China has sharply stepped up harassment of other countries in the South China Sea in recent days, and has adopted a particularly belligerent attitude toward the Philippines.
China’s aggressive behavior — chasing away fishing boats, attacking other vessels with water cannons and essentially suffocating foreign ships with swarms of Chinese coast guard and naval vessels — has been going on for at least a decade, but Beijing’s relentless aggression in the South China Sea is more likely to spark conflict than the great power dispute over Taiwan.
Since the spring, and particularly over the past week, China has stepped up efforts to harass and chase away Philippine vessels operating in its exclusive economic zone. over 100 Chinese coast guard vessels and so-called maritime militia ships have continually disrupted resupply missions to a Philippine outpost at Second Thomas Shoal, a small reef about 105 nautical miles off the Philippines’ west coast.
In the past week alone, the number of Chinese naval vessels Nearby doublingThe United States has also expanded its harassment campaign to include military exercises around Sabina Reef, another small atoll close to the Philippines (Manila Suspect China continues to actively pursue harassment campaigns targeting further afield, such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, though not with the same intensity as against the Philippines.
What is remarkable about recent Chinese efforts is the extent to which they are willing to go to disrupt the daily activities of the Philippines. In late May, a Chinese crew member on a small vessel Stealing airdropped food For the Philippine Marines Sierra Madreis the stranded ship that Manila is using to physically assert its claim to the Second Thomas. That same month, China also interfered with Philippine efforts to medically evacuate marines from the stranded ship.
“With the Philippines, China is broadening its toolkit. It’s doing things it didn’t do with Vietnam or Malaysia,” said Collin Koh of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore. “It’s using every tool short of force.”
Low-intensity fighting for control of the South China Sea, one of the world’s most vital shipping lanes and a promising source of offshore oil and gas, has been going on for years. Increased speed Beijing is “Nine-dash line” Maps and more Strategy China lays claim to small rocks and atolls hundreds of miles from the Chinese mainland. Other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, also have strong territorial claims of their own that fuel Beijing’s expansionist ambitions. For example, China has been asserting control over the area for a decade. Drive away A Vietnamese drilling rig is exploring operating within Vietnamese territorial waters.
It is not just the increasing pace of Chinese activity that makes Chinese maritime harassment now less subtle and more concerning, but also China’s increasingly bellicose rhetoric, coupled with growing resolve from the Philippines, bolstered by a decades-old defense treaty with the United States.
At the Shangri-La Security Dialogue in Singapore last weekend, China’s defense minister Condemned He saw this as US support for Taipei and Manila, andWe will not allow any country or force to cause conflict or chaos in this region,” other Chinese generals said. criticized A foreign “wolf” trying to interfere in their backyard.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Said The Philippines told the conference it would defend its rights in the disputed waters, citing a landmark 2016 binding agreement. Arbitration Award From The Hague, Chinese actions leading to the deaths of Filipinos Mutual defense pact with the United States. Washington already AffirmedIn the past two governments, Such events The mutual defense treaty in the South China Sea will be activated.
That’s bad enough, but in recent years Chinese ships and aircraft have conducted dangerous military exercises in the region aimed at fending off U.S., allied and third-party ships and aircraft, raising the risk of accidental escalation.
“I think the South China Sea is a much more likely trigger than Taiwan,” said Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The threshold for such a conflict is lower than a fight over Taiwan” and would not result in nuclear war, he said. But it wouldn’t necessarily build up over a long period of time. “This is something that could wake us up,” he said.
But why is China expending so much energy, incurring so much international criticism, and risking open conflict over a handful of insignificant stones?
first, Abundant energy resources Natural gas is abundant throughout the South China Sea, especially in the southern area between Vietnam and Malaysia. This is one reason why countries such as Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia are actively exploring and drilling for energy resources throughout the region, despite years of Chinese interference.
China is busy drilling in waters close to its own coasts, but the rich resources that Vietnam and Malaysia are trying to extract over China’s objections are of little use to China, except that they are far from any waters China can legally claim. The gas reserves are too far from China to be pumped or piped to the mainland, but their energy wealth makes them attractive prey to neighboring countries that want to extract the gas (and oil) to reduce their dependence on imported energy.
“Energy resources are important, but only for Southeast Asian countries,” Poling said. “China just doesn’t want them to have them.”
Another reason for China’s persistence, Ko said, is the geopolitical importance of smaller reefs in Beijing’s eyes, especially the shoals close to the Philippines. China already controls reefs further west, including the Spratly and Paracel Islands and nearby Mischief Reef. What appears vulnerable is the eastern flank, including the continued Philippine presence at Second Thomas Island, bolstered by Philippine control of the nearby Sabina Shoal.
“There aren’t many significant strategic assets worth having in that part of the South China Sea,” Ko said. “Second Thomas Shoal has significant value.”
But at the end of the day, China is determined to seize every inch of land in the vast swath of ocean it claims, because that is what Chinese President Xi Jinping wants. I vowed repeatedly Since taking office, Xi has stressed the importance of asserting “sovereignty” over all areas that China claims as Chinese territory, even though such claims are not backed by international law or maritime law. Enhanced He created and empowered the world’s largest coast guard and reneged on his promise not to militarize the South China Sea by turning tiny sandbars into military bases through land reclamation.
“Xi is doing this for political correctness and nationalism,” Poling said. “He put all of this in his first China Dream speech in 2013. He revamped the China Coast Guard. He approved island construction. They’re adamant because it’s as much a part of the China Dream as the Belt and Road Initiative or unification with Taiwan.”
The problem for Beijing is that its tactics aren’t working. The Philippines, especially under President Marcos, who reversed his predecessor’s policy of appeasement toward China, has adopted a tougher stance. That tough stance is pragmatic, including closer ties. Defense The Philippines has kept its promises to the United States and has repeatedly made rhetorical claims, including frequently claiming legal victories over China in the South China Sea dispute. Beijing, which has effectively ignored the 2016 ruling for years, has been quick to point out that the Philippines has repeatedly denied its claims, often by recalling scathing legal rebukes against China. Trying to undermine itIn the process, we remind everyone that the Philippines has international law on its side.
China’s other targets have not retreated either. Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia have all Push forward Ambitious offshore oil and gas projects. 3 countries Intensified Maritime Security cooperation Cooperate with the Philippines to deal with potential conflicts in the region. Groups in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that have been reluctant to condemn China have finally Weighed Regarding the worsening security situation at the end of last year.
“China is doing the same thing every month,” Poling said. “All they’re really doing is building an anti-China coalition.”
