The National Hurricane Center predicts Beryl will make landfall along the South or Central Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane, warning that the area is “at an elevated risk of hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.”
Additionally, very heavy rainfall totaling at least 5-10 inches is expected inland, bringing the risk of flooding. The system also appears to be prone to spawning a few fast-moving tropical tornadoes, which could impact the Houston metropolitan area even if landfall occurs much further west.
A hurricane watch covers the Texas coast from southwest Galveston Bay to the Texas-Mexico border and south of Barra el Mezquital in northeastern Mexico. A storm surge watch also covers the Texas coastline, stretching from northeast of Houston Galveston to High Island. Expected storm surge, or the rise of seawater above dry land that is usually near the shore, could reach up to 3 to 5 feet.
The hurricane center also issued a tropical storm warning for an area from the Texas coast south of Baffin Bay south of Corpus Christi to the Mexican border, where storm conditions are expected to begin first, and said the warning could be expanded later Saturday.
Where is Beryl now and how strong is she?
Beryl was a tropical storm with winds of 60 mph as of Saturday morning and had lost some strength and organization after passing across the Yucatan Peninsula after making landfall as a Category 2 on Friday.
As of approximately 1:30 pm ET, the center of the storm was located about 390 miles southeast of Corpus Christi and was moving west-northwest at 12 mph.
Satellite imagery from early Saturday morning showed Beryl looking quite disturbed, with the low and mid-level centers misaligned, meaning the system is tilted and a bit off balance. The system won’t strengthen significantly until it realigns. Forecasters expect the system to spend most of Saturday realigning. The Hurricane Center wrote that “significant strengthening” is expected by Sunday morning.
When will impacts to coastal Texas start?
Rain and tropical storm-force winds could arrive in South Texas near Brownsville Sunday morning, then move north to Corpus Christi in the early to mid-afternoon and Houston in the evening. However, most areas will not see heavy rain and wind gusts until Sunday evening, and conditions will likely worsen as the storm approaches early Monday. Preparedness for those at risk should be completed by late Saturday.
However, rip currents are already starting to affect people, so it is important to follow signs and flags on beaches and only swim where lifeguards are present.
The storm surge will likely begin midday on Sunday and will increase in size as the tide rises, causing more splashing and flooding through Monday. The most severe storm surge will occur east of where the center makes landfall, because that is where onshore winds will push water toward the coastline.
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), who is officiating while Gov. Greg Abbott (R) is on a trade mission in Asia, issued preemptive disaster declarations for dozens of counties to provide aid.
How strong will the hurricane be?
Beryl can’t strengthen until it regains strength, and it will spend most of Saturday regaining strength, meaning the storm won’t strengthen until Sunday.
Still, meteorologists expect the storm to strengthen by the time it makes landfall Sunday night or Monday. In fact, the best conditions for the storm to strengthen may come just before landfall, when diffusion — the spreading of air aloft — enhances upward motion, helping warm, moist air rise into the storm.
Beryl will likely become a Category 1 storm as it moves over land, but it could strengthen or weaken slightly.
Which areas are likely to be hit hardest?
This is subject to change, but the city Most at risk Corpus Christi, especially the north side, is likely to be the area most seriously affected by the hurricane. On average, computer model simulations show the storm making landfall between Corpus Christi and Matagorda. Landfall could be near Rockport, where Hurricane Harvey made landfall in 2017. But Houston is still not safe, and neither is Brownsville.
Because dry air is wrapped around the backside of the storm, the left edge of the storm, i.e. the western edge, very There are sharp boundaries, so impacts can vary widely even within just a few miles of the center: one county may be drenched in rain while the next one may only get an inch.
The heaviest rains will likely occur north and east of where the storm’s center makes landfall, with flooding from the heavy rains “locally significant,” the hurricane center said, with peak rainfall amounts reaching 15 inches.
Tornadoes are most likely located east of the center of the storm’s “feeder bands.”
The chance for tornadoes and heavy rain could continue into mid-week as remnants of Beryl move inland into southeastern Oklahoma and Arkansas, and potentially further east and north later in the week.
What is the biggest unknown about this storm?
Meteorologists aren’t yet sure where Beryl will make landfall — likely somewhere between South Padre Island and Galveston — and they’re also not sure how quickly it will recover, and therefore when its strengthening phase will begin.
It’s a race against time before landfall, so every hour that passes will affect the storm’s final peak strength.
Beryl became the first hurricane of the 2024 season and the fastest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic on Monday night. Fueled by record-warm waters, the storm surprised meteorologists by breaking standards for strength and the speed at which it intensified so early in the season.
The storm battered Grenada, St. Vincent and other Caribbean islands on Monday, leaving widespread damage. At least five people were killed in the hurricane, particularly on the Grenadian islands of Carriacou and Petite Martinique, while three more deaths were reported in Venezuela.
Alison Caton, 50, owner of Paradise Beach Club, a restaurant and bar on Paradise Beach, said the hurricane had caused “devastation everywhere” on Carriacou island, home to about 7,000 people, many of whom are now living in makeshift shelters inside a school.
The storm grazed Jamaica’s southern coast on Wednesday, bringing flooding rains and wind gusts of more than 80 mph, destroying homes and downing trees and power lines. At least two deaths were reported, and about 65 percent of Jamaica Public Service Corporation customers, or about 400,000 homes, were without power as of Thursday, the BBC reported.
The storm brought strong winds and heavy rain to the Cayman Islands on Wednesday night before hurtling toward the Yucatan Peninsula.
Beryl struck the Yucatan Peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane, downing trees and power lines and causing widespread power outages, but no casualties were reported.
Jason Samenow, Amanda Coletta, Kim Bellware and Samantha Schmidt contributed to this report.
