However, the reasons behind Beijing’s move are not entirely without basis, they said, adding that Beijing may soon be ready to hold its own summit convening the two warring countries.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Mao Ning confirmed last week that China would not attend the summit, saying: “China has repeatedly stressed that an international peace conference must meet three key elements: the recognition of both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation of all parties, and fair discussion of all peace proposals.”
“As far as China is concerned, it seems the conference has not yet met these three elements, and that is precisely why China cannot participate in the conference.”
Mao supported China’s decision as “fair and legitimate” and said the measures were not aimed at any particular political party or the summit.
“Support for peace should not be judged based on a particular country or a particular conference. China sincerely hopes that the peace conference will not become a platform for creating bloc conflict. Not attending does not mean we do not support peace.”
Russia said it would not have attended the meeting even if it had been invited, thanked China for ignoring the summit and praised Beijing’s balanced approach.
But other countries may not feel the same way. “This doesn’t look good for China,” said David Arasse, a professor of international politics at Hopkins University’s Nanjing Center.
Moscow was “doing everything to sabotage the peace summit” [by using] “Chinese influence in the region,” he said.
According to Arase, Europe may take China’s non-participation as “further evidence of China’s continuing diplomatic and economic support for Russia’s armed aggression against European peace and security.”
02:29
During the Shangri-La Dialogue, President Zelensky urges China to help end the Ukraine war
During the Shangri-La Dialogue, President Zelensky urges China to help end the Ukraine war
China has repeatedly portrayed itself as a neutral country facilitating peace talks, but Xi’s close relationship with Putin and Beijing’s growing diplomatic and economic support for Russia’s war effort have made that position questionable in the West, he added.
Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center think tank, said China’s position was “not unreasonable” but that Beijing’s cold shoulder would “have a negative impact on China,” especially in the West.
“The peace conference should aim at a political solution, and for that Russia’s participation is essential. Without Russia’s participation, the peace conference will become a posturing, a stance, an application of pressure. It will be a kind of peace conference, but it is unlikely to actually lead to peace.”
Wang Yiwei, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China, stressed that although China is not directly involved in the Ukraine war, it has suffered heavy losses in investments and other areas and wants an end to the conflict.
But with Russia absent, the summit is likely to focus on condemning Moscow and offering help to Kiev, which will not resolve the “fundamental issues,” he said.
“That is the crux of the issue. If that is the case, then whether or not we participate in this international conference will not solve the fundamental problem.”
According to Wang, Ukraine will likely try to gain support for its own 10-point peace plan, which is “unrealistic” from Russia’s perspective.
Ahead of the summit, Kiev said on Tuesday it wanted Russia to attend the second summit to receive an internationally agreed roadmap for ending the conflict.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested last month that China could host a peace conference involving both Russia and Ukraine.
But Arase said “it is highly unlikely that Ukraine would accept China as a neutral and sincere peace broker,” and Sun said it would have to see “concrete prospects for outcomes” if Beijing were to host such a meeting.
Wang offered a more optimistic assessment, citing major political events taking place this year, including the elections in the US, UK and France, as well as the recent European Parliament elections.
“Once these institutions of power are stabilized, the truth will become clearer about whether Russia can be defeated,” he said, noting concerns in some parts of the West over continuing aid to Ukraine.
“I think once they understand that Ukraine cannot fight, China can hold a peace summit like this and we can really reach a ceasefire agreement.”
