With France’s parliament in a hanging state in Sunday’s general election, where the left-wing coalition is leading but not winning an absolute majority, we take a look at what could happen next.
What happened in the second round of voting on Sunday?
Polls project that the left-leaning New Popular Front coalition will win the most seats but will fall short of the 289 needed to secure a majority in the lower house.
The result was a heavy defeat for the far-right National Rally (RN), which had been expected to win the vote but struggled after the NFP and President Emmanuel Macron’s Together coalition cooperated between the first and second rounds to generate an anti-RN vote.
Predictions had RN expected to come in third behind Together.
This means that none of the three blocs can form a majority government and will need support from the others to pass legislation.
Will a left-wing coalition form?
This is by no means certain.
France is not accustomed to forming coalition governments after elections, a style common in Nordic parliamentary democracies such as Germany and the Netherlands.
The Fifth Republic, designed in 1958 by war hero Charles de Gaulle to give the president a large and stable parliamentary majority, created a confrontational political culture with no tradition of consensus or compromise.
Raphael Glucksmann, a moderate-left member of the European Parliament, said politicians had to “act like adults”.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the far-left Independence France (LFI) party, ruled out a broad coalition government and said Macron had a duty to call on a left-wing coalition to take power.
On the centrist side, Macron’s leader, Stephane Séjourne, is open to working with mainstream parties but has ruled out any pact with Mélenchon’s Liberal Democrats. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has also ruled out any pact with the far-left.
Macron himself said he would wait until the new parliament had some kind of “structure” in place before deciding on his next steps.
What happens if no agreement can be reached?
It will be uncharted territory for France, whose constitution means President Macron cannot call new parliamentary elections for the next 12 months.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said he would submit his resignation to President Macron on Monday morning but was prepared to act as caretaker prime minister.
The constitution says Macron will decide who he asks to form a government, but whoever he chooses will be subject to a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, which meets for a 15-day session starting July 18. That means Macron must nominate someone acceptable to a majority of lawmakers.
Macron would likely want to separate the Socialist and Green parties from the left-wing coalition, isolate an “unbending France” and form a center-left coalition with his own camp.
However, at this stage there were no signs that the New Popular Front would collapse anytime soon.
Another possibility is a technocratic government that manages day-to-day operations but does not oversee structural change.
It is not clear whether left-leaning forces would support this scenario, which would still require parliamentary support.
Published July 8, 2024 01:22 IST
