A US think tank has warned that China could control Taiwan without a direct invasion by isolating it, crippling its economy and forcing it to bend to China’s will through “grey zone” tactics.
According to CNN, this strategy could cut off Taiwan’s access to vital sources of energy and other supplies and ports without China ever firing a shot. The report, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, stressed that China has options other than a full-scale invasion or military blockade to achieve its objectives.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan has raised concerns that the Communist Party will follow through on its promise to seize control of the island. China’s muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only fueled those fears. Analysts and military strategists typically see two main options open to China: full-scale invasion or blockade. But CSIS suggests that a third option, isolation, may be harder for the U.S. and other democracies to counter.
The CSIS report explains that China could use “gray zone tactics” to begin quarantining Taiwan using its coast guard, maritime militia and other agencies. This could include cutting off access to Taiwan’s ports and halting the shipment of critical supplies. “China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking concerns that tensions could escalate into all-out conflict. While much attention has been focused on the threat of invasion, Beijing has options beyond invasion, such as coercing, punishing or annexing Taiwan,” the report states.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue Defense Summit in Singapore, China’s Defense Minister Tung Jun issued a stern warning to those who support Taiwan independence. “We will take resolute action to thwart Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” Tung said through an interpreter. He criticized “external interference forces” that sell arms to Taiwan and maintain “illegal official contacts” with the island.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have escalated recently, with a China Coast Guard vessel clashing with a Philippine Navy vessel this week. Video shows Chinese troops threatening Filipinos with axes and other bladed weapons, and Manila said one soldier lost a thumb in the Chinese-instigated clash. The level of violence was significantly higher than in previous incidents near Second Thomas Shoal, claimed by both Beijing and Manila.
Under Xi Jinping, China’s military and economic threats against Taiwan have become more pronounced. The Chinese Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own and has vowed to “reunify” it, even by force if necessary. But the CSIS report notes that China has strong options to avoid directly involving the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Instead, these options could put Taiwan and its allies, such as the United States, in a position to engage in military conflict to defend Taiwan’s autonomy.
The China Coast Guard, like coast guards around the world, is considered a law enforcement agency. As such, it can restrict shipping around Taiwan with quarantine measures rather than blockades, which are considered acts of war under international law. “Quarantine measures are law enforcement-led activities to control maritime and air traffic within a specific area, while blockades are primarily military in nature,” the report details. This puts the US in a tricky position, since “quarantine measures led by the China Coast Guard are not a declaration of war against Taiwan.”
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with the means for its own defense, including defensive weapons. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he would use U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan, in what appears to be a departure from the U.S.’s previous policy of “strategic ambiguity.” However, the intervention of U.S. ships or aircraft in what China describes as law enforcement activities could be viewed as the United States initiating military hostilities.
China’s maritime capabilities far exceed those of Taiwan. The China Coast Guard has 150 ocean-going ships and 400 smaller vessels, making it as large as the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the world’s largest fleet. In contrast, Taiwan’s Coast Guard has only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller vessels, insufficient to effectively counter quarantine operations. Even limited search and seizure operations by Chinese authorities could discourage commercial vessels from servicing Taiwan, straining Taiwan’s economy, the report noted.
The impact on Taiwan’s air traffic would be similarly large. Banning even a few Chinese aircraft could have a widespread deterrent effect. China regularly flies military aircraft around Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that 36 Chinese military aircraft had crossed Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. Friday.
Unlike a blockade, quarantine measures do not close the Taiwan Strait or restrict access, allowing China to avoid claims that it is disrupting international navigation. “If quarantine measures are viewed as law enforcement activities, China can easily announce an end to the activities and claim that their objectives have been achieved,” the report said.
China may not even need to call its actions a “quarantine” to isolate Taiwan. Requiring customs declarations before ships dock in Taiwan and enforcing compliance could have a deterrent effect on shipping. “PRC law enforcement vessels would be authorized to board ships, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against non-compliant vessels,” the report states.
A focus on Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s busiest port, which handles 57 percent of the island’s seaborne imports and most of its energy imports, could further isolate the island.
But outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report pointed to several potential problems for China.
Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said maintaining the quarantine would be costly and time-consuming. “Taipei is not going to give up within 60 days,” he said. “Can Beijing sustain the effort, and the international response, for that long?” he asked.
Any efforts to change the status quo could also have a negative impact on China’s foreign trade, said Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, pointing to economic challenges the Chinese Communist Party already faces, including a struggling recovery from the coronavirus quarantine, slowing growth, and new trade restrictions.
Isolating Taiwan would have ramifications for the global economy given its key role in global supply chains, especially in semiconductor manufacturing. While most countries diplomatically recognize Beijing over Taiwan, Taiwan has increasingly forged informal ties with major Western democracies and is deepening these ties amid growing threats from Beijing.
“Historical evidence suggests that even tough lockdowns have limited coercive power and that limited quarantines can lead to rallying around the flag effect,” said Siddharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Institute for Security Studies in London.
Under pressure, Taiwan’s government could declare independence, and Beijing has consistently warned that this could lead to armed conflict. [Communist Party] “The choice is between escalation or a major retreat,” Kaushal warned.
For China, patience is essential to achieve its goal of “unification.” Escalation, let alone aggression, is “not cost-effective,” Patalano said, noting that war costs not only human lives but also national wealth.
