China erases Taiwan Strait border with near-daily incursions

• Since 2020, the Chinese military has been influxing aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ on an almost daily basis.
• The area beyond the midline increased rapidly, virtually erasing the midline completely.
• Invasions and large-scale military exercises have exhausted Taiwan’s military.

Chinese warplanes are pressuring Taiwan, with near-daily incursions that have nearly erased key dividing lines and created a dangerous new normal.

Since 2020, Taiwan has issued regular, almost daily updates on intrusions into its air defense identification zone by Chinese military aircraft. It also documents China’s continued efforts to destroy the median line in the Taiwan Strait established in 1955.

Researcher Thomas J. Shattuck, a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Fellowship, and Benjamin Lewis, co-founder of the PLATracker organization, are tracking China’s increasingly bold actions. A review of data from Taiwan reveals that the past four years of ADIZ incursions have led to growing rejection of the informal demarcation line established to avoid conflict.

China’s military incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ and crossing the median line across the Taiwan Strait are rapidly increasing, with the number of incursions into the ADIZ increasing from an average of 2.56 aircraft per day four years ago to 11.63 aircraft per day now.

Although the country’s ADIZ extends far beyond its airspace, the area is closely monitored for national security purposes. When Chinese aircraft enter Taiwan’s de facto ADIZ, counter air patrol aircraft (CAPs) are dispatched.

In 2021, the Chinese military flew 972 aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ, and the number almost doubled in 2022. In 2023, 1,703 aircraft were recorded. And 2024 is expected to be a record-breaking number, with more than 2,000 aircraft recorded as of September. Also, they are no longer limited to a corner of ADIZ.

Crossing the median line has become increasingly common since then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s controversial August 2022 campaign, and China has been steadily erasing the median line entirely. In a recent exercise surrounding Taiwan, 111 Chinese fighter jets flew over the island, the most ever in a single day. A few years ago, Taiwan might have seen hundreds of people cross the line, but it took months.

“We have become desensitized to large numbers of military aircraft flying across the median line of the Taiwan Strait,” Shattuck told Business Insider. “Five years ago that was unheard of. Now it’s Thursday again.”

Because China claims Taiwan as its own territory and has not ruled out using increased military force to achieve unification, there are concerns in Taipei, the United States, and other Western countries that China could one day blockade Taiwan or use military force to achieve unification. There are growing concerns that the United States may launch an invasion. This is because they are bowing to Beijing’s authority.

Beijing’s tactics range from all kinds of intimidation and coercion, including political and economic pressure and large-scale military exercises aimed at forcing the Taiwanese people to reject independence.

Recently, in two joint force exercises “Joint Sword 2024-A” and “Joint Sword 2024-B”, the People’s Liberation Army of China effectively surrounded Taiwan, blockaded major ports and areas, and targeted sea and ground targets. Simulated how to attack. and seize territory.

During the “Joint Sword 2024-B” period, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense announced that a record number of Chinese fighter jets, more than 150 in a day, flew into the ADIZ. In response, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-de, said China aims to “undermine stability and the status quo.”

Taiwan’s military is exhausted by China’s invasion

The near-daily ADIZ incursions do more than just change the status quo in the region. They are also depleting Taiwan’s military power.

In October 2020, then-Taiwan Defense Minister Yen Te-fa said Taipei’s air force and navy spent about $1 billion monitoring Chinese sorties. Since then, Taiwan has adjusted its response to ADIZ violations to secure resources, but the burden remains high.

In this difficult situation, Shattuck said, “the concern is the continued deterioration of Taiwan’s military assets and the attrition of Taiwan’s military personnel.” He explained that China was “exploiting” Taiwan’s military power by forcing them to do so. This is the reply. ”

Shattuck said that if large-scale Chinese exercises suddenly become a reality, they could ultimately weaken Taiwan’s military and that U.S. support for Taiwan is “long overdue and long overdue.” , said Taiwan’s readiness could be hampered.

Mr. Lewis and Mr. Shattuck recently stated that “the median line of the Taiwan Strait — the de facto border that created a semblance of stability on both sides of the strait — no longer exists,” and “Taiwan will defend itself against such Chinese aggression on all fronts.” “I cannot resist it,” he wrote.

It’s a war of attrition, they said, and while Chinese military activity around Taiwan is “part of the normal and worsening reality in the Taiwan Strait,” Taipei and the U.S. still have a card to play. claimed to remain.

Taiwan has long navigated a difficult relationship with the Chinese government, which opposes the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and labels Lai a “separatist.”

In his inaugural address, Lai pledged to protect Taiwan’s democracy as a beacon to the world and called on China to stop threatening Taiwan. This speech further stimulated relations and was soon followed by “Joint Sword 2024-A”. Lai toned down his rhetoric in a National Day speech earlier this month, showing restraint in his calls for peace and understanding.

“Mr. Lai’s National Day speech shows Taipei is seeking ways to offer an olive branch to China while maintaining Taiwan’s de facto sovereignty claims,” ​​Crisis Group said. Amanda Hsiao, senior China analyst at , told BI. However, China’s response, “Joint Sword 2024-B,” was strong and sent a message.

Mr. Shattuck said that no matter what Mr. Lai says or how he approaches the relationship, China does not trust him.

“It no longer matters what kind of olive branch the DPP president extends because the Chinese government will not accept it,” he said, adding, “The Chinese government is trying to accelerate its oppression of Taiwan’s own sovereign territory.” He explained. This has implications for Taiwan and its international partners.

As Chinese forces continue to advance into Taiwan’s ADIZ, the United States and its allies “must remain vigilant in protesting these activities to make clear that military coercion against Taiwan is unacceptable.” said Shattuck.

“It is unrealistic to claim that Taiwan or the United States can deter the People’s Republic of China from air and sea invasions around Taiwan,” he and Lewis write, but options are available. “Washington should strive to increase its ability to track the situation around Taiwan’s territory and provide the necessary resources to counterattack if necessary,” they said.