Could China have taken Taiwan without invading?

CNN
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A leading think tank has warned that Chinese forces could isolate Taiwan, cripple its economy and force the democratic island to bow to the will of Beijing’s Communist party without firing a shot.

Concerns that the Chinese Communist Party will follow through on its promise to one day seize control of Taiwan, by force if necessary, have grown in recent years as Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted increasingly belligerent behavior toward the island.

These concerns have been further intensified by China’s refusal to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In such a scenario, analysts and military strategists have long focused on two main options available to China: full-scale invasion or military blockade.

But the Washington think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) warns there is a third approach that would be much harder for the United States and like-minded democracies to counter: isolation.

Using “gray zone” tactics just short of what could be considered an act of war, the China Coast Guard, the so-called maritime militia, and various police and coast guard agencies could launch a full or partial quarantine of Taiwan, cut off access to Taiwan’s ports and prevent vital supplies such as energy from reaching Taiwan’s 23 million residents, according to a new CSIS report.

The naval, air force and ground forces of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the world’s largest military force, may only be playing a supporting and supporting role, write authors Bonnie Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew Funaiall, Samantha Lu and Truly Tinsley.

“China has significantly increased pressure on Taiwan in recent years, stoking concerns that tensions could escalate into all-out conflict. While much attention has been focused on the threat of invasion, Beijing has options other than invasion, including coercing, punishing or annexing Taiwan,” the report said.

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Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue Defence Summit in Singapore earlier this month, Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun warned that anyone supporting any move towards Taiwan independence would “end up self-destructing”.

“We will take resolute action to thwart Taiwan independence and ensure that such plots never succeed,” Dong said through an interpreter, accusing “external interference forces” of selling arms to Taiwan and having “illegal official contacts”.

This week, a China Coast Guard vessel collided with a Philippine Navy vessel in the South China Sea, highlighting China’s escalating grey zone tactics.

Video footage showed Chinese troops threatening Filipinos with axes and other bladed weapons, and the Manila government said one soldier lost a thumb in the Chinese-instigated clashes.

The level of violence was a significant increase from previous clashes near Second Thomas Shoal, where the Philippines is based on a stranded warship in waters claimed by both Beijing and Manila.

Similarly, Beijing’s military and economic threats against Taiwan, which has a highly developed free-market economy, have become much more pronounced under Xi Jinping’s administration.

China’s Communist Party claims the island as its own despite never having controlled it and has vowed to “reunify” it, by force if necessary.

But the CSIS report said Beijing has strong options not only to keep the People’s Liberation Army out of the fight, but also to position Taiwan’s democratic nations and their supporters, such as the United States, as initiators of military conflict in order to protect Taiwan’s autonomy.

The report noted that the China Coast Guard, like most coast guards around the world, is considered a law enforcement agency, meaning it can stop or restrict ships from sailing around the island, a quarantine measure that is different from a blockade.

“A quarantine is a law enforcement-led operation to control maritime or air traffic within a particular area, while a blockade is primarily military in nature,” the report said.

Experts say the blockade is considered an act of war under international law.

“The China Coast Guard-led quarantine measures are not a declaration of war against Taiwan,” the report said, but they would put the United States in a difficult position, the authors warned.

Washington is legally obligated under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself and has supplied Taiwan with defensive weapons.

U.S. President Joe Biden has repeatedly said he would go beyond legal requirements and use U.S. military forces to defend Taiwan, and the warning appeared to be a departure from Washington’s previous position of “strategic ambiguity” which White House officials walked back.

But if U.S. military ships or aircraft were to intervene in what China claims are law enforcement activities, it could be seen as the United States initiating military hostilities.

The report said the China Coast Guard has the world’s largest fleet, with 150 ocean-going vessels and 400 smaller ships, including the People’s Liberation Army Navy. Beijing has hundreds more vessels affiliated with the Japan Coast Guard and maritime militia, and fishing boats are integrated into China’s military and law enforcement agencies.

