- Written by Chris Mason
- political editor
good morning. First of all, it’s the early days.
When there is a general election, we are used to waking up on Friday morning to find out the results.
That is simply not the case in this patchwork of local and regional elections.
There are still tons of results to come later today, tomorrow, and beyond.
But here’s what we can reveal so far:
The Conservative Party is in a very difficult situation. They lost about half of the seats they had defended.
If this rate of decline continues in all contested seats, it would match the worst performance in the 1995 series of local elections in terms of percentage of seats lost.
And we know what happened two years later in 1997 – they suffered a landslide defeat in the general election.
These are the kinds of numbers that will leave Conservative MPs very surprised.
Labor insists on the importance of geography, not just numbers, in terms of profits.
To gauge the level of excitement, Labor people were particularly excited at around 3am when they took control of Rushmoor council in Hampshire.
Why am I excited about this? Well, this is a council they’ve never held before, and it includes the military town of Aldershot.
Sir Keir Starmer is trying to convince voters that his party can be trusted on defence, and Labor sources say this result is proof it is working.
“earthquake”
“I can’t think of a better example of voters seeing us as an unusual party,” a Labor Party official texted me.
And just before 5am, Labor’s smiles widened even further when the results of the Blackpool South by-election were announced.
Voter turnout was limited, but support for Labor was impressive.
No wonder Sir Keir’s words appeared within seconds, describing it as an “earthquake” and “the most important result of the day”.
Reform UK came very close to defeating the Conservatives in coastal Lancashire, and although this is an area where they are expected to do well, they have fielded candidates in local elections and police and crime commissioner elections. It is contained.
There are some other early observations.
Labor has suffered in areas with a significant proportion of Muslim voters, and there appears to be evidence of negative reactions to Labour’s approach to the Israel-Gaza conflict.
The Liberal Democrats believe they are gaining enough ground to be confident of winning the general election, even at the expense of the Conservatives.
And the Green Party is doing well again. Their share of the vote in local elections has increased over the past decade and looks set to increase further.
In summary, so far it’s been a tough time for the Conservatives, but a bright spot for Labor.
But remember: Two-thirds of his city council seats, where elections were held yesterday, have not yet begun counting votes.
The same goes for mayoral elections and many police and crime commissioner elections.
It’s going to be a long weekend. It’s not just because Monday is a holiday.
