Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan’s top leadership has approved the launch of a new military operation aimed at quelling the escalating violence.
The operation, called “Azm-e-Isteqam,” Urdu for “determination for stability,” was announced after Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif led a weekend review of the country’s “counter-terror” operations, particularly the National Action Plan adopted after the December 2014 attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar, which left more than 140 people, mostly students, dead and claimed by the Pakistani Taliban, known as the TTP.
The new military plans are expected to focus on domestic security threats and militant militants crossing the border from Afghanistan amid rising tensions between the Pakistani government and the Taliban regime in Kabul. A statement from Sharif’s office on June 22 noted plans to “strengthen” efforts to curb “terrorists” through regional cooperation with Pakistan’s neighbors.
“The campaign will be complemented by socio-economic measures aimed at addressing people’s genuine concerns and creating an environment that discourages extremist tendencies,” the statement added.
But the new operation is only the latest in a series of military operations Pakistan has launched aimed at quelling militant violence, and its timing raises questions about the motivation for the effort and what it might accomplish. Pakistan previously announced a military operation in April 2023, under former prime minister Sharif, but no formal operation was launched.
Tensions in Afghanistan
While no official start date for Operation Azm-e-Istekam has been announced, the announcement comes at a time when Afghanistan has seen a sharp increase in violence over the past 18 months, with most of these attacks claimed by the TTP, which is ideologically aligned with the Afghan Taliban.
The TTP unilaterally ended the ceasefire in November 2022 and Pakistan has repeatedly accused Kabul of harboring them, an accusation the Taliban government, which took power in August 2021, has consistently denied.
If Pakistan’s military operations expand into Afghanistan, as analysts predict in light of recent events, already strained relations between the two countries could be further tested.
“In March, Pakistan carried out cross-border attacks in Afghanistan on suspected Pakistani Taliban hideouts, which were officially acknowledged by the foreign ministry,” Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based security analyst, said in an interview with Al Jazeera.
Tipu, who is also director of The Khorasan Diary, a news and research portal that analyzes security issues in the region, added that Islamabad believes the aggressive use of military force, known in military jargon as “kinetic action,” is the most effective way to counter armed violence.
China trigger or domestic politics?
According to available data, Pakistan experienced around 700 violent incidents in 2023, resulting in around 1,000 casualties. Most attacks took place in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the southwestern province of Balochistan, with law enforcement personnel often being targeted.
Violent attacks have continued in 2024, including targeting Chinese facilities and personnel in both the north and south of the country. In March, a convoy of Chinese engineers was attacked, killing at least five Chinese and one Pakistani.
China, one of Pakistan’s main allies, is investing $62 billion in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development projects. Sharif and Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Muneer, undertook a five-day visit to China earlier this month, with the safety of Chinese people and interests at the forefront of their agenda.
Chinese official Liu Jianchao, during a visit to Pakistan last week, reiterated the importance of protecting China’s interests in the country. “We need to improve security and the business environment. In the case of Pakistan, the security situation is the main factor shaking the confidence of Chinese investors,” Liu told representatives of Pakistan’s major political parties on June 21 during his three-day visit.
But Asfandyar Mir, a South Asia expert at the United States Institute of Peace, said while Chinese concerns likely influenced Pakistan’s leadership, the timing of the new operation was driven more by domestic political and economic considerations.
“Last year, Pakistan faced a near-default on its debt and experienced contested elections amid deepening political turmoil in the country. A large-scale military operation was not feasible under these circumstances,” Mir told Al Jazeera.
“With elections over, a stable government in place and a relatively stable economy, Pakistan’s leadership likely believes it has the domestic political space and economic stability it needs to mount an aggressive campaign to address the deteriorating security situation,” Mir added.
Will the new controls work?
Abdul Sayed, a Sweden-based researcher who studies militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan, is skeptical the operation will be successful.
Said said militant groups were now primarily targeting security forces to undermine government interests while preventing them from losing public support. In provinces hardest hit by armed violence, a lack of public support for security forces “could undermine the effectiveness of operations,” he told Al Jazeera.
Tipu pointed to the temporary nature of TTP bases in Pakistan and possible escalation of tensions with Afghanistan as other challenges that the security forces may face.
“The Pakistani Taliban does not have a permanent base in Pakistan, instead operating from temporary bases which they change locations frequently,” he said. “If Pakistan were to conduct cross-border operations in Afghanistan, it could escalate tensions between the two countries.”
Meanwhile, while China is pressuring Pakistan to crack down on armed violence, Mir said China is not entirely on the same page as Islamabad when it comes to the current government in Kabul, given its strategic ties with the Taliban.
“Pakistan and China are at odds on how to deal with the Taliban. A military operation carrying out cross-border attacks to pressure the Taliban could challenge Beijing’s stance on Afghanistan,” Mir warned.
