China and India remain highly dependent on coal, and climate change targets remain difficult

China and India are not cutting back on coal generation for electricity, making it difficult for Asia’s biggest carbon emitters to meet climate change targets, according to a new study.

Although both Asian countries have ambitious plans to reduce emissions, they remain highly dependent on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, and remains the most reliable and affordable way to meet growing electricity demand.

Global coal-fired electricity production has increased consistently over the past two decades, nearly doubling from 5,809 TWh in 2000 to 10,434 TWh in 2023, new research from energy think tank Ember shows. found. According to the study, the largest increases were in China (+319 TWh) and India (+100 TWh).

According to the IEA, coal remains the largest source of energy for electricity generation, providing more than a third of the world’s electricity. It will continue to play an important role in industries such as steel until new technology becomes available.

“It will be very difficult to reach the target without a rapid displacement of coal, certainly not possible,” said Frances Johnson, senior researcher and head of climate change at the Stockholm Institute for the Environment’s Asia Center. said.

“Coal is not being phased out fast enough,” he warned.

Asia’s largest economy has two major climate goals: peaking carbon emissions in 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality in 2060. Still, dependence on coal shows no signs of slowing down.

Electricity demand in East Asian countries has increased seven-fold since the beginning of the decade, and coal demand has increased more than five-fold over the same period, according to Ember’s research.

China, the world’s largest coal producer, emitted 5.491 billion tons of carbon dioxide from power generation in 2023. This is at least three times higher than the US (1,570 MtCO2) or India (1,470 MtCO2), study data showed.

However, the country has made impressive progress in renewable energy development, resulting in emissions growth slowing from an average of 9% per year from 2001 to 2015 to an average of 4.4% per year from 2016 to 2023. said the energy think tank.

“China is very close to peak emissions and the transition to clean energy is proceeding at an extraordinary rate,” Dave Jones, Global Insights Program Director at Ember, told CNBC. Told.

“Even with very high levels of electricity demand growth, the level of growth in renewable energy appears to be sufficient,” Jones said.

According to Ember’s report, clean electricity contributes to 35% of China’s total electricity generation. Hydropower, the second largest energy source, accounts for 13% of its composition, and combined wind and solar power reached a new high of 16% in 2023.

“Emissions would have been 20% higher in 2023 if wind and solar power had not increased since 2015 and demand had been met by coal instead,” the report highlights, adding that these two power sources He added that it can currently generate enough electricity to power Japan.

But Johnson, of the Stockholm Environmental Research Institute, warned that China still needs to reduce its dependence on other forms of fossil fuels.

“The phasing out of coal is absolutely necessary, but it is not sufficient on its own. Reducing coal emissions will not eliminate emissions in other sectors,” he said.

Last year, when India became the world’s most populous country, electricity demand increased by 5.4% compared to 2022. This was more than double her increase in the world.

The country’s leaders are optimistic about the path to net zero, boldly claiming that 50% of electricity generation will come from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.

Emissions from the power sector are expected to peak around 2030, and total energy-related emissions will reach their highest around 2034, the Climate Action Tracker predicts.

But further pressure from the drought has pushed the country to generate 78% of its electricity from fossil fuels, with coal accounting for 75% of that mix, according to Ember’s research.

Like China, India has also made great strides in other forms of renewable energy.

According to Ember, India will overtake Japan in 2023 to become the world’s third largest solar power producer.

India generated a total of 113 terawatt hours (TWh) of solar power last year, an increase of 145% from 2019, according to Ember. This is second only to China (584TWh) and the United States (238TWh).

“Regarding China and India’s path to carbon neutrality, you would expect emissions to increase as demand grows. But at some point, if they first peak and then need to decline. , we need to decouple emissions from GDP growth,” Aditya Lolla, Asia program director at Ember, told CNBC.