Apple is once again in the crosshairs of a global trade war. This time, the stakes may be even higher.
On April 2, President Donald Trump signed a sweeping executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs on a wide range of imported goods, including those from China, India, Vietnam and other countries critical to Apple’s supply chain. That move sent shockwaves through global markets, wiping out over $640 billion in Apple’s market value in just five days.
“It’s the most head-scratching, absurd policy move we’ve seen in years,” said Dan Ives, managing director at Wedbush Securities. “Apple is in the eye of the storm.”
CNBC technology reporter Kif Leswing calls it a “massive moment for Apple.”
“Even with all their efforts to diversify production, the company still depends on China, and now they’re facing tariffs from nearly every country they manufacture in,” Leswing said.
While the stock rebounded on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for select nations, the broader uncertainty around Apple’s global manufacturing model hasn’t gone away. China tariffs remain at a staggering 145%.
“No company is more impacted by this tariff Armageddon than Apple,” Ives said.
Apple still assembles 90% of its iPhones in China, largely through its partnership with Foxconn. China also handles 80% of iPads and over half of Mac computers, according to Evercore ISI.
“Apple’s been trying to get ahead of this,” Leswing said. “They’ve been making iPhones in India, assembling Macs in Malaysia, sourcing from Vietnam, but those countries are now seeing tariffs too. That puts Apple in a really tough spot.”
India, Vietnam and Thailand were all key parts of Apple’s post-COVID diversification strategy. Under Trump’s new plan, imports from many of those countries face tariffs as high as 26% to 46%, although the president reduced most tariffs to 10% on Wednesday.
Still, the message from the White House is clear: Apple needs to make products in the U.S.
In theory, tariffs are meant to bring jobs and production back to the U.S. In practice, moving high-tech manufacturing out of China is neither fast nor cheap.
“If you want an iPhone made in the U.S. and you want it for $3,500, we should make it here,” said Ives. “If you want it for $1,000, you keep it in China.”
The iPhone 16 Pro Max currently starts at $1,199, but one UBS estimate shows that new tariffs could raise the price by $350. Erik Woodring of Morgan Stanley estimates Apple may need to increase prices across the board by 17% to 18% to cover the added cost.
Apple has started building some iPhones in India and iPads in Vietnam, but the company remains heavily reliant on China’s infrastructure, skilled labor force, and dense manufacturing network.
“It would take decades just to move 10% of Apple’s supply chain to the U.S.,” Ives said. “The global supply chain is built in Asia.”
As panic rippled through the markets, Apple kept quiet. The company has declined to comment publicly on the tariffs and has offered no updated guidance to suppliers or shareholders.
That stands in contrast to 2019, when CEO Tim Cook personally lobbied the first Trump administration to exempt iPhones from a previous round of tariffs, and succeeded. This time, no carve-outs have been announced.
“It’s kind of a cipher right now, what Tim Cook is cooking up in Cupertino,” said Leswing. “They’ve said very little.”
According to reporting from 9To5Mac, Apple has started modeling out different tariff scenarios and even chartered at least five planes in late March to stockpile products before tariffs took effect.
Analysts say Apple’s options are limited in the short term. The company is expected to delay price hikes until its next product cycle, likely with the iPhone 17, but that could impact demand in a cooling smartphone market.
Apple already faces pressure over its slow rollout of artificial intelligence features and stagnating hardware innovation. If the tariffs remain in place, or escalate further, the ripple effects could be massive.
“This could throw the U.S. into a self-inflicted recession,” Ives said.
So far, investors are watching closely for signs of a shift in strategy or a more forceful response from Apple leadership.
“Apple is the poster child for the trade war,” said Leswing. “And right now, they’re not saying much at all.”
Watch the video to understand how tariffs are shaking Apple’s supply chain and what it could mean for your next iPhone.
