WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly concerned that a strengthening military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could significantly expand Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, six senior U.S. officials told NBC News.
U.S. officials said North Korea was also preparing for its most provocative military action in a decade ahead of the U.S. presidential election, possibly at the urging of Putin.
They say the timing could be designed to sow chaos in other parts of the world as Americans decide whether to return President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump to the White House.
“There’s no question North Korea will be provocative this year. The question is just how much it escalates,” a U.S. intelligence official said.
U.S. intelligence officials have accused Russia of meddling in the 2016 election to help Trump win the election. The Biden administration has had a tense relationship with Russia, which collapsed after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Putin is expected to visit North Korea within weeks and meet with Kim Jong Un, and U.S. officials expect the two sides to solidify a new agreement to expand the transfer of military technology to Pyongyang.
“2024 is not going to be a good year,” said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia and Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s going to be a bit of a roller coaster.”
A growing alliance
U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for North Korea sending huge amounts of munitions to Russia for the Ukraine war, U.S. officials said. North Korea has provided Russia with more munitions, including millions of artillery shells, than Europe is providing to Ukraine.
Officials are also concerned that Russia could help North Korea complete the final steps needed to deploy its first submarine capable of firing nuclear-tipped missiles at the country.
North Korea in September unveiled a submarine based on a Soviet model, but U.S. officials say Pyongyang has likely exaggerated its capabilities and that the submarine still needs additional technology before it can deploy or launch nuclear-tipped missiles.
The United States has not held substantive talks with the Kim regime for three years despite repeated offers to begin talks without preconditions, officials said, and the regime tried to reach out to North Korea again this year without a response.
U.S. officials said they did not have a full picture of the type of technology Russia was supplying to North Korea, and that unlike weapons transfers that can be physically tracked, the sharing of military technology is not as easily detected.
“Russia’s more advanced technical assistance is done in ways that are very difficult to monitor,” the official said.
U.S. officials warned that the North Korean munitions were probably old and unreliable, but the influx gave Russia a battlefield advantage because North Korea’s artillery deployment came at a time when Ukraine was struggling with ammunition stockpiles and had to ration its supplies.
Officials said North Korea wants ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles and other advanced technology from Russia in exchange for the munitions it is providing to Moscow.
U.S. officials have warned that North Korea has continued to make advances in its missile program in recent months, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile and other incremental advances that make the missile program more credible.
North Korea has long sought to develop a long-range ballistic missile that could travel thousands of miles and re-enter the atmosphere with its payload intact. U.S. officials have warned that Russia could help it achieve that final stage. A missile capable of carrying a nuclear weapon and surviving re-entry would pose a major threat to U.S. missile defense systems.
U.S. officials also said North Korea has seen increased activity at one of its nuclear test sites, possibly indicating preparations for a new test. Satellite images released in April by the Beyond Parallel Korea Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington showed activity in the third tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility.
“Both the United States and South Korea assess that North Korea has completed all necessary preparations to conduct its seventh nuclear test from the tunnel,” the group said.
The Biden administration has long anticipated a North Korean nuclear test, and the United States recently drew up contingency plans for how to respond if Kim Jong Un took aggressive action in the DMZ with South Korea or shelled islands on the South Korean border, something he has not done since 2010.
“We will be fully prepared,” the official said, referring to cooperation with South Korea and Japan.
U.S. officials said they were also concerned about the possibility of Moscow helping North Korea make domestic weapons and even building a partnership for the defense industrial base.
“October surprise”?
Russia may hesitate to take provocative action, regardless of whether Putin encourages Kim to stage a so-called “October surprise” in the U.S. election, the second senior administration official said. China, which has grown closer to Russia and backed Putin’s war in Ukraine, generally does not want to destabilize the region, the official said.
Still, U.S. officials acknowledge there is much that remains unknown about the Russia-North Korea alliance and what it will hold for the foreseeable future. Two wars have erupted since Biden took office, one between Ukraine and Israel and Hamas, and they are likely to increase tensions in the Asia-Pacific region.
Trump has argued that both wars were the result of Biden’s leadership and would not have happened if he were president – a claim Biden White House officials have vigorously disputed.
Putin’s increasingly close relationship with Kim Jong Un marks a big change from the past, when Russia worked with the United States to rein in North Korea. Moscow now wields its veto power in the U.N. Security Council, giving it an excuse to circumvent sanctions aimed at curbing North Korea’s nuclear program.
“This is a major shift,” a second senior administration official said.
