The sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, a prominent Iranian politician, has significant implications for the country, the entire West Asian region, and global politics. Raisi’s presidency, characterized by hardline domestic and foreign policy positions, has left a complex legacy and created a power vacuum that could bring about major changes in the geopolitical situation.
Raisi died suddenly in a helicopter crash during a tour of Khuzestan province, now believed to have been caused by serious mechanical failure. The crash killed Raisi and several other senior officials. The Iranian government expressed national mourning and launched an investigation. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for unity to ensure a smooth transition of power. This tragic incident has intensified the political atmosphere in Iran, with factions competing for influence and setting the stage for significant national, regional and global implications.
President Raisi’s tenure was marked by his staunch conservatism and determination to uphold the foundational principles of the Islamic Republic. His death triggered a period of political instability in Iran, with different factions within the government and religious establishment vying for power. The immediate challenge is to select a successor who can maintain the delicate balance between the country’s various political and religious interests.
Raisi’s government was focused on resolving economic difficulties exacerbated by international sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic. His economic policies aimed to combat a 50% inflation rate and reduce unemployment, which stood at about 11% in 2022.
However, his death could disrupt ongoing economic policies and reforms, leading to increased public discontent and social unrest. Iran’s domestic political stability will depend on how effectively the transition of power is managed and whether a consensus candidate emerges to unify the country’s diverse political landscape.
In West Asia, Raisi’s death has far-reaching implications. Iran plays a key role in regional politics, particularly in its relations with its neighbors and its influence over various non-state actors and militias. Raisi’s government was known for its active regional policies, including support for its allies in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
The power vacuum created by Raisi’s death could prompt regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Israel to reassess their strategies toward Iran. The possibility of increased tensions and proxy wars cannot be discounted, as these countries may seek to exploit Iran’s weaknesses. Moreover, Iranian instability could affect the dynamics of ongoing conflicts in the region, shifting the balance of power and leading to new coalitions and alliances.
For example, Iran’s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen has become a key factor in the regional power struggle. A shift in Iran’s foreign policy direction could affect these groups’ operational capabilities and strategies. According to a 2021 report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Iran’s military spending is approximately $15 billion, reflecting a significant investment in its regional influence.
On the international stage, President Raisi’s death is likely to affect international relations and the geopolitical chessboard. Under his leadership, Iran has maintained a confrontational relationship with the West, especially the United States, over issues such as the JCPOA and regional security. President Raisi’s death suggests that Iran’s foreign policy may shift depending on who succeeds him.
A more moderate or pragmatic leader could emerge, leading to renewed efforts to revive the nuclear deal and engage in diplomacy with the West, which could lead to sanctions relief, improving Iran’s economic situation, and stabilizing the region. Conversely, a hardliner like Raisi coming to power would likely perpetuate the status quo of conflict and distrust with the West, and continue geopolitical tensions.
The economic impact of sanctions on Iran has been severe, causing Iran’s gross domestic product (GDP) to fall 6.8% in 2019 and remain sluggish. The World Bank reported that Iran’s GDP grew by just 3.1% in 2021 due to ongoing sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic. The leadership change could either exacerbate these economic challenges or pave the way for a gradual recovery through renewed international engagement.
Raisi’s death will also have implications for Iran’s relations with world powers such as Russia and China. Both countries have strategic partnerships with Iran, and the nature of their relationship could change depending on the foreign policy direction of the new leadership. For example, in 2021, Iran and China signed a 25-year cooperation agreement worth $400 billion, highlighting the strategic importance of bilateral relations. The world’s reaction to the Iranian regime transition will be closely watched as major powers evaluate their strategies in light of the new leadership.
Raisi’s death also has significant implications for India, given its strategic interests and historical ties with Iran. India has invested heavily in the Chabahar port, which is vital for accessing Afghanistan and Central Asian markets, bypassing Pakistan. Political instability in Iran could disrupt these projects and affect India’s trade routes. Moreover, India imports a significant portion of its crude oil from Iran. Despite sanctions, India has sought to maintain a balanced relationship with Iran, which is crucial for its energy security. Raisi’s death could lead to a reassessment of these relationships, especially if a new leadership takes a different stance on foreign investments and partnerships. Moreover, geopolitical shifts in West Asia could impact India’s regional strategy, requiring diplomatic agility to navigate the changing situation.
Raisi’s death marks a pivotal moment for Iran, West Asia, and world politics. Domestically, it usher in a period of uncertainty and potential instability as Iran navigates a transition of power. Regionally, the balance of power and influence may shift, impacting ongoing conflicts and confrontations. Globally, the future of Iran’s foreign policy and engagement with major powers is at stake, potentially resulting in changes to diplomatic and economic relations. As the world waits to see how Iran navigates this transition, the broader implications for regional stability and international relations will become clear. Raisi’s death is not just a domestic event, it is a critical moment that could fundamentally change the geopolitical landscape.
The article was written by Ananya Raj Kakoti and Gunwant Singh, international relations scholars at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.
