With just over five months until Election Day, analysts from nationally known nonpartisan newsletters are adjusting their ratings for North Carolina’s most closely watched state race. Cook Political Reports is currently rating the gubernatorial race between Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson as “close.” It was previously rated as “Dem-favored.” Senate and gubernatorial editor Jessica Taylor said CPR initially rated the race this way due to past success of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in North Carolina and the possibility that Robinson’s past comments about women, the LGBTQ+ community, and the Holocaust could reduce swing votes. But with his fundraising numbers remaining strong and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings in North Carolina continuing to stagnate, Taylor believes this could be one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country. “If Trump wins (North Carolina) with a high single-digit approval rating, I think it’s going to be much harder mathematically for Democrats to get that far. I think that’s Josh Stein’s biggest problem right now,” Taylor said. A nonpartisan poll conducted by CPR had the two parties tied at 37 points, but Taylor noted that this indicates a significant percentage of undecided voters. She thinks it’s likely that many of them simply haven’t paid attention to this race yet. And now that the summer vacation season is upon us, they may not pay attention for a few more months. “My boss, Amy Walter, says this is like the Green Day election: ‘Wake me up when September ends.’ So I’m keeping an eye on the poll results after that. More and more voters are going to be watching TV on Labor Day. And I think that’s also a result of the fact that we have two very unpopular presidential candidates,” Taylor said. Despite the unfavorable shift in CPR’s ratings, Taylor still sees some positive signs for Stein’s campaign. Their surveys show Stein is doing well among voters willing to split their votes and among independent women voters, one of the most important demographics in a gubernatorial election. Stein leads by 11 points among independent women and 31 points among college-educated independent women, according to CPR. The economy is the top issue for voters right now, and Robinson’s oratory skills and ability to connect with voters through her own humble upbringing will help him in the coming months, she says. North Carolina’s early voting period begins on October 17, with the general election itself on November 5.
With just over five months until Election Day, analysts from a nationally known, nonpartisan newsletter are coordinating their assessments of North Carolina’s most closely watched race.
The Cook Political Report is now rating the gubernatorial race between Democrat Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson as a “close race.” It was previously rated a “Democrat edge.”
Jessica Taylor, CPR’s editor for Senate and Governor coverage, said CPR initially rated the race this way because of past success of Democratic gubernatorial candidates in North Carolina and because Robinson’s past comments about women, the LGBTQ+ community and the Holocaust likely alienated swing voters. But with her fundraising continuing to thrive and President Joe Biden’s approval rating in North Carolina remaining weak, she believes this could be one of the closest gubernatorial races in the country.
“If Trump wins (North Carolina) by a high single-digit percentage, I think it will be much harder mathematically for Democrats to get that far. I think that’s Josh Stein’s biggest problem right now,” Taylor said.
A nonpartisan poll conducted by CPR found the two parties tied at 37 points, but Taylor said that suggests a large percentage of people are still undecided. He thinks many of those voters simply aren’t paying attention to the election, and with the summer vacation season upon us, they may not pay attention for a few more months.
“My boss, Amy Walter, says this is like a Green Day election: ‘Keep me up ’til the end of September,’ so for me, it’s going to be interesting to see what the polls are like after that. I think more and more voters will be tuning in on Labor Day, and I think it’s also a result of the fact that we have two very unpopular candidates for president,” Taylor said.
Despite the unfavorable trend in CPR’s ratings, Taylor still sees some bright spots for Stein’s campaign: Their research shows Stein is doing well among voters willing to split their vote, as well as unaffiliated female voters, one of the most important demographics in the gubernatorial race.
According to CPR, Stein has an 11-point lead among independent women and a 31-point lead among college-educated independent women.
With the economy being the biggest issue for voters right now, Robinson said her oratory skills and ability to connect with voters through her humble upbringing will help her in the coming months.
North Carolina’s early voting period begins on October 17th, with the general election itself on November 5th.
