A closer look at the election results reveals some common trends. Firstly, out of the 15 Lok Sabha elections held in the Union Territory (UT), the Congress Party and the BJP (formerly the Jana Sangh) have won 8 and 5 respectively. Candidates from the Janata Party (of which the Jana Sangh is a member) and the Janata Dal won in the 1980 and 1989 elections. All the winning and runner-up candidates were from national parties. The only state party to win was the 1977 Lok Sabha election in alliance with the Janata Party. The preference for national parties is due to the fact that Chandigarh attracts people from all over India. Also, the city has a predominantly white-collar, upper-caste, middle-class citizenry, who surveys have shown a consistent preference for national parties.
Second, in Chandigarh, a modern city during the Nehru era, elections have never been openly contested over divisive issues such as caste, religion or region. Even colonial and slum politics have been largely uninfluenced by caste and communal politics. Third, even though Chandigarh has been the capital of Punjab and Haryana since 1966, contentious regional issues and party politics associated with both states have had little noticeable impact on Chandigarh politics. Also, despite most of the state-level politicians residing in the city, only “national” and local leaders campaign, not leaders from both states.
Fourth, in addition to the issue of national campaigns, regional issues related to the sector; Electoral results in the colonies and slums of Chandigarh will determine the voters’ choice. Local issues and candidates play a key role. This may be due to the absence of a Legislative Assembly in Chandigarh like Puducherry, a long-standing local demand. Fifth, election results show that parties whose candidates have won in the Congress in the past have gone on to form governments alone or in coalitions at the federal level. The exceptions so far have been the 1967, 1999 and 2024 elections.
The tendency to vote for parties expected to form the central government is primarily due to the “satellite” nature of Chandigarh’s politics and economy. Middle-class voters tend to make the rational choice to side with parties that have the potential to win at the centre for the city’s prosperity. Sixth, the candidates fielded by political parties invariably have a connection to Chandigarh – they are either residents, have studied in an educational institution in the city, or have spent the early part of their professional lives here. Even those who lived in the city but have since moved away to pursue their professional careers carry the burden of being labelled as outsiders.
2024 Election
An analysis of the verdict for the 2024 elections confirms all the above trends. This time too, like in the past, the main contest was between the candidates of the Indian National Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BSP also fielded its own candidate. The AAP, which performed impressively in the last two elections, supported the Indian National Congress this time. The two main candidates had city links, both had homes, school and college education here and were active in student politics due to their political backgrounds. Tewari had moved to Delhi to be a Supreme Court lawyer and was therefore called an outsider by the opposition, even though he repeatedly reminded everyone that he was the only (winning) Delhi-born candidate since 1967. This was one of the factors that worked against him when he wanted the party nomination in the last two elections. Despite Tandon being a city-bred politician, his last two attempts to get the party nomination were also thwarted by factional politics.
As in previous years, the BJP tried to drum up support among the people, as in other parts of the country, on domestic issues such as anti-corruption, dynastic party, national security, India being the fifth largest economy, abrogation of Article 370, Ram temple, Vikshit Bharat and the “Modi Guarantee” scheme for people living in townships and slums. Tandon also appealed for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and asked for votes, although Modi did not address the rally. Tandon also questioned Tewari’s frequent shifting of constituencies and questioned his stay in the city after his victory.
Tewari, a former spokesman for the Indian National Congress and a much more articulate and skilled orator, focused on local as well as national issues. Like Rahul Gandhi, he held up a copy of the Indian Constitution at election rallies and expressed concern about the future of democracy and the need to ensure the health of its institutions. In this context, Tewari repeatedly raised allegations of vote rigging in the recent mayoral elections. He also highlighted his experience as a two-time MP and Union Minister, contrasting it with Tandon’s lack of administrative and legislative experience.
The Congress candidate pulled off an upset. There was a clear perception, fuelled by the media and the BJP itself, that the party would win the assembly elections with a landslide majority. As has been the case in the past, the middle class in each sector was expected to vote for the winning party. However, this did not happen. Tewari garnered significant votes from all sectors, including the upper sector to which he belongs, and actually led in many middle and lower middle class sectors. In colonies and villages, Tewari was always expected to have an advantage due to rising prices, lack of employment opportunities and antipathy towards the BJP amongst the farmers of Punjab. This would spill over to the urban villages of Chandigarh, which suffer from lack of basic public amenities. Here too, the alliance with AAP helped. In past elections, such as the one in 2014 in which the party candidate Gul Panag contested, the party, which was also urban-based, had performed extremely well. Also, in the local body elections to be held in 2022, AAP emerged as the largest party.
With deep-rooted factional politics rife in the Chandigarh division, both the BJP and the Indian National Congress leaders have received little support from leaders of the other factions. The most important factor behind Tandon’s defeat is the poor performance of his party’s former MPs. It is true that voters were very unhappy with the overall decline, including slow development of the IT sector, withdrawal of the corporate sector, slow recovery of tourism, traffic congestion, dilapidated public facilities, and bureaucratic laxity in implementing the smart city plan. Tandon’s identification with the ruling party came at a price. However, it is to his credit that he lost by a narrow margin. As an elected representative, Tewari will find it difficult to fulfil his election promises with a BJP-led NDA government at the centre and the government appointing the chief administrative officer in Chandigarh.
(The author is Professor of Indian Politics at Punjab University, Chandigarh. Views are personal)
