In recent years, discussions about cognitive warfare have become active, centering on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). According to an article on October 5, 2022, People’s Liberation Army Daily, Cognitive warfare is a conflict in the cognitive domain formed from human consciousness and thinking, which affects human judgment, changes thoughts, and influences the human mind through selective processing and dissemination of information. This is believed to shape reality in a way that favors China. In other words, the aim is to advance the war in an advantageous manner by influencing the perceptions of target civilians, military personnel, and political leaders through various means such as disseminating disinformation and cyberattacks, and creating social chaos. cause and reduce the will to fight. fighting, low military morale, and poor judgment among political leaders.
Cognitive warfare, such as propaganda using radio broadcasts and deception through dissemination of disinformation, is by no means a recent phenomenon, but the PLA’s increased emphasis on cognitive warfare greatly increases its effectiveness. This is due to the development of technology. The first development was the worldwide expansion of the Internet and the rapid adoption of social media. The latter in particular allows massive amounts of falsified or biased information to be instantly distributed to a very large number of targets, creating an infrastructure for effective cognitive warfare. The second development is the rapid emergence of artificial intelligence. By leveraging AI, it is now possible to create highly sophisticated fake videos called deepfakes. Improved AI translation capabilities could also overcome language barriers, increasing the effectiveness of cognitive warfare against countries that use other languages. For the People’s Liberation Army, these technologies give them an edge in cognitive warfare, perhaps allowing them to “win without fighting,” avoiding physical combat that would inevitably result in property and human losses. Expectations are rising.
Due to technological limitations, it is still unlikely that a war can be won through operations in the cognitive domain alone. However, by combining operations in the cognitive, physical, and informational domains, China aims to secure superiority in peacetime and victory in wartime. It is already conducting simultaneous operations against Taiwan in these three areas. For example, when Taiwan was in the midst of its presidential and legislative elections, China spread fake images on social media purporting to show candidates from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) involved in scandals. China also indirectly supported the rival Kuomintang Party, which advocates easing tensions with China, by conducting military exercises in the sea and airspace surrounding Taiwan and flying military balloons over Taiwan. Meanwhile, there were also attempts to influence the election in the information field, such as hacking routers and posting false information on social media.
China’s operations in the physical and informational domains as well as the cognitive domain can be seen more broadly as cognitive warfare aimed at changing the electoral outcome in China’s favor by influencing the perceptions of Taiwanese voters. It may be possible. It is difficult to assess how effective China’s perception war against Taiwan is. In the recent presidential election, William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party won over 40% of the vote, and in the Legislative Yuan election, the Kuomintang won 52 seats, slightly more than the Democratic Progressive Party’s 51 seats. Of course, there are many factors that can influence the election outcome, but it is clear that China’s perception wars will not have a decisive influence this time.
Still, China will continue its efforts. Further technological advances could dramatically increase the effectiveness of cognitive warfare. Generative AI technology is rapidly evolving, as seen in OpenAI’s Sora, and in the not-too-distant future it will be easy to create sophisticated fake videos that the average person will be unable to distinguish from the real thing. You will be able to do it. . Meanwhile, brain-machine interface (BMI) technology, which connects the human cerebrum to devices, is also rapidly developing, and in China, quadriplegic patients can use BMI technology to move a cursor on a screen or pneumatic gloves. Now you can. With the continued development of BMI technology, it may be possible to influence a subject’s brain and control their thoughts from an external device. China is focusing on developing generative AI and BMI technologies, and will continue to strive toward the ultimate goal of “winning without fighting” by improving its ability to control human cognition.
The societies most vulnerable to cognitive warfare are those that are free and open. China plans to deploy cognitive warfare techniques not only in wartime but also in peacetime. Democracies must remain vigilant against attempts to foster social division and destabilize politics, and develop systems and technologies to counter such attacks.
Masashi Iida Director of Security Research, National Institute for Defense Studies (NIDS)
