A Russian military blitzkrieg has seized more than a dozen villages near Ukraine’s second-largest city in northeastern Ukraine over the past few weeks, and Russia is likely to continue its offensive in the east this summer.
Russia’s ability to carry out such attacks is somewhat astonishing. War is expensive, and the Russian economy is limited by harsh sanctions imposed by some of the world’s richest countries. Yet Moscow continues to foot the bill for its own war machine.
How? U.S. officials point to China.
China has vowed not to send weapons to Russia. But it has supported the Russian economy by buying oil and expanding other trade, which Russia uses to build weapons. U.S. officials say Russia also buys parts for those weapons from China. Last year, Russia got 90 percent of its microelectronics imports from China for use in missiles, tanks and aircraft. Without Beijing’s support, Moscow may still continue the war, but it would do so in a weakened state.
Of course, Washington and its allies are also providing Ukraine with support, including actual weapons. Seen from that perspective, the war looks less like a one-off conflict and more like part of a broader contest between the U.S. and China, part of what some analysts call a new Cold War. “We’re heading for 30 to 40 years of superpower competition and conflict,” says my colleague David Sanger, who covers national security and recently published a book called “The New Cold War.” Ukraine is just the current front line.
In today’s newsletter, we explain what China stands to gain and lose by supporting Russia.
China’s bet
Supporting Russia carries risks — the U.S. and Europe have warned that they could impose sanctions if China supports the war — but for China, the benefits of a Russian victory in Ukraine may outweigh the costs.
Among the benefits: the war has drawn the United States and its allies into a far-flung conflict, straining U.S. military ammunition stockpiles, and making military power Russia more dependent on China. It has also taught lessons: China, with its ambitions of invading Taiwan, has been watching the Russian gamble to see the world’s reaction. The gamble has exposed the limits of U.S. influence. Washington has lobbied its closest allies to punish Russia for the invasion, while large democracies like Brazil and India continue to buy Russian oil.
“Even on issues that US officials consider to be black and white, like Ukraine, the rest of the world will not go along with what the US wants,” my foreign policy colleague Edward Wong told me. “That’s been clear ever since the war.”
Still, China’s support for Russia could backfire, and in some ways it has already. When Xi Jinping visited France this month, European leaders who criticized China’s involvement bristled at China’s interference. It could also make the U.S. more open to tougher trade restrictions and policies to hurt Beijing. The war has united the U.S. and its allies for the first time in decades. If Russia loses, China could find itself with a diminished partner and strained relations with the world’s largest economy.
China has attempted a delicate balancing act between risks and benefits, touting its “unrestricted” cooperation with Russia, but it has insisted it would be neutral in any war and sought to maintain plausible deniability about supporting its partners.
Conclusion
Will China’s gamble pay off? That will depend on the outcome of the conflict.
If the United States and its allies stop supporting Ukraine and Ukraine loses the war, China’s biggest partner will win. The West will not seem as strong or united as it once did. China will know this and may strengthen its territorial claims in places like Taiwan and the South China Sea.
But a victory in Ukraine with the West remaining united would have the opposite effect: Russia would be weakened and humiliated, the United States and its allies would have proven they remain formidable, and China might reconsider whether it can afford to take aggressive action to expand its borders.
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In central Kiev, people queue for hours to buy tickets to “The Witches of Konotop.” The play is based on a classic 19th-century Ukrainian novel that begins with the line, “Sad and gloomy.” It tells the story of a Cossack leader who tries to eradicate witches he believes are the cause of a drought, all while a military threat from Tsarist Russia looms.
“It is very difficult to exaggerate the harsh reality that Ukrainians are living through today, but the play should capture the mood of the times and the people,” the director said.
