When Belgians go to the polls on June 9th, many of them will be voting for a party that seeks to divide the country.
Fringe parties are gaining strength across Europe, and in Belgium, a country divided along ethnic and linguistic lines, voters are expected to propel both the far-right and the far-left into parliament’s two largest parties.
“The explanation for both may be similar: populism,” says Audrey Vandereen of Ghent University. “They’re rejecting existing parties and looking for alternatives.”
Belgium’s far-right party, Vlaams Verandah (VB), which openly advocates separation for Flanders, the wealthy Dutch-speaking north of the country, is set to win the most seats in the deeply divided parliament, 26 of the 150 seats, according to opinion polls.
The second-largest group in parliament will be the far-left Workers’ Party (PTB/PVDA), based in the French-speaking southern region of Wallonia, which is expected to win 20 seats.
The rise of a once-minority party to the top could further complicate Belgium’s notoriously difficult struggle to form a government, a country that usually consists of more than a few parties.
In 2011, Belgium broke the world record for the longest period of peacetime anarchy. The current seven-party coalition government, led by Prime Minister Alexander de Croo, came to power after almost 500 days of negotiations. “One of the main aims of the Belgian far-right is to divide the country in two, and that would create chaos,” de Croo told the Financial Times.
Federal-level parties are likely to exclude VB from any power-sharing arrangement, but the separatist party could join the Flemish regional government. On June 9, Belgian voters will elect members of the federal and regional parliaments. For the first time, VB is expected to outperform the less radical nationalist N-VA party that currently governs Flanders.
The N-VA has not ruled out forming a coalition government with VB at the regional level, despite the fact that the party is an offshoot of the far-right Vlaams Bloc, which was effectively banned in 2004 for inciting racism and segregation. VB exploits the discontent of people who feel unrepresented by mainstream parties and blames immigration for economic problems such as the high cost of living.
At a village fair in Flimmelen, about 60 kilometers (37 miles) northeast of Brussels, VB recently set up a stall with the slogan “Flanders is ours again.”
Bert Klaas, a VB member of the Flemish parliament, said rural areas were “fertile ground” for his party, adding: “People have a legitimate feeling that they have been abandoned and forgotten by policymakers.”
The party’s leader, Tom van Grieken, argues that Flanders’ separation from Belgium is not just a “romantic” ideal but “it’s also a financial issue” and that the northern region should not bear the costs of the less wealthy Wallonia.
“Belgium has to change,” Van Grieken said. “The Belgian elite are very conscious and aware of climate change and the end of the world. Many Flemish people are worried about the end of this month.”
Jarno Prinsen, 26, a dockworker at the port of Antwerp from Frimelen, said VB was the only organisation taking the problem of illegal migrants in Belgium seriously. He complained that asylum seekers are treated better than Belgians without working. “I think this is a negative for the rest of the people who work hard but earn less,” he added.
Despite Van Grieken’s push for secession, analysts and even Flemish supporters are skeptical that it will go ahead, as it would trigger a constitutional crisis and call into question the status of the capital, Brussels, a bilingual region within Flanders.
“They’re a bit extreme. [power] “They should calm down,” said Veer Oosthuizen, a 44-year-old VB supporter who helps renovate the building.
While Flanders is dominated by right-wing parties, the opposite is true in Wallonia, where the Socialist Party (PS) is dominant and its challengers come from the far left rather than the far right.
At a Socialist rally in Charleroi on May Day, supporters waved red flags and sang the International Workers’ Song. “I come from a socialist family, so I’m voting for the Socialist party,” said Guillaume Thirion, a 23-year-old communications student whose family has worked in factories for generations. “The Socialist party is the only true workers’ party.”
However, the banner has also been carried by the Workers’ Party, one of the few transnational parties which also campaigns in Flanders, with moderate success.
In Wallonia, the Workers’ Party’s campaign for an end to taxing the rich and austerity measures is gaining momentum. The party is currently third in French-speaking France with 16 percent support, down from 11 percent in the last regional elections. The party also has 16 percent support in Brussels, and opinion polls suggest that 11 percent of the vote in Flanders would give it second place in parliament.
“People feel they are no longer represented,” said Workers’ Party Secretary-General Peter Mertens. “There is a huge gap between the political situation and the reality on the factory floor.”
Mertens said his party, unlike the far-right, was trying to frame the issue in a “positive” way: “They are trying to stoke people’s anger against other people in distress, against refugees.”
Mertens predicted that VB’s “dangerous plans” for independence would fail. “It is no coincidence that this is the land of surrealism,” Mertens said, referring to Belgium’s famous artistic movement. “In this surrealist Belgium we are more united together than apart.”
Didier Caluwaerts, a professor at the Free University of Brussels (VUB), said the two regions had historically been divided along party lines, saying “Flanders has always been more conservative and more right-wing than Wallonia.”
Wallonia had large industries and was Belgium’s “economic heartland” until around the 1950s, but then investment shifted to Flanders and the industrial base in French-speaking areas declined, Kalwartz said. This “economic legacy”, combined with high unemployment and low economic growth, was why the left was strong in Wallonia, he added.
If the VB were to form a coalition with the N-VA at the regional level, it could have negative repercussions for the federal government, as other parties would be forced to shun the two parties, PS leader Paul Magnet said. “It’s out of the question to work with people who work with the far right.”
“It’s true that there is a general tendency towards political fragmentation in Europe,” Magnet said. “Belgium has always been able to govern itself no matter what happens. We are an example that you can do it even when things get too complicated.”
Additional reporting by Alice Hancock in Mons
