Alden Bentley
NEW YORK (Reuters) – Alden Bentley’s outlook for Asia
Markets were weak ahead of second-quarter earnings reports from Alphabet and Tesla after the close of regular trading on Tuesday. The first of the market’s large, leading companies to report results led to mixed after-hours trading on Wednesday, with ripple effects that could spill over into the day.
Shares in both companies fell despite reporting better-than-expected earnings.
On the economic data front, there’s not much to watch beyond earnings until the release of preliminary second-quarter U.S. GDP data on Thursday and the June personal consumption expenditures price index on Friday, which markets expect will flatten the Fed’s path to monetary easing in September.
That leaves politics. Markets are bracing for bigger swings as the US election landscape shifts, but there was little sign of that on Tuesday. After President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris has all but secured the Democratic presidential nomination to face Republican Donald Trump on November 5.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries have endorsed Harris’ candidacy, and a majority of the party’s delegates have pledged to support her.
A Reuters/Ipsos national poll conducted on Monday and Tuesday showed Harris leading Trump 44% to 42%, within the margin of error of three percentage points. A July 15-16 poll showed Harris and Trump tied at 44%, while a July 1-2 poll had Trump leading by one percentage point, both within the same margin of error.
The CBOE VIX volatility index fell to nearly 14.5 on Tuesday, having risen above 17 two days ago, its highest level in nearly two months, as caution grew ahead of the vote in what is already one of the most dramatic election years on record.
Whoever is elected is sure to take a tough stance against China on trade and the Taiwan issue. Chinese stocks suffered their biggest one-day drop in six months on Tuesday as Beijing’s aggressive stimulus measures following the Party Central Committee plenary session failed to restore confidence, but it was unclear what the bottom would be.
Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei stock average is at just 225 cents per dollar after a five-day losing streak, hurt by the weak yen. The Nikkei rose to 155.615 cents per dollar on November 15th (US time) after senior members of the ruling party called on the Bank of Japan to normalize monetary policy and keep interest rates unchanged.
Taiwan’s stock market has weathered those losses and been Asia’s best-performing this year, thanks largely to Asia’s largest listed company, TSMC, which rose more than 4% on Tuesday. But concerns remain over the possibility that the U.S. might restrict chip sales to China.
Four of the remaining Magnificent Seven companies — Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and Apple — report earnings next week, and investors will have to wait until late August for AI supermajor Nvidia to report its results.
Key trends that could give further direction to the market on Wednesday include:
– South Korea Consumer Confidence (July)
– Australia Flash PMI (July)
– Flash PMI Japan (July)
