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Hong Kong
CNN
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While Russian President Vladimir Putin glided through the crowd-packed streets of Pyongyang with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in a luxury Mercedes Benz this week, the two dictators’ most important partners looked on from the sidelines hundreds of miles away in Beijing.
Five years ago, Xi Jinping was offered a ride in the same convertible with Kim when he became the first Chinese leader to visit Pyongyang in 14 years. The two leaders pledged to strengthen ties and deepen cooperation, but those words paled in comparison to the “groundbreaking” new partnership Kim and Putin forged last week.
In a wide-ranging treaty covering political, trade, investment and security cooperation, North Korea and Russia pledged to use all available means to provide immediate military assistance if the other side came under attack.
Putin said ties between Russia and North Korea had been elevated to a “new level,” while Kim Jong Un called the new “alliance” a “turning point” in bilateral relations.
The landmark new defense pact between the two nuclear powers has rattled the United States and its Asian allies. Japan expressed “serious concerns” about Putin’s pledge not to rule out cooperation with North Korea on military technology. South Korea responded by saying it would convene an emergency National Security Council meeting to consider sending weapons to Ukraine.
In contrast, reaction from China, the main political and economic backer of both Russia and North Korea, has been largely muted.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman declined to comment, saying the treaty was a bilateral issue between Russia and North Korea.
But analysts say the official silence likely means China is watching warily.
The deepening ties between the two mercurial autocrats threaten to create new uncertainties for President Xi Jinping, who needs peace and stability in Northeast Asia as he grapples with a host of challenges at home, not least an economic slowdown.
Liu Dongshu, an associate professor of Chinese politics at City University of Hong Kong, said Beijing is concerned that Moscow’s support for Pyongyang, particularly with military technology, will further aid and embolden the volatile Kim Jong Un regime, which has dramatically accelerated the build-up of its nuclear weapons and missile programs.
“Regarding the North Korea issue, China aims to control the situation and prevent escalation, but it also doesn’t want North Korea to collapse completely,” Liu said, fearing that a complete collapse of North Korea would allow the United States to extend its influence to its doorstep.
Until now, Russia has been largely aligned with China on this issue, but its desperate need for North Korea’s support in its war in Ukraine threatens to upset the delicate balance.
KCNA/Reuters/File
Kim Jong Un drives with Chinese leader Xi Jinping through the streets of Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 21, 2019.
A February U.S. statement said Russia had received more than 10,000 containers worth 260,000 tons of military or military-related materials from North Korea since September, a claim both Russia and North Korea deny.
The United States accuses China of supplying dual-use materials that bolster Russia’s military-industrial complex, but China has refrained from providing direct military assistance to Putin and has avoided supporting Kim Jong Un’s nuclear and missile programs.
“If President Putin provides North Korea with more support, including technical assistance, on the nuclear issue, it will be more difficult for China to control the situation on the Korean Peninsula,” Liu said.
The mutual defense pact signed by Kim Jong Un and Putin is reminiscent of a Cold War-era treaty between North Korea and the Soviet Union in 1961 that was replaced after the Soviet Union collapsed by one offering far weaker security guarantees.
However, a mutual defense treaty between North Korea and China was also signed in 1961 and has been renewed several times and is still in effect today.
The Sino-North Korean Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance is the only formal military alliance treaty China has with another country, but Beijing does not recognize it and has remained deliberately vague about whether China would automatically be obligated to defend North Korea if war broke out.
Similarly, it is unclear what Russia and North Korea would be willing or able to do to each other under a new defense pact.
The new pact comes amid rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula, where Kim Jong Un has used increasingly fiery rhetoric and abandoned a longstanding policy of peaceful unification with the South. No formal peace treaty has been signed between the two Koreas since the Korean War ended in 1953, and the two Koreas remain technically in a state of war.
But the political message of the deal is clear: Driven by a shared hostility toward the United States and its allies, the two autocracies seek to undermine the Western-led world order and replace it, something China also aspires to do.
After his meeting with Kim, Putin expressed indignation at what he called the “imperialist policies of the United States and its satellite countries.”
Alexander Ryumin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
President Putin and President Xi Jinping attended a concert together in Beijing on May 16, 2024.
A month ago, Putin and Xi made similar criticisms of the United States during the Russian leader’s visit to Beijing. In a sweeping joint statement, the two “old friends” took aim at what they called a global security system defined by U.S.-backed military alliances and vowed to work together to counter it.
Western observers have warned about the gradual but growing alignment of interests between China, Russia, North Korea and Iran, which one senior U.S. military commander recently likened to a new “axis of evil.”
Liu said Beijing would carefully distance itself as Moscow and Pyongyang deepen their alliance, adding that “China never wants to be seen as part of a new axis.”
But despite Xi’s absence, China was surely a major concern throughout Putin and Kim’s meeting.
“China will likely be discussed at these meetings,” said Edward Howell, a politics lecturer at Britain’s Oxford University who specializes in Korean issues.
“Russia will be well aware that China does not want to be left out of any substantive negotiations regarding North Korea, because China is far more important to North Korea than Russia.”
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank, said China does not believe it can control the pace and scope of deepening engagement with Russia and North Korea.
“But they know that China plays an invaluable role for both Russia and North Korea,” she said.
China is the largest trading partner of both Russia and North Korea, providing a vital lifeline to their economies which are under heavy sanctions. Beijing also provides significant political support and diplomatic protection to the two international pariahs.
“China does not believe that the alliance between Russia and North Korea will be a betrayal,” said Liu, of the City University of Hong Kong.
“Neither country has the ability to betray China. Despite being allies, they still need to rely on China.”
