- author, Rupert Wingfield Hayes
- role, BBC News, Taipei
Shortly after China began military exercises in the air and sea around Taiwan, it began harshly criticizing Taiwan’s new president, William Lai, who is said to have started them.
From the editorial pages of state broadcaster CCTV and the Global Times to a Foreign Ministry spokesperson, the criticism of Lai was unmistakably harsh.
The Global Times has already slammed him as “arrogant” and “reckless”, while CCTV wrote that he “will surely be nailed to history’s pillar of shame” and slammed him for “peddling the two-states theory”. It also warned that if Lai and the DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) “continue along the destined path of Taiwan independence, it will eventually crash and burn”.
President Lai’s alleged crime is his use of the word “China” to describe China in his inaugural speech on Monday, in which Beijing says he revealed his true belief that Taiwan is not China, but that they are two separate countries — an admission, in their eyes, of his “separatist” ideology.
To an outsider, this may all sound absurd. But Beijing and Taipei have been vague for decades about the definition of China and whether Taiwan is part of it. Even former President Tsai was careful to refer to China using euphemisms like “the other side of the strait” or “the Beijing authorities.”
Some Taiwanese scholars would say that such language is significant and that Lai has crossed a red line. Others say Beijing’s dislike of him has already been solidified and that his speech was merely a rhetorical justification for the threat.
Most agree that the basic fact remains: Xi Jinping wants China to dominate Taiwan, and the Taiwanese people don’t think so.
However, no one in Taiwan is particularly surprised. To them, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is quite predictable. When Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party won its third consecutive presidential election there in early January, many wondered how and when the Chinese government would react.
The natural assumption was that it would be after Mr. Yori’s term began with his first presidential address. And now, three days after Mr. Lai’s inauguration as president, Beijing has responded.
The main clue that none of this is spontaneous is in the preparation: no military, not even the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), can mobilize training on this scale in a matter of days. It’s hard to say exactly what’s going on, but according to what the Chinese government has publicized, the area covered by these drills is probably the largest they’ve ever seen, and includes most of the Taiwan Strait, the Bashi Channel (which separates Taiwan from the Philippines) and a large swath of the Pacific Ocean along Taiwan’s east coast.
It is also noteworthy that Taiwan’s scattered islands near the Chinese coast are included for the first time. The People’s Liberation Army has marked it as “surrounded” by Chinese forces. Chinese military commentator Zhang Zhi said on CCTV that the exercise demonstrated the People’s Liberation Army’s “ability to seize control of Taiwan’s key infrastructure.”
Image source, Taiwan Coast Guard Bureau
Chie Chung, a Taiwanese military expert, said the exercise resembled a simulation of an all-out attack on the island, minus the actual landing of troops. He believes the inclusion of all of Taiwan’s offshore islands indicates China’s plan to eliminate facilities that could launch a counterattack against the People’s Liberation Army. He also believes that this two-day exercise is not the last that Taiwan will have to endure this year, which is why it has been dubbed “Joint Sword 2024-A.”
On the streets of Taipei, the reaction to the drill was a collective shrug. Many people will say they are not worried. But that’s not entirely true. Living next to China is like living in an earthquake zone. Threats are ever-present and training is getting bigger and more dangerous, so you need to be prepared for it. But you also need to get on with your life.
Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party and the opposition have a tense relationship, with the two parties arguing in parliament last week, but China’s military drills have united them. The opposition Kuomintang, traditionally seen as pro-China, has called on Beijing to exercise restraint. Now is not the time for them to be perceived as friendly to Beijing.
There is a strange irony here – it shows how little China’s communist leaders understand Taiwan and its people.
They declared today that military operations are focused solely on “deterring and defeating independent forces.”
They say Lai is the worst Taiwanese leader to challenge Beijing. “Mr. Lai has surpassed Lee Teng-hui, Chen Shui-bian, and Tsai Ing-wen in promoting Taiwan’s independence,” the CCTV commentary said. These former presidents, voted on by the Taiwanese people, make up China’s pantheon of “separatists.” Three of them are from the Democratic Party.
Every time China increases its military threat, support for the Democratic Progressive Party tends to rise, while support for the “pro-China” Kuomintang Party tends to fall. In a more recent example, a months-long military invasion before elections in January brought Mr. Lai to the top position.
If the aim is to scare Taiwanese people away from political parties and leaders who challenge Beijing, so far it appears to be having the opposite effect.
