Axis My India CEO speaks out on allegations of stock market manipulation through exit polls

NEW DELHI: Facing criticism from opposition parties over allegations that exit polls were being used to manipulate stock prices, Axis My India president Pradeep Gupta said he was open to any kind of investigation and would be better able to do business if the government came up with specific regulations for polling firms.

Stock markets soared after exit polls showed the BJP had a landslide majority, but then plummeted when actual results showed the ruling party did not have a majority on its own. Opposition parties and several civil society groups have been calling for a thorough investigation by capital markets regulator SEBI and the Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC), among others.

In an exchange with PTI Meeting with the editor-in-chief at the organisation’s headquarters in the country, Gupta said he has been calling for norms and regulations for pollsters for the past five years.Gupta, chairman and managing director of Axis My India, which had predicted the BJP-led coalition to win between 361 and 401 seats, termed the demand for a ban on exit polls “childish” and said every person, every organisation, wanted to know the election results and banning exit polls would be pointless.

“We have nothing to do with the stock market but we are happy to learn of these allegations because our data and systems are highly robust and any investigation would be an opportunity to show the world everything that is being used to predict the exit polls. In a way, this is an opportunity for us, an opportunity to show our credibility so I support the requests,” he said.

Asked whether he would accept an investigation by the JPC or SEBI, the poll worker said, “We are ready to undertake any type of investigation.”

“Regardless of whether I have profited from the share price surge or not, I do not have a demat account with Axis My India. The company is an unlisted limited company and there has been no outside investment till date, no promoter investment either. My personal investment since April is just Rs 35,000. Where have I profited?” he alleged.

The polling agency also responded to allegations that Axis My India had conducted exit polls for foreign investors and reported different findings.

“We have not been approached by any foreign investment agency, we have never worked for any foreign investors or conducted exit polls for them,” Gupta said.

Gupta called the demand for a ban on exit polls “childish” and said specific regulations on pollsters would not only improve our business but also increase the credibility of exit polls. He also denied any conflict of interest with exit polls, saying 70% of Axis My India’s clients are corporate clients, including big names like the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

“First they said exit polls are unscientific and now they want to ban them. This is childish talk. Every citizen and organisation wants to know the election results and banning exit polls will have no effect. Exit polls are not just for knowing who will win or lose but also help political parties analyse the results.”

“As for us, I said 70% of my clients are corporate clients. If corporates are banned, it will not affect our business. Whatever the verdict, I will abide by the law,” he added.

Asked whether the negative publicity caused by the 2024 election results was affecting its corporate clients, Gupta said: “They hire us for the work we do for them, not based on how well we predicted the election results.”

“For the last five years, I have been running around everywhere seeking regulation. Whenever our staff go to the field, they are met with suspicion. We have to convince them that we are not salesmen, con men or sent by a political party. We are often asked who gave the permission. We ask them to tell us where we need to get the permission. We wrote to the Ministry of Home Affairs and were directed to the Ministry of Law, who said there is no law and we need one first. From there, we were referred to the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, who asked us to register and set up a branch there. They said they will publish the findings but who will monitor whether someone is right or wrong… Nothing has changed but I strongly believe that regulation is necessary,” he said.

Axis My India has been conducting exit polls since 2013, when Gupta returned from Harvard Business School, and claims to have correctly predicted 61 of 65 elections.

Asked why Axis My India does not disclose that some political parties are also its clients, Gupta said, “In the 2019 Haryana Assembly elections, the BJP was one of our clients and our exit polls had predicted a hung assembly, which turned out to be true.”

“This prediction is also part of a Harvard Business School case study and it also involves disclosure. If the client agrees to disclosure, we have nothing to hide,” Gupta added.