After Congress debacle in Punjab, AAP faces challenge of finding new commander

Following the disappointing electoral results in the recent Lok Sabha elections in Punjab, the only fully fledged state where Ahmed’s (AAP) is in power, the party seems tasked with grooming a second-tier leadership, especially from the Dalit community, to take on the fight ahead.

As per the election results data, in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AAP is set to win only 9 seats out of the 34 assembly segments reserved for Scheduled Castes (SCs), which are part of Punjab’s 13 assembly constituencies. Interestingly, SCs constitute around 32% of the state’s population, the highest percentage of SC population among Indian states. In this LS election, the Indian National Congress put up an impressive show, registering victory in 14 reserved seats. Notably, in the 2022 Assembly elections, AAP has bagged 28 reserved seats.

The AAP, which came to power in Punjab with an overwhelming majority in 2022, winning 92 of the 117 seats, could only win three of the 13 seats in the 2024 elections. AAP’s poor performance is seen as a blow to the party, especially Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who led the party’s Lok Sabha campaign. Only towards the end of the campaign did AAP supremo and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal campaign for the party for a short time after he was granted interim bail till June 1, 2024 by the Supreme Court in the liquor policy case.

Following Kejriwal’s arrest, his wife Sunita Kejriwal has stepped up her involvement within the party. Party sources said a number of Punjab legislators met her in recent days to discuss the party’s crushing defeat in the Lok Sabha elections. Though the party has rejected any discussion of leadership change in the state, people familiar with the matter said their views had also been sought on a possible leadership change at the top level in the state.

“Following Kejriwal’s arrest, state Congress members have met Sunita and conveyed the message that we are united in support of her and Kejriwal. There have been no discussions about a change of chief minister,” AAP Punjab president Budh Ram told The Hindu on Wednesday.

AAP’s low voter turnout among the reserved sections indicates the party’s declining popularity among Dalit communities and other vulnerable sections, for various reasons. However, some in the party and political commentators are of the opinion that a leader from the SC community should be elevated to the top post to lead the party and fill the void of Dalit leadership in the state.

“AAP’s performance in the reserved assembly constituencies in the Lok Sabha clearly indicates that the party has lost support among SC and weaker sections, which could be due to broken promises or other reasons. The party clearly needs to create and strengthen a second leadership, especially if it can promote leadership from the Dalit community, which may help it gain the confidence of ‘Dalit’ voters ahead of the 2027 Punjab Assembly elections. Moreover, there are several issues surrounding Dalits that have been lingering since the previous government, and if these are resolved, it could consolidate the vote base in the ruling party’s favour to some extent,” said Surinder Singh, assistant professor of political science at Punjab University’s Rural Centre, Kauni, Muktsar Sahib.