The good news for President Joe Biden is that he appears to have crawled out of the political hole he found himself in this winter: His overall approval rating has increased since January, according to a new national poll from NBC News. The poll rose 5 points and is now just a 2-point difference among registered voters, who are now trailing former President Donald Trump, down from a 5-point lead three months ago.
The bad news for Biden is that his current political position is back to where it was in the fall of 2023, when his re-election prospects were already shaky.
This highlights an important point regarding the 2024 presidential election, with just six months left. In other words, the Biden-Trump race is surprisingly stable, surprisingly competitive, and the move is within the margin of error.
For example, consider a two-way vote between Biden and Trump. For almost a year, Trump’s vote share has hovered between 45% and 47% of registered voters, matching his share of the popular vote in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Meanwhile, Biden’s approval rating has hovered between a high of 49% in the summer of 2023 and a low of 42% in January.
Or look at Biden’s approval rating, which has been consistently below 45% since early January 2023 and hit a low of 37% in the first month of this year. The latest opinion poll puts it at 42%.
Or look at the favorability ratings of both Biden and Trump. This is about the same.
- Mr. Biden: 38% positive, 52% negative (net rating -14)
- Mr. Trump: 38% positive, 53% negative (net rating minus 15)
Alternatively, take the name at the top of the ticket out of the equation and focus on Congress’ stable support in the polls. Currently, the latest NBC poll shows that 47% want a Republican-led Congress, while 46% want a Democratic one. Political parties have been locked into their competitive positions for years. An NBC News poll shows that Republican support has not moved more than 2 points in either direction since August 2021, while Democratic support has moved outside that range only once.
So despite all the news, developments and drama over the past year, this race has barely moved. And it’s very close.
But the latest NBC News poll also points to at least three wild cards that could upset this stability.
The first is President Trump’s criminal trial in New York. He faces multiple criminal charges and legal challenges; helped An NBC poll pitting him against Republican primary voters in 2023 and earlier this year found that 50% of voters said he was treated by the same standards as those accused of such crimes, and 43% said he was treated by the same standards as those accused of such crimes. It found that % of respondents believed he was being unfairly targeted.
This majority says Mr. Trump is being held to the same standard as everyone else, which is higher than Mr. Biden would receive in a head-to-head contest with the former president. Bottom line: Legal challenges, at least for now, do not appear to be a political win for President Trump with ordinary voters.
Another potential wildcard is third-party voting. The conventional wisdom in recent months has been that the larger the third-party vote, the worse it will be for Biden. And if the third-party vote exceeds 6%, it could still happen, given Trump’s consistent 46% to 47% chance of winning.
But an NBC News poll shows independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is hurting Trump more than he’s currently hurting Biden.
And the final wild card is the final turnout for the 2024 presidential election. As our poll finds, interest in the contest is at its lowest level in nearly 20 years, and turnout in November could be significantly lower than in 2020. It is suggested.
Lower turnout could be in Trump’s favor, given that more Republicans (70%) are highly interested than Democrats (65%), according to an NBC News poll. Or?
Or is it an advantage for Biden, given that many of the voters who claim to support Trump did not participate in the 2020 or 2022 midterm elections?
These are all reasons why a stable race can quickly become unstable and unpredictable.
