Image source, Getty Images
The investigation into a £100 “bet” on the general election by Rishi Sunak’s parliamentary aide Craig Williams has put the spotlight on the world of political gambling.
Betting on sporting events is now huge business in Britain, with millions of dollars being wagered on the Euros and the Paris Olympics this summer, most of which is done online rather than via the traditional bookmaker route.
But gambling has also long been part of the political world.
To an outsider, betting on an obscure by-election or leadership contest may seem odd, but for some political enthusiasts it combines the unpredictability and excitement of a sport with the intrigue of a dramatic story.
“I predicted the Liberal Democrats would win 20 to 1 and I was right,” he said.
“I love politics and there’s nothing I enjoy more than predicting winners and losers,” said Smithson, a long-time BBC political correspondent who now runs the website politicalbetting.com.
“People love to look at things and think they know the answers. You go down to the pub for a drink and people are always saying, ‘I think things will be this, I think things will be that’.”
Political betting is often used as an entry point for betting companies to draw new bettors into more profitable betting platforms.
“Most bookmakers get into political betting because they want to attract new customers who are drawn to other areas,” Smithson said.
But astonishing amounts of money have been wagered over the years.
In 2017, anonymous students bet £10,000 that Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour Party would win the general election. They lost the bet.
Mike Smithson predicts that “between £10 million and £20 million will be bet on this year’s election.”
Online betting exchange Betfair suggests that more than £8 million has been bet on the outcome of the general election – but this figure does not include bets made by major betting companies.
But William Kejani, head of political content at Star Sports, said political betting has “grown steadily over the past decade”.
“The fact that there was a particularly volatile event helped with betting – the Brexit referendum was a great one to bet on.”
“People want to vote in very close events.”
Over the years, the types of political bets have diversified.
While traditional bets on election outcomes remain popular, more novel bets such as predicting specific political events or decisions are also gaining popularity.
“The election itself is a perfect gamble. With 650 constituencies, there are many options for betting on each constituency and on the overall victory,” Kejani said.
Betting on politics has a surprisingly long history in the UK.
The 18th-century Whig prime minister, Charles James Fox, was known, according to his biographer, for betting “frequently, extensively, and deliberately on the social and political events of his time.”
Gambling laws became stricter during the Victorian and Edwardian eras, which also affected political betting.
However, in 1963 Ladbrokes began openly accepting bets on political events, and by the following year’s general election William Hill had joined in.
But those working in Westminster, like those at racecourses and football clubs, need to be careful.
Using confidential information to gain an advantage amounts to cheating under gambling laws and can be a criminal offence.
The Gambling Commission is investigating Craig Williams, the Conservative election candidate and former aide to Chancellor Rishi Sunak, over allegations that he placed a £100 bet on election day, just days before the Prime Minister announced the election.
Williams apologised and said he made a “significant error of judgement” but did not acknowledge the details of the bet.
Mr Sunak has described his behaviour as “deeply disappointing” and opposition parties are calling for him to be suspended from standing as a candidate or for a Cabinet Office investigation to be carried out.
The watchdog is understood to have written to all licensed bookmakers this week requesting information about anyone who stands to win more than £199 by betting on Britain’s July elections.
Gamblers in Westminster will be watching the outcome of this match with particular interest.
