China on Thursday launched so-called “punitive” military exercises around Taiwan in response to “separatist acts” since the inauguration of Taiwan’s new leader, President Lai Ching-de.
The drill took place three days after Mr. Li, who the Chinese government describes as a “dangerous troublemaker,” was sworn in.
The exercises were conducted in the Taiwan Strait, the north, south and east of Taiwan, and in areas around the Taiwan-controlled islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, state media reported in a statement from the military. The drills were codenamed “Joint Sword − 2024A.”
Let’s take a fresh look at China’s hostility towards Taiwan, why Beijing is conducting the drills, and why it’s worrying.
What is the relationship between China and Taiwan?
Through successive administrations, China has long vowed to unify Taiwan, which it considers Chinese territory and which has been independently ruled since 1949 and is less than 150 miles from mainland China at its widest point. China considers Taiwan to be a separate and independent province, and President Xi Jinping has not wavered from this policy.
In recent years, Chinese fighter jets and warships have been patrolling near Taiwan and conducting mock military attacks, with the hope that Beijing will eventually use its rapidly modernizing military if necessary to accomplish this. This appears to have been Mr. Xi’s reminder of his readiness to do so. In fact, the Chinese military has conducted military-related activities near Taiwan almost every day for the past few years. The last time China held large-scale war games near Taiwan was in 2023 and 2022.
What was it about Lai Qingde’s speech that so angered Beijing?
According to the transcript, Lai said in his speech on Monday he called on China to “stop political and military intimidation against Taiwan” and instead focus on promoting peace in the region. He called on China to “choose dialogue over confrontation and engagement over containment, based on the principles of equality and dignity.”
Chinese officials were furious. Government spokesperson Chen Bin-hua said Lai’s speech showed him to be “a traitor to mainstream public opinion on the island and a destroyer of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Lai’s comments “an utter disgrace.” Their comments were posted on the website of China Central Television, the English-language state broadcaster.
How worried should Taiwan be about Chinese exercises?
Taiwanese authorities condemned China’s drills, calling them “irrational provocations.” “Beijing must understand that its coercive tactics will not win people’s hearts and will only increase tensions,” Liang Wenjie, a spokesman for the ministry that oversees China-related issues, said at a Thursday press conference. ” he said.
Political scientists and military analysts disagree over whether Beijing is prepared to unify Taiwan and mainland China by force, and how easy or difficult that would be. In direct confrontation, the Chinese military is far more powerful. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, China has more than 2 million active military personnel, compared to 169,000 in Taiwan. China spends a lot of time defending Taipei. The United States has provided arms to Taiwan and pledged to defend the island militarily in the event of attack from China.
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Dmitri Alperovitch, a U.S. national security expert, co-founder of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, and author of a new book on U.S.-China relations, “The World on the Brink,” and other books , the Chinese government claims to be in the midst of a crisis. He is preparing for war to occupy Taiwan, and Chinese leader Xi wants the war to happen on his watch.
“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin wanted to invade Ukraine. He’s in his 70s, Xi Jinping is in his 70s, and they’re both driven by ego,” Alperovitch said in a recent interview while promoting his book. “Not only do they want to occupy these countries — Ukraine in Putin’s case, Taiwan in China’s case — but they also want to do it themselves, because they want to take their place in the hall of history and be presented as the country’s great leader.”
Still, there were no signs of alarm Thursday in Taiwan, where the population is accustomed to Chinese military activity and exercises. Taiwan’s main stock index hit an all-time high, closing up 0.3%. According to a report by the BBC, the top Google trend of the day in Taiwan was about a Japanese actor who is rumored to have had an affair.
