Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s multi-day visit to China this week caps a particularly busy period of meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited Beijing earlier this month, where she spoke about improving U.S.-China relations and was photographed drinking beer at a local brewery. On April 5, U.S. and Chinese defense officials held maritime talks for the first time in three years. And on April 16, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with his Chinese colleague, Admiral Dong Jun, for the first time since his appointment.
But all is not well. Chinese coast guard ships and maritime militia have been harassing Philippine vessels trying to recruit sailors at Second Thomas Shoal, which is claimed by both Beijing and Manila. The People’s Liberation Army Air Force continues to regularly fly across the Taiwan Strait median line. Meanwhile, the border dispute between China and India in the Himalayas remains unresolved four years after armies clashed in the region.
China, of course, wants to present itself as the innocent victim in all this. Chinese officials say that if anyone is to blame for misunderstandings and misunderstandings, it is the other side. Listen to or read the transcripts of Chinese Foreign Ministry press conferences and you’ll get similar cringe-worthy lines. The United States should stop inciting Cold War-like thinking, the Philippines should stop provoking unnecessary tensions, and Japan should be careful not to become a Cold War state. American deprivation.
In fact, it is China that should look in the mirror. Yes, the Biden administration is making a concerted effort to unite allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific region, primarily to counterbalance China’s growing power. Ultimately, however, China’s desire to become Asia’s largest power player led its smaller neighbors to strengthen their defense capabilities, spend more on their military budgets, and expand mutual security and economic ties. are forced to. The glue that holds all this together is China, not Washington.
None of this is surprising. Not surprising in the least. History is full of cases in which ambitious hegemons threaten neighboring countries into action. Just as powerful states do not like hostile alliances encroaching on their sphere of influence, weak states do not like when great powers threaten or even overwhelm their interests. The old adage of Thucydides, “The strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must” is only partially true. Weak people, or at least weak people, also have agency. And in many cases, that means strengthening relationships with states with similar threat perceptions.
This is exactly what we are seeing in Asia today. Japan, a country traditionally tired of militarism given its history, is now at the forefront of what can be seen as a balancing coalition against China. The constitution, imposed by the Americans after the defeat of Imperial Japan in World War II, has been reinterpreted to give Tokyo a more active role in regional security. Last December, Japan approved a record defense budget of nearly $56 billion, and that figure is set to rise to $63 billion in 2027. Japan has also purchased equipment and military platforms, such as intermediate-range surface-to-surface missiles. , could endanger targets in China and North Korea if a conflict were to occur.
The Philippines is undergoing similar changes, but at a slower pace and with modest numbers. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has abandoned his predecessor’s pro-China policies and strengthened the 70-year-old defense alliance between Manila and Washington. He is wary of China and its vast territorial claims in the South China Sea, and the Philippines plans to spend $35 billion over the next 10 years to strengthen its navy.
In 2023, Marcos agreed to give the US military access to four more military bases in the Philippines. The Filipinos are also conducting military exercises more frequently, not only bilaterally with the United States, but also multilaterally with the United States, Australia, and Japan. The trilateral summit between US President Biden, President Marcos and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida held at the White House this month probably would not have taken place if regional concerns about the rise of China were not so prevalent among the three countries. It would have been.
China’s weight is also being felt just outside East Asia. India, South Asia’s largest power, increasingly views Beijing not as a friend or trading partner but as a rival seeking to weaken its influence in the Indian Ocean region. China’s attempts to unilaterally change the India-China border and the failure of Beijing and New Delhi to reach a diplomatic agreement on the issue appears to have woken up the Indian foreign policy establishment. There are no more illusions about China’s motives.
Australia is no different, having actually touted a strong bilateral relationship with China in the not-too-distant past. The situation comes amid allegations of Chinese spying and growing influence over Australian politics, with China imposing tariffs on Australian wine and coal in retaliation for Canberra’s calls for an investigation into the COVID-19 pandemic. That’s how it ended. Australian policymakers are now talking about peace and tranquility in the Taiwan Strait much more frequently than in past years. Australia is also keeping its mouth shut and spending money. This month, Australia’s Department of Defense announced that $491 billion will be spent on defense over the next 10 years.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and his spokespeople throughout the Chinese Communist Party clearly do not like this development. If they were honest with themselves, they would look in the mirror.
