If China does not want Iran to acquire nuclear weapons and has categorically stated that it will not do so, why does it not support greater pressure from Western countries, Israel and the International Atomic Energy Agency in response to Iran’s nuclear violations?
The Jerusalem Post spoke to sources on multiple sides of the issue to get a better understanding of Beijing’s position and actions.
China does not trust Iran too much.
There have been other times when Iran has insulted China and Beijing has punished Tehran, including when China supported global sanctions against Iran in the early 2010s.
More recently, this winter, China’s government under President Xi Jinping temporarily drastically cut oil imports from Iran in frustration at attempts by the government of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to raise prices.
Moreover, while the Communist Party of 2024 is more open to dialogue on the religious dimension, by instinct President Xi Jinping and other leaders are not supporters of fanatical religious movements like the theocratic clerics such as Ayatollah Khamenei who still rule Iran today.
But these are side issues in China’s broader calculations.
Overall, Beijing’s primary concerns are 1) to prevent Taiwanese independence and eventually annex/unify the region in some form, 2) to expand its diplomatic and power influence in the ongoing competition with the United States and take advantage of opportunities to reduce American influence, and 3) to expand its economic influence globally to further diversify and strengthen its business interests.
From Xi Jinping’s perspective, most of the conflicts between the West, the United States, Israel and Iran are opportunities to undermine Washington. The security interests of Jerusalem and the Jewish state are minor side issues in the bigger picture.
Keihei sided with Iran against the IAEA
What is surprising since 2021 is that Xi Jinping has sided with Iran even vis-à-vis the IAEA, the UN nuclear inspection body that is seen as going from neutral to even trying to downplay its conflict with Khamenei, compared to Israel, the US and France.
Each time the IAEA and its Board of Governors have condemned Iran’s long-standing violations and pressed it to return to full cooperation with nuclear inspectors, only China (and Russia) have voted against.
On June 5, 20 countries around the world voted to condemn Iran and warn of potential retaliation if it continues to violate its nuclear obligations. Some abstained to protect their business interests with Iran. But abstention alone was not enough for Xi.
From Beijing’s perspective, the IAEA’s neutrality and expertise are irrelevant when it comes to broader politics.
Russia is now aligned with Khamenei and Moscow not only over the war against Ukraine but also to counter the US and the West for influence.
Beyond influence, Iran is a major source of energy diversification for China, which has a long history of ties with Iran and its earlier Persian rulers.
These ties, and the desire to diminish American influence, are so strong that China did not condemn the Islamic Republic when it carried out 350 aerial attacks on the Jewish state in April.
This puts Xi at greater odds with Israel’s diplomatic stance than some European countries, which have criticized Israel over the situation of Palestinian civilians in the Gaza Strip but have also sharply criticized Iran for direct attacks on Israel.
Additionally, Michal Koudelka, head of the Czech Counterintelligence Service (BIS), has accused Chinese groups of spreading massive amounts of disinformation about the current Gaza war in favor of Hamas and against Israel.
China strongly denies the allegations and maintains that, unlike many countries around the world, including democracies, anti-Semitism does not exist in China due to certain cultural issues and law enforcement.
There is also hope that once the current war fades from the headlines, the Chinese-backed groups spreading pro-Hamas disinformation will cease to exist, as there is little to be gained from weakening the US in the region.
Chinese authorities are keen to highlight the long and positive history of relations between China and Jews, including as a place of refuge from Germany during World War II.
Moreover, China is keen to highlight that Beijing is Jerusalem’s second-largest trading partner, at $24 billion as of 2022 (and much larger in the EU as a whole).
During the current war, Israel’s trade with most countries, including China, has dropped significantly, but the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) still estimates China’s trade value at several billion dollars, and China’s Hainan Airlines is the only airline other than the domestic El Al that has flown to Israel throughout the war.
In addition, thousands of Chinese workers have remained in Israel throughout the war and continue to work on joint Israeli-Chinese infrastructure and other projects.
A recent INSS analysis raised the question of whether Israel should shift its policies to favor Taiwan over China, given Taiwan’s fervent support for the Jewish state during the current war, but ultimately concluded that this would be unwise.
Essentially, the INSS post concludes that China remains a global superpower and Israel should strive to get along with China in all areas where cooperation is possible, but should avoid antagonizing China if there is a way to avoid such a situation.
By comparison, Israel may have more in common with Taiwan in terms of democratic values, but the INSS post noted that foreign policy in a dangerous region like the Middle East must prioritize Israel’s specific security needs to maintain good relations with China over issues of values.
This seems even more difficult during the current Israel-Gaza war and with Iran further testing this line with its nuclear violations and the IAEA.
But if Israel’s choice is between a China that is close to Iran but still wants friendly relations and wants to do billion-dollar business with it, and a China that is close to Iran but is an active enemy of Jerusalem, it seems clear that a better relationship with China, the world’s second-largest superpower and potentially the number one superpower in the future, would be preferable for tiny Israel.
It is unclear how much Israel could take against China if the conflict between Washington and Beijing escalates further, and there is no doubt that the United States supports Israel much more than China does, even when there are major differences between the two countries.
But the fact that Israel has managed to maintain good relations in some areas so far amid the US-China trade war means that it is at least possible.
Unfortunately, none of this will help Israel solve its Iran problem, which is not a priority for Xi Jinping.
But Israel still has two main cards to play against the Islamic Republic: its own viable military threat and sanctions pressure from the West.
