a heavy emphasis on the screen game as he integrates the Knicks into his offense. But ultimately, the Knicks may not be able to sustain this team heading into the 2024 season, which could be more of a test than an improvement.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia – Grade: B
Who would have thought that the Raiders would have no options at quarterback at No. 13? This is certainly an unexpected landing spot for Bowers, who was expected to be in the top 10. The two-time Mackey Award winner will certainly be able to take pressure off Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell, who are big threats after the catch. However, it’s worth noting that NFL teams have a very spotty evaluation track record of first-round tight ends, no matter how much they can contribute to the offense. Holes at cornerback and right tackle will need to be addressed later.
14. New Orleans Saints:
15. Indianapolis Colts:
16. Seattle Seahawks:
17. Jacksonville Jaguars:
18. Cincinnati Bengals:
19. Los Angeles Rams:
20. Pittsburgh Steelers:
21. Miami Dolphins:
22. Philadelphia Eagles:
23. Vikings (from Cleveland Browns via Houston Texans):
24. Dallas Cowboys:
25. Green Bay Packers:
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
27. Cardinals (from Texans):
28. Buffalo Bills:
29. Detroit Lions:
30.Baltimore Ravens:
31. San Francisco 49ers:
32. Kansas City Chiefs:
