Celtics vs Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals Preview, Odds, Predictions

Celtics vs Mavericks 2024 NBA Finals preview, odds and predictions originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston.

The 2024 NBA Finals matchup has been decided: the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks will face off for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

The Celtics went 12-2 in the Eastern Conference playoffs, including a sweep of the Indiana Pacers in the conference finals, en route to their second Finals appearance in three years. The Mavericks defeated three 50-win teams in the Western Conference playoffs to return to the Finals for the first time since 2011. Dallas defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in the conference finals.

The series isn’t lacking in compelling storylines. The star power is immense. Celtics forward Jayson Tatum and Mavs guard Luka Doncic are two of the top five players in basketball and were both recently named to the All-NBA First Team. Boston guard Jaylen Brown is an All-NBA caliber player who played the best basketball of his career and was named MVP of the Eastern Conference Finals.

Celtics big man Al Horford is looking to win his first championship ring in 17 years, while Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd is looking to become the 13th man to win titles as both a player and a head coach and the sixth man to do so with the same team.

Celtics center Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t played since Game 4 of the first round because of a calf injury. It would be a big boost for the Celtics if he were to return to the lineup for the Finals. If Porzingis plays, he’ll be more than motivated to beat his former team.

And of course, Kyrie Irving’s return to Boston will be a big talking point heading into the series. Irving is an elite scorer with championship experience. He also played for the Celtics for two seasons, 2017-18 and 2018-19. He left the team as a free agent in 2019, despite telling fans at the 2017-18 preseason event that he planned to re-sign. Irving also stomped on the Celtics’ iconic logo at center court as a player for the Brooklyn Nets in the 2021 playoffs. It’s been five years since Irving left Boston, but he’s still likely to be the No. 1 villain for Celtics fans in this series.

Will the Celtics pass the Lakers for a league-record 18th championship, or will the Mavericks pull off another upset and win their franchise’s second championship in 14 seasons?

Here’s our full preview of the Celtics vs Mavericks matchup.

Series Schedule

The NBA Finals begin on Thursday, June 6 at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics have home-court advantage, something they didn’t have in their last two Finals appearances in 2010 and 2022.

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Regular season matchups

January 22nd Dallas: Celtics 119-110

March 1st Boston: Celtics 138-110

The story of the tape

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The Celtics will win this series…

They continue to excel when it matters.

Performing in key moments has been an issue for the Celtics at times during the regular season and past playoffs, but that hasn’t been the case so far in the 2024 playoffs. In fact, the Celtics have been the best key moment team in the league through three rounds.

Boston played well in key moments in the Eastern Conference Finals, as the Celtics were incredibly good in key moments, winning three of their four-game series against the Pacers.

Whether it was making key shots (like Jaylen Brown’s three-pointer that sent the game into overtime in Game 1) or playing great defense (like Jrue Holiday’s big steal late in Game 3), the Celtics were dominant in the closing stages of games in the Conference Finals. Holiday played a huge role in Boston’s success at key times on both ends of the court, and his championship experience will be invaluable to this team.

Can the Celtics come out on top on the biggest stage in sports? That will be a big factor in deciding the outcome of the series. The Mavericks have two of the best closers in the league in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, both of whom are capable of taking complete control when games decide the outcome.

The Mavericks will win this series…

Supporting characters also appear.

Doncic and Irving will be hard to stop. They are two of the best offensive players of their generation. They averaged a combined 59.4 points per game in the Western Conference Finals. Both of those guys will be productive.

But who else on the Mavericks is a consistent offensive threat? Doncic and Irving are the only two Mavericks players averaging at least 14 points per game in the playoffs.

PJ Washington is the X-factor. He has had an inconsistent 3-point shooting performance in the playoffs. He shot 31.3% from 3-point range in the first round, then jumped to 46.9% in the conference semifinals before dropping to 25% in the conference finals. Which Washington will Dallas face in the Finals?

Derrick Jones Jr. scored 22 points in Game 6 of the Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round. He has scored a total of 37 points in five games against the Timberwolves. Maxi Kleber returned to the lineup for Game 4 of the Conference Finals after missing the previous nine games. He is a strong three-point shooter.

Daniel Gafford and rookie center Derek Lively are also capable of scoring 10 or more points on any given night.

The Mavericks will need one or more of those players to provide consistent secondary scoring power to match the offensive prowess of the Celtics, who are the playoffs’ highest-scoring team at 111.4 points per game.

Odds

Sportsbooks are projecting the Celtics as the favorites to win the series.

prediction

The Celtics won six games.

The Celtics have the best starting five in basketball, an elite offensive line and an elite defensive line, and while Boston can beat Dallas without Porzingis, the Celtics’ scoring and interior defense would be even stronger with their star center back.

Not only do the Celtics have home court advantage, they’ve also been dominant on the road, bringing an eight-game playoff road winning streak into Game 1 of the Finals. Boston’s big improvement in key situations is another reason to be optimistic about their chances in this series.

The final four wins are always the toughest and as the favorites, the Celtics will be under a lot of pressure to get the job done, especially since they have been the best team all season and will finally silence their critics by winning their 18th championship in a few weeks.