Taiwan’s coast guard has only 10 ocean-going vessels and about 160 smaller boats, according to the report, and lacks the manpower to carry out pushback quarantine operations.

The CSIS authors note that any quarantine measures taken by Beijing may be quite limited, but would still have the effect of economically strangling Taiwan: Few businesses will want to face the possibility of having their assets seized by Chinese authorities, and may voluntarily cease providing services to Taiwan.

“China’s willingness to search and seize a handful of merchant vessels could have a significant deterrent effect and deter similar illegal activities,” the report said.

According to the report, the limited search and seizure measures are affecting flights to Taiwan as quarantine measures could easily be extended to air travel.

The report said warnings of just a handful of Chinese aircraft flights would be enough to have a deterrent effect on all traffic.

China regularly flies military aircraft around Taiwan, sometimes dozens a day, and 36 Chinese military aircraft crossed Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in the 24 hours ending at 6 a.m. on Friday, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

A quarantine rather than a blockade, on the other hand, would not require China to close the Taiwan Strait or restrict access, the CSIS report noted, meaning Washington and its allies could lose one of its biggest claims to intervention under international law: protecting freedom of navigation in international waterways.

“If the quarantine measures are framed as law enforcement activities, China can easily announce the end of the operation and claim that its objectives have been achieved,” the report said.

To make matters even more modest, China may not even need to use the word “quarantine” to launch a campaign to isolate Taiwan, the authors say.

Beijing claims Taiwan as Chinese territory and could require ships to submit customs declarations before calling at Taiwan, with enforcement mechanisms potentially exerting a deterrent effect on all shipping if ships do not comply.

“Chinese law enforcement vessels will be authorized to board ships, conduct on-site inspections, question personnel, and take other measures against non-compliant vessels,” the report said.

The idea would allow China only a limited scope of operations — for example, it could target only Kaohsiung, Taiwan’s busiest port, which handles 57 percent of Taiwan’s seaborne imports and most of its energy imports, the study said.

Outside analysts who reviewed the CSIS report and spoke to CNN thought that was plausible, but they also had serious doubts about how events might play out.

Others noted that economic conditions are not necessarily in Beijing’s favor.

“Maintaining isolation would be costly and time-consuming,” said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at U.S. Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.

“Taipei is not going to give up within 60 days,” Schuster argues. “Can Beijing sustain its efforts, and the international response, for that long?”

Experts warn that any move to upend the status quo in the Taiwan Strait could further undermine Beijing’s foreign trade.

Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy at King’s College London, noted the challenges the Communist Party already faces: China’s economy is struggling to recover from the coronavirus quarantine, growth has plummeted and new trade restrictions have been imposed, including tariffs on electric vehicle exports.

Taiwan is a prominent industrial economy and a key hub in the global supply chain, producing most of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. The imposition of quarantine measures in Taiwan would have economic repercussions not only domestically but globally.

While most countries diplomatically recognise China rather than Taiwan, Taiwan has increasingly strong informal ties with major Western democracies that have deepened in recent years as threats from Beijing have grown.

Taiwan and China are also deeply intertwined economically: 35 percent of Taiwan’s exports went to mainland China last year, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, mostly in integrated circuits, solar cells and electronic components.

In the same year, imports from mainland China accounted for 20 percent of Taiwan’s total imports. According to Taiwan government statistics, between 1991 and 2022, Taiwanese companies invested a total of $203 billion in mainland China, creating millions of jobs in China.

What’s more, quarantine measures could rally people together with their government rather than against it, says Siddharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at the Royal Military Institute in London.

“Historical evidence suggests that even tough lockdowns have limited enforcement power, and that limited quarantines can lead to rallying around the flag,” he says.

Kaushal warned that the quarantine could also pressure Taiwan’s government to declare independence, something China has repeatedly said would likely lead to armed conflict.

“That would leave (the Communist Party) with only a choice between escalating tensions or a major setback,” he said.

Patalano said patience is key for China to achieve its goal of “unification.”

Escalation, and therefore aggression, is “not cost-effective,” he says. War costs not only human lives but also national wealth.