To find out the battle lines for Arizona’s political future, head to a dirt patch along Carefree Highway on the edge of Phoenix. There, Arizona’s big ambitions and bitter grievances are separated by a wire fence.
Meanwhile, new silvery microchip factories are sprouting from the desert. It’s part of a $50 billion technology investment by the Biden administration that is expected to create tens of thousands of jobs and make Arizona a new tech powerhouse. New employees from home and abroad gather in a newly built Spanish-tiled house nearby, and the school has already added semiconductor training.
But on the other side of the fence, roadside stalls are booming in opposition to President Biden. Every morning, they display Confederate flags and line tables with Trump hats and crude banners mocking Biden. “I don’t give him any credit,” said Mike Conley, 73, a California immigrant who sells ammunition out of the back of his pickup truck.
Arizona feels like the convergence spot for nearly all of 2024’s pivotal political clashes. In Arizona, a border state rife with active fault lines over abortion, inflation, immigration, and election conspiracies, major demographic changes have transformed Arizona from a reliably Republican state with little contest in national politics. Moved to the hotbed of the desert. Everything is available.
“Disruption is certainly the word that comes to mind right now, on all fronts,” said former Gov. Fife Symington, a Republican in the 1990s. “With the influx of immigrants and unparalleled growth, a lot of things have changed. It’s a completely changed state.”
At the state Capitol, anti-abortion conservatives and abortion rights supporters have spent weeks in a fierce battle to repeal an 1864 anti-abortion law that was upheld and reinstated by the state Supreme Court.
The repeal effort moved forward last week with bipartisan support and could pass the Republican-controlled Arizona Senate as soon as Wednesday. Even if enacted, the 1864 ban fueled a voting campaign to add abortion rights to the state constitution and ensured that abortion would remain at the center of Arizona politics until November.
The desert region south of Tucson has seen more migrants cross the border so far this year than any other part of the 3,000-mile southern border. The influx has caused tensions in border towns and revived calls for stronger border security among some moderates and Latinos. voters.
Across Phoenix, consumers suffered some of the nation’s highest inflation rates early in Biden’s term, largely due to soaring home prices. Price increases have subsided, but many voters remain dissatisfied with the economy despite Arizona’s rapid growth and low unemployment rate.
On top of all this, Arizona’s new attorney general, Democrat Chris Mays, last week accused former President Donald J. Trump of collusion against allies of former President Donald J. Criminal charges were filed for fraud.
“You can’t keep track of who goes to prison and who doesn’t. Life here is very chaotic,” said former Gov. Jan Brewer, a Republican from 2009 to 2015. he said.
Arizona’s population has increased to approximately 7.4 million people, double what it was in 1990. The state’s progress is being driven by the growing number of Latino voters, who now represent one in three Arizonans. It has also been shaped by moderate newcomers from California and beyond. They will shed their partisan registration like a winter coat when they go to Arizona, joining the 34 percent of voters who are not officially affiliated with any political party.
Sharon Harper, a real estate company executive who is close to Republican Sen. John McCain, has rejected Trump-aligned candidates in the past three major elections, saying that an increasingly moderate electorate is seeking stability. He said that ”
At the same time, Arizona’s Republican Party, long accustomed to controlling the Legislature and statewide offices, has shifted sharply to the right, with the most recent Senate elections, the 2020 presidential election and the 2022 gubernatorial election. In , voters completely rejected the Republican Party in favor of the Democratic Party. Race.
“The Republican Party is just the gift that keeps on giving,” said former Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano, who ruled in the early 2000s. “They’re really controlled by the far right and election deniers. And boy did that help in 2022. And I think it might help this fall as well.”
Or maybe not. Recent polls of Arizonans show Mr. Trump has the lead, and a New York Times/Siena poll of the battleground state late last year found that 53% of voters approve of the economy. Poor.” And Republicans are hoping voters will vent their anger over immigration and the cost of living rather than punishing Republicans for abortion regulations.
Mike McCreary, 33, a plumber who moved to Arizona from Ohio 10 years ago, said he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and then for Barack Obama four years before that. Told. But over the weekend, he stopped by the side of the Carefree Highway to buy a hat and cheer on a Trump vendor.
“I make a lot of money, but it’s still not enough,” he said.
And Arizona’s far-right, anti-government tendencies date back decades and could still sway elections. In rural Arizona, moderate Republicans have tried unsuccessfully to oust far-right politicians like Rep. Paul Gosar.
Registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats by 6 percentage points in the state, an advantage that has widened slightly over the past two years. Mike Noble, founder of the Phoenix polling firm Noble Predictive Insights, said far-right candidates “absolutely proved they can win primaries.”
“But in the general election, they haven’t cracked the code yet,” he added.
Since the state’s inception, Arizona’s growth and economy have been supported by federal funding in the form of military bases, large reservoirs, and 330 miles of canals from the Colorado River. Billions of dollars are now flowing across the Valley of the Sun in battery factories, green energy production, and computer chips.
Arizona’s fate in November will likely hinge on Maricopa County, the state’s political center, home to Phoenix and 60 percent of the state’s population.
“The county is dramatically different than it was 10 to 20 years ago,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Phoenix political consultant who worked for Mr. McCain. “The state’s explosive growth in high-tech industries is attracting more high-paying jobs and a population that is better educated, has more money, and is more connected to the global economy. ”
Many of these new members lean toward the Democratic Party. “They’re winning within the Loop 202 that surrounds metro Phoenix,” Coughlin said, using another name for the South Mountain Freeway. “Most of what’s inside that loop is purple, if not blue.”
Eli Cox, 25, a middle school math teacher in Phoenix, voted Libertarian in the 2020 presidential election, but says the stakes in Arizona are too high this year to gamble with his vote. Stated. He said he would vote for Biden.
He is shaken when his sister calls him tearfully with the news that the 1864 Abortion Act has been upheld, and that a second Trump presidency will lead to mass deportations and foreign conflicts. He said he was worried that it might happen.
“That’s scary,” he said. “I feel like we’re going backwards. The discussion is not about how do we give people more freedom, but how do we take away their freedom?” ”
Triana Herrera, 20, an aspiring medical assistant from Phoenix, said she plans to vote for the first time this year in hopes of reuniting families torn apart by U.S. immigration laws. Her father was deported to Mexico when she was 3 years old, and she has been criticized by family members and others like those mentioned in immigration debates that focus on border walls, drug smuggling, human trafficking, and immigration deterrents. have not heard of the plight of
“I want to bring my parents here so they can have a better life,” she said.
But some voters say they’re not motivated to vote this year, no matter the stakes. Recognizing the similarities she says in the problems facing Native Americans and Palestinians, Navajo Natasha John spent months raising funds to help people in the Gaza Strip. gathered and held a meeting.
She said she cares deeply about preserving laws that protect abortion rights and Indigenous parental rights. But she is so alienated by the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s military action in Gaza that she won’t vote in November, she said. “Why feed into that system?” she said.
Alberto Rios, Arizona Poet Laureate and director of Arizona State University’s Center for Creative Writing, grew up in the Mexican border town of Nogales. He said few newcomers, including those who eventually ran for office, understood the state’s vast complexities.
Take a look at a recent scene he saw at the Nogales border crossing. A crowd of boys gathered next to a towering wall meant to stop illegal immigration, topped by a line of giant lights. As the sun set, the lights began to shine. “Boom, boom, boom, boom,” he said – and the boys cheered.
Then they started shooting basketballs at hoops attached to the border wall.
Rowan Moore Gerety contributed reporting and Susan Beachy contributed research.
