Until tonight: A few showers and storms will be possible through the middle of the night. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. Scattered fog is also possible around sunrise. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid 60s F.
See the Washington Post Current Weather
Tomorrow (Sunday): Temperatures will be in the mid-80s to near 90s F, like summer, but it may feel a few degrees hotter due to uncomfortable dew point temperatures in the mid-60s to near 70s F. Shifting clouds will block out the sun, but overall it will be a bright day, although afternoon showers and storms are possible. Rain is likely Saturday through Sunday morning, but the chances of rain are not very high in absolute terms.
Overnight conditions will be humid and cloudy with moderate showers and storms expected to continue. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s Fahrenheit.
Severe Memorial Day storms possible
There may be a bigger update tomorrow, but it’s worth at least a quick update that there is a slight (Level 2 chance) threat that some of the storms that may move through Monday could gain significant strength.
Potential threats include damaging winds, large hail, a few tornadoes and heavy rainfall causing localized flooding (excess rainfall graph below) Monday afternoon and evening.
Highly reliable aspects of severe weather potential:
Dew points will likely reach 70 degrees or higher, providing fuel for summer-like storms.
Moist air and significant humidity – heavy rains causing flooding possible (above)
During the day, a trough of low pressure passes through and becomes the focus of the storm (see diagram below).
Unreliable aspects of severe weather potential:
· Low pressure and a warm front may be too far away from Washington DC, limiting the chances of widespread severe storms (above)
· Significant cloud cover is likely, limiting the extent of thunderstorms and the area affected (figure below).
· Overhead factors may be in place: A mid-level atmospheric jet stream (rotation/instability) and an upper mixed layer (EML) may create explosive convection that may favor the eastern and southern sides of the region.
· As the daytime maximum is reached, the vorticity becomes somewhat closer, and the instability and rotation of the atmosphere becomes sufficient to counteract other limiting factors.
· Energy available for convection (CAPE) could rise, but could it tend to be significantly higher, as predicted in some background simulations?
· Rain chances may decrease late Sunday night into Monday morning, with more fuel and instability increasing the chance of afternoon storm development.
We hope that some of these known and unknown pieces of information will help you understand the situation and keep this threat in mind without worrying. The only action required for now is to continue to tune in to us and other trusted news outlets to monitor the latest data so we can better understand this prediction.
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