According to CNN, this strategy could cut off Taiwan’s access to vital sources of energy and other supplies and ports without China ever firing a shot. The report, published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, stressed that China has options other than a full-scale invasion or military blockade to achieve its objectives.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s increasingly aggressive stance toward Taiwan has raised concerns that the Communist Party will follow through on its promise to seize control of the island. China’s muted response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only fueled those fears. Analysts and military strategists typically see two main options open to China: full-scale invasion or blockade. But CSIS suggests that a third option, isolation, may be harder for the U.S. and other democracies to counter.
The CSIS report explains that China could use “gray zone tactics” to begin quarantining Taiwan using its coast guard, maritime militia and other agencies. This could include cutting off access to Taiwan’s ports and halting the shipment of critical supplies. “China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking concerns that tensions could escalate into all-out conflict. While much attention has been focused on the threat of invasion, Beijing has options beyond invasion, such as coercing, punishing or annexing Taiwan,” the report states.
At the recent Shangri-La Dialogue Defense Summit in Singapore, China’s Defense Minister Tung Jun issued a stern warning to those who support Taiwan independence. “We will take resolute action to thwart Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” Tung said through an interpreter. He criticized “external interference forces” that sell arms to Taiwan and maintain “illegal official contacts” with the island.
Tensions between China and Taiwan have escalated recently, with a China Coast Guard vessel clashing with a Philippine Navy vessel this week. Video shows Chinese troops threatening Filipinos with axes and other bladed weapons, and Manila said one soldier lost a thumb in the Chinese-instigated clash. The level of violence was significantly higher than in previous incidents near Second Thomas Shoal, claimed by both Beijing and Manila.
Under Xi Jinping, China’s military and economic threats against Taiwan have become more pronounced. The Chinese Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own and has vowed to “reunify” it, even by force if necessary. But the CSIS report notes that China has strong options to avoid directly involving the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Instead, these options could put Taiwan and its allies, such as the United States, in a position to engage in military conflict to defend Taiwan’s autonomy.
The China Coast Guard, like coast guards around the world, is considered a law enforcement agency. As such, it can restrict shipping around Taiwan with quarantine measures rather than blockades, which are considered acts of war under international law. “Quarantine measures are law enforcement-led activities to control maritime and air traffic within a specific area, while blockades are primarily military in nature,” the report details. This puts the US in a tricky position, since “quarantine measures led by the China Coast Guard are not a declaration of war against Taiwan.”
Under the Taiwan Relations Act, the United States is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with the means for its own defense, including defensive weapons. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he would use U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan, in what appears to be a departure from the U.S.’s previous policy of “strategic ambiguity.” However, the intervention of U.S. ships or aircraft in what China describes as law enforcement activities could be viewed as the United States initiating military hostilities.
China’s maritime capabilities far exceed those of Taiwan. The China Coast Guard has 150 ocean-going ships and 400 smaller vessels, making it as large as the People’s Liberation Army Navy, the world’s largest fleet. In contrast, Taiwan’s Coast Guard has only 10 ocean-going ships and about 160 smaller vessels, insufficient to effectively counter quarantine operations. Even limited search and seizure operations by Chinese authorities could discourage commercial vessels from servicing Taiwan, straining Taiwan’s economy, the report noted.
The impact on Taiwan’s air traffic would be similarly large. Banning even a few Chinese aircraft could have a widespread deterrent effect. China regularly flies military aircraft around Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that 36 Chinese military aircraft had crossed Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. Friday.
Unlike a blockade, quarantine measures do not close the Taiwan Strait or restrict access, allowing China to avoid claims that it is disrupting international navigation. “If quarantine measures are viewed as law enforcement activities, China can easily announce an end to the activities and claim that their objectives have been achieved,” the report said.
China may not even need to call its actions a “quarantine” to isolate Taiwan. Requiring customs declarations before ships dock in Taiwan and enforcing compliance could have a deterrent effect on shipping. “PRC law enforcement vessels would be authorized to board ships, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against non-compliant vessels,” the report states.
A focus on Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s busiest port, which handles 57 percent of the island’s seaborne imports and most of its energy imports, could further isolate the island.
But outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report pointed to several potential problems for China.
Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said maintaining the quarantine would be costly and time-consuming. “Taipei is not going to give up within 60 days,” he said. “Can Beijing sustain the effort, and the international response, for that long?” he asked.
Any efforts to change the status quo could also have a negative impact on China’s foreign trade, said Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, pointing to economic challenges the Chinese Communist Party already faces, including a struggling recovery from the coronavirus quarantine, slowing growth, and new trade restrictions.
Isolating Taiwan would have ramifications for the global economy given its key role in global supply chains, especially in semiconductor manufacturing. While most countries diplomatically recognize Beijing over Taiwan, Taiwan has increasingly forged informal ties with major Western democracies and is deepening these ties amid growing threats from Beijing.
“Historical evidence suggests that even tough lockdowns have limited coercive power and that limited quarantines can lead to rallying around the flag effect,” said Siddharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Institute for Security Studies in London.
Under pressure, Taiwan’s government could declare independence, and Beijing has consistently warned that this could lead to armed conflict. [Communist Party] “The choice is between escalation or a major retreat,” Kaushal warned.
For China, patience is essential to achieve its goal of “unification.” Escalation, let alone aggression, is “not cost-effective,” Patalano said, noting that war costs not only human lives but also national wealth.
