Brazil floods: predicted to get worse in the south

EL DORado do SUL, Brazil (AP) – More rain began to fall Saturday in Brazil’s already flooded Rio Grande do Sul state. Many of those who remain are poor people with limited ability to move to less dangerous areas.

A preliminary report from Brazil’s National Meteorological Institute on Friday afternoon said more than 15 centimeters of rain could fall over the weekend, potentially worsening flooding. Winds are also increasing and water levels are likely to rise in Patos Lagoon, which is adjacent to the state capital Porto Alegre, and surrounding areas.

As of Saturday afternoon, heavy rain had fallen in the northern and central regions of the state, causing water levels to rise.

Carlos Sampaio, 62, lives in a low-income community next to the Gremio soccer club’s stadium in Porto Alegre. His two-story home doubles as a sports bar.

Despite the ground floor being flooded, he said he would not leave, partly out of fear of looters in the crime-ridden area, where police patrol the flooded streets with assault rifles. But Sampaio also has nowhere else to go, he told The Associated Press.

“I’m just analyzing how safe I am, but I know that my belongings are not safe at all,” Sampaio said. “As long as I can fight for what’s mine and not expose myself, I’ll fight.”

Local authorities said Friday that at least 136 people have died in the floods since they began last week, and another 125 are missing. More than 400,000 people have been forced from their homes by the heavy rains, with 70,000 of them taking shelter in gymnasiums, schools and other temporary locations.

“I came here on Monday. I lost my apartment to the floods,” Uber driver Mateusz Vicari, 32, said inside the shelter where he was staying with his young son. “I haven’t spent too much time here. I try to go outside to think about other things.”

Some Rio Grande do Sul residents are finding solace in their vacation homes, including Alexandra Zanella, who co-owns a content agency in Porto Alegre.

Zanella and her partner volunteered when the floods began, but after repeated power outages and water outages, they decided to move. She headed to the seaside city of Capao da Canoa, which has so far been unaffected by the flooding. My partner’s family owns a vacation home there.

“We got here safely in the car with my sister-in-law, our two cats, my mom and her friend. We left the chaos of Porto Alegre” 42 Zanella, 20, told The Associated Press by phone. She said: “It is clear that those who have the privilege of leaving are in a safer position, and those living in the poorer areas of Porto Alegre have no choice.”

Weather across South America is influenced by the El Niño climate phenomenon, a natural phenomenon that periodically warms the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In Brazil, El Niño has historically caused drought in the north and heavy rains in the south, and this year’s effects are particularly severe.

Scientists say extreme weather events are occurring more frequently due to climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels, which emit greenhouse gases that cause global warming, and the world needs to curb global warming. There is overwhelming agreement that we need to significantly reduce the burning of coal, oil and gas. .

But social policy responses are also needed, said Nathalie Unterstell, director of the Talanoa Institute, a Rio de Janeiro-based climate policy think tank.

“To effectively respond to climate change in Brazil, we need to fight inequality,” Unterstel said.

In Brazil, the poor often live in homes built with less durable materials such as wood, and in unregulated areas that are vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as low-lying areas and steep hillsides.

“The worst is far from over,” Rio Grande do Sul Governor Eduardo Leite said on social media on Friday. The previous day, he estimated that 19 billion reais ($3.7 billion) would be needed to rebuild the state.

Sergio Vale, chief economist at MB Associates, wrote in a note Friday that the scale of the damage may be most comparable to Hurricane Katrina, which hit New Orleans in 2005.

According to the National Institute of Statistics, Rio Grande do Sul has the sixth highest per capita gross domestic product among Brazil’s 26 states and federal districts. Many of the state’s residents are descendants of Italian and German immigrants.

“In the public imagination, people in Rio Grande do Sul are white and wealthy, but this is not the reality,” said Marilia Cross, a researcher at the climate think tank CIPO Platform. “It’s very important to dispel this fiction, because it’s created for the political purpose of erasing black and poor populations,” she said.

In Canoas, one of the worst-hit cities in the state, Paulo Cesar Wolf’s small wooden house was completely submerged under water, along with all his belongings. The truck driver, a black man, currently lives in the back of a rented truck with six of his neighbors, where they all cook, eat, and sleep.

Wolf, 54, is considering leaving the countryside where she has lived since she was a child, but she has nowhere else to go and doesn’t want to leave her four adult children behind.

“It’s too late for someone like me to move somewhere else,” said Wolf, standing on the highway wearing a donated sweatshirt.

The Meteorological Institute predicts that the chance of rain will decrease from Monday with the arrival of a cold, dry air mass. But it also means temperatures will plummet, reaching near freezing by Wednesday. Therefore, hypothermia is a concern for those who are wet and lack electricity.

Celebrities, including supermodel Gisele Bündchen from Rio Grande do Sul, are sharing links and information on where and how to donate to help flood victims. Churches, businesses, schools and the public across the country are coming together to provide support.

The United Nations refugee agency is distributing blankets and mattresses. It is sending additional items from stockpiles in northern Brazil and other parts of the region, including emergency shelters, kitchen sets, blankets, solar lamps and hygiene kits.

On Thursday, Brazil’s federal government announced a 50.9 billion reais ($10 billion) support package for employees, beneficiaries of social programs, state and local governments, businesses and rural producers in Rio Grande do Sul state. .

On the same day, the Brazilian Air Force parachuted more than two tons of food and water into areas that were inaccessible due to blocked roads. The Navy has dispatched three ships to help the victims, including the Atlantic Multipurpose Aircraft Ship, considered the largest warship in Latin America. It arrived at the state’s coast on Saturday.

White House National Security Press Secretary John Kirby said Friday that the United States is sending $20,000 in personal hygiene kits and cleaning supplies and will provide an additional $100,000 in humanitarian assistance through existing regional programs. He said there is.

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Eleonore Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro.

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