2024 will be a notable year for a large number of elections in over 60 countries, roughly half the world’s population. Of course, there are an infinite number of systems, and we’re only halfway through the year, but in general, it looks like a year in which presidential forms of government and coalition governments of parliamentary democracies will dominate.
Indonesia and Mexico have seen their presidential candidates win overwhelming majorities, and Mexico has seen its first woman assume the top office, because presidential systems tend to have tie-breaking methods such as runoff elections or parliamentary votes. Still, many presidential systems now have highly diverse and “coalition-like” parliaments, such as those in the United States and South Korea.
Parliamentary elections in India, South Africa and Pakistan, as well as in the European Parliament and South Korea, have produced surprisingly diverse outcomes, with multi-party coalition governments the only political path forward in these countries.
The word “confederation” traces its origins back to the Latin word “coalitus,” meaning to grow together. The word was first used in a political context in the 18th century to describe political organizations from different backgrounds united in common shared goals.
In times of national crisis, rival parties may come together to form a coalition government to counter internal or external threats. Such coalitions are called “grand coalitions” or “national unity” governments. Israel has a history of such governance, including during the 1967 Six-Day War, the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, and most recently after the October 2023 Hamas attacks.
The United States has not had a unity government since Abraham Lincoln called on Democrat Andrew Johnson to share power during the Civil War in 1864. The United Kingdom has not had a unity government since World War II and the Great Depression. India has not had a unity government since independence in 1947.
South Africa formed its first so-called unity government last week, with the African National Congress teaming up with the predominantly white Democratic Alliance party. Only time will tell whether this dramatic shift in political affiliation will endure.
The idea of coalitions has been studied extensively in game theory under the common name “multi-agent games.” A Nash equilibrium, named after Nobel Prize winner John Nash immortalized in the film “A Beautiful Mind,” is a strategy profile in which no player can increase their payoff by deviating from their current strategy unless other players deviate. Coalition formation is inherently cooperative or competitive.
The tension between cooperation and competition, and the incentives for either built into the partnership agreement, defines how “efficient” its formation is. Economists use the term “Pareto optimal” to describe an effective formulation. To most lay observers, politicians’ actions may seem mercurial and capricious, not amenable to rational study. However, rigorous study of coalitions yields outcome scenarios that apply to most situations.
It is too early to tell whether the global disillusionment with politics and politicians that began about 15 years ago, which gave birth to the populist nationalists (Pop Nuts), has reached a stage of exhaustion. However, recent manifestations of disillusionment have meant shifts in the strength of opposition parties in presidential elections (take Brazil and the United States as examples) and the increasing frequency of mixed chambers in parliamentary systems (e.g. the European Parliament, India, Pakistan).
Even in Turkey, where pop-naturalist Recep Erdogan is set to return to power in 2023, his Justice and Development Party (AK) won far fewer seats than a majority for the first time since he first took power two decades ago. In Europe, where coalition governments have a long history, the rise of the far-right in the European Parliament elections (and its earlier rise to power in Italy) signals a political “multipolarization.”
The current struggle to capture the center is fierce between parties that cater to minorities and rivals that indulge the majority. The definitions of majority and minority vary from country to country and situation to situation, but there is widespread confusion about how to eliminate either extreme.
Large, diverse democracies are best run from the center. In the 1990s and early 2000s, centrism was politically fashionable in countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and India. About two decades ago, this centrism gave way to political upheaval, with political divisions over issues such as immigration, identity, globalization and integration.
The recent resurgence of coalition governments seems to result from another major political upheaval, with no clear winners among the various political orientations. The political system that will result from the latest upheaval is still unclear. What is clear is the widespread disillusionment with distributive economics and “wokeness” on the one hand, and identitarian authoritarianism on the other. Most democracies are trying to resolve this issue.
P.S.: According to the Samudra Manthan story in the Vishnu Purana, “In ancient times, the Devas (gods) and Asuras (demons) churned the primordial ocean to obtain Amrita, the nectar of immortality.”
