As the bleak demographic crisis continues, Beijing is being urged to establish a large-scale data monitoring system to better understand population and household changes and trends across China, and to prepare for population decline to become the norm.
“China’s population and family statistics system and dynamic monitoring mechanism should be improved with increased financial and human support,” said He Dan, director of the China Population and Development Research Center, a think tank under the National Health Commission.
“The goal is to establish China’s own population and household statistics system and dynamic monitoring system during the 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030,” the policy adviser added.
The proposal comes amid persistent concerns about China’s demographic crisis, with a rapidly shrinking and ageing population, plummeting birth rates and many young people increasingly reluctant to start families.
Economists say China’s demographic dilemma is one of the major obstacles to the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy.
However, although demographers expect a temporary recovery in the number of newborns over the next few years due to the effects of the end of the pandemic, the implementation of a series of pro-birth policies, and this year being the auspicious Year of the Dragon in the Chinese zodiac, the long-term outlook for births is expected to continue to decline.
Demographers point out that the number of women of childbearing age is declining and young people are becoming increasingly averse to marriage and childbirth.
According to the China Population and Development Research Center, the number of households in China is expected to increase from 494 million in 2020 to 550 million by 2035, but the average family size may fall from 2.62 people to 2.3 people.
Meanwhile, He said China’s demographics and public policies have not adequately demonstrated or addressed the lack of support and care for households.
“China should regard the family as the basic unit of public policy, strengthen family values, integrate family functions, and establish a family public policy system with unique Chinese characteristics,” He said, adding that goals also included stabilizing the birth rate and improving families’ spending capacity.
She also said research institutes should be encouraged to jointly establish a national population and family big data laboratory to conduct statistical analysis and policy simulations to enhance decision-making support, while artificial intelligence-driven population models should be incorporated into the national research and development plan to promote innovative research methods.
