On June 1, West Bengal will face its final election campaign as the final phase of the Indian Lok Sabha elections concludes. Mamata Banerjee, leader of the TMC and chief minister of the state, sparked frenzied speculation on May 15 when reports emerged that she would staunchly support the Indian National Alliance (INDIA) to form a government, but would do so from outside. She also said that support would not extend to the Bengal National Congress and the Communist Party of India (Marxist), which are allies with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
This seems to be a reiteration of the position taken time and time again, especially soon after the decision was made to go it alone in Bengal. There is no point in assigning blame for the breakdown in seat-sharing negotiations between the TMC and the BJP. Suffice it to say that the highly hostile relationship between Ms Banerjee and West Bengal Congress Committee (WBPCC) chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury doomed any meaningful agreement from the get-go.
Banerjee clarified the next day that she did not mean that she was not part of India. India is a country she has created, she said. After the elections, India will form a government and the TMC will be a part of it. In fact, she said in a very polemic tone that the TMC is the Indian bloc in Bengal and the Congress and the Left are not, having come to their own understanding, on the sidelines so to speak. Banerjee had just fired a new salvo at her arch-hate opponent.
Chowdhury hit back and said he might join hands with the BJP after the elections. But the fallout has plagued the BJP. And the blame lies entirely on the shoulders of the party’s top brass. On May 18, BJP leader Mallikarjun Kharge said Chowdhury had to choose between toeing the party line on the Indian Union or quitting. Kharge said the TMC was part of the Indian Union and it was not Chowdhury but the top brass who would decide who would join the coalition. Chowdhury hit back and said he would not be close to anyone who would “destroy” the party in the state. He repeatedly accused the TMC and the BJP of conspiring to polarise the Bengal elections. At the same time, he reminded Kharge that he was a member of the BJP’s committee and working committee and also a top brass. The intra-party feud escalated the next day. Despite attempts to resolve the issue, Chowdhury remained remorseful. Since then, the party leadership has been speaking in two voices. Kharge himself was conciliatory and called Chowdhury a “militant soldier”, but general secretary (organisation) KC Venugopal was not impressed and threatened disciplinary action.
The incident once again highlighted the Congress top brass’s indecisiveness in resolving the dispute, especially when it comes to negotiating with local party leaders, though Choudhury certainly does not fit the bill. If the top brass wanted to secure a seat deal in Bengal to fully cater to the TMC, they clearly should have removed Choudhury from his post as WBPCC president. They could have entrusted the negotiations to someone like Pradip Bhattacharya, the party’s like-minded candidate in Kolkata Uttar Pradesh, who has a good relationship with Banerjee.
The failure to reach an agreement is likely to deal a blow to the two parties in Malda district, as well as the TMC in Raiganj (Uttar Dinajpur) and Balughat (Dakshin Dinajpur). But overall, it is the TMC that has the upper hand in Bengal. Clearly, Ms Banerjee is more interested in halting the BJP’s momentum than wasting much time on Mr Chowdhury and the Left leaders.
In the TMC-BJP contest, the TMC seems to have several advantages. The BJP seems to be relying too much on star campaigners from outside the state. State BJP leaders have a low profile outside their own constituencies. Those who contest elections are tied to their own constituencies. Only Leader of Opposition in the state Assembly, Suvendu Adhikari, was seen campaigning across the state.
The tactic failed in the 2021 elections, in part because central leaders found it difficult to connect with voters in Bengal, with the language barrier being the most obvious disconnect, and in part because it emboldened the TMC’s accusation that the BJP is the party of outsiders.
During a roadshow in Kolkata on May 28, Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought to address the issue of disconnection by stopping off at three culturally significant destinations, the most important being the home of Swami Vivekananda. He targeted the TMC’s “attacks” on the Ramakrishna Mission, Bharat Sevashram Sangha and ISKCON.
But the BJP’s nomination process has been slow. Moreover, the choice of candidates seems inexplicable in some cases, especially when winning candidates are replaced. Shifting Dilip Ghosh from Medinipur to Bardhaman Durgapur and SS Ahluwalia from there to Asansol does not seem like a plan at all. Replacing Ghosh with Asansol South MLA Agnimitra Paul is even more incomprehensible. Fielding weak candidates in Diamond Harbour (against TMC’s de facto number two Abhishek Banerjee) and TMC stronghold Jadavpur is not a good look.
Still, Kharge will be aware of something Choudhury will not concede. The Bengal elections have been largely polarised, with two relatively evenly matched candidates in a fierce contest. With many constituencies seeing close margins, the outcome of the fierce battle will depend on Sandeshkari and the fate of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019, which is most crucial in North Bengal, Nadia and North 24 Palganj.
As things stand, both sides may be able to compromise and keep things as they are.
Suhit K Sen is a Kolkata-based writer and political commentator. The views expressed here are personal.
