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Beijing and Manila have held talks to manage tensions over a reef in the South China Sea that has become one of the Indo-Pacific region’s most dangerous flashpoints and which the United States has warned is covered by a defense treaty with the Philippines.
Chinese and Philippine diplomats discussed the situation on Second Thomas Shoal in Manila on Tuesday. In recent months, the Chinese coast guard has adopted increasingly aggressive tactics to block the delivery of supplies from the Philippines to marines stationed on the Sierra Madre, which is stranded on the sunken reef.
The Philippines said the two countries had made “significant progress” in easing tensions but “significant differences” remained, and stressed it would be “relentless” in protecting its maritime interests.
The talks came two weeks after China used unprecedented violence to thwart a Philippine resupply mission on June 17, ramming and boarding a Philippine ship and threatening Filipino sailors with knives and axes. The Philippine ambassador to the United States has warned that the dispute could spark a wider conflict.
Second Thomas Shoal is within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. China claims it but an international tribunal rejected its claim in 2016. Manila ran its ship aground on the sunken reef in 1999 to bolster its own claims to the area.
The United States has underscored the tensions and repeatedly warned China that its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines also applies to the Sierra Madre mountain range.
“The situation is serious,” one U.S. official said. “But the relatively positive numbers are [from Manila about the talks] This shows that both sides are trying to find some common ground to ease tensions and ensure the Philippines can be supplied indefinitely.”
“It’s a good first step, but I don’t think anyone should consider the job done,” the official added.
The Biden administration is closely monitoring the situation, but Manila may have to attempt another resupply mission soon, especially since the Marines on the ship have not received any supplies in more than three weeks.
Some South China Sea experts worry that China may be emboldened by its success on June 17. Gregory Poling of the CSIS think tank said the incident could lead to further tensions and “potential violence.”
“The fact that China has used violence against Philippine troops with impunity will likely encourage China to use similar tactics again,” Poling said, “and reinforce Beijing’s mistaken belief that the Philippines will eventually cave in to pressure.”
The talks were between Philippine and Chinese diplomats. A Philippine official said that, unlike previous meetings, they did not include members of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s National Security Council. “It may have been a deliberate attempt to exclude security sector agencies from participating in an effort to ease tensions,” the official said.
China did not immediately release any information about the meeting, the first since the two sides met in Shanghai in January. The so-called bilateral consultation mechanism usually meets annually.
