MILWAUKEE — Hours after an attempted assassin put a bullet in former President Donald Trump’s ear, Panfilo DiCenzo, a 40-year-old Democrat from Pittsburgh, offered a simple conclusion about the political impact of the attack: “This is definitely a good thing for Trump.”
DiCenzo reasoned that undecided voters might be “more likely to vote for him out of sympathy” and that “I think that especially with all the turmoil within the Democratic Party, there are more people who are a little confused about who they should be voting for.”
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With President Joe Biden struggling to solidify support from his Democratic colleagues after a dismal performance and shaky cleanup at a June debate, some professional Democratic political activists say Saturday’s shooting could determine the incumbent president’s electoral fate.
“We’re in such a bad mood,” said a longtime Democratic official, noting that the image of Trump with blood smeared all over his face and pumping his fist will be unforgettable.
“The presidential election ended last night,” said a veteran Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to provide an honest assessment of where his party stands with less than four months to go until the election.
“Now is the time to focus on keeping the Senate and taking back the House,” he said. “The only good thing that happened last night for Democrats is that we no longer talk about Joe Biden’s age.”
A Biden campaign spokesman did not respond to NBC News’ request for comment on how the assassination attempt on Trump might affect the rematch, and a White House spokesman declined to comment.
But in nearly a dozen interviews with Democratic strategists, activists, aides and voters, there was a clear divide between Democrats who think an assassination attempt would ultimately help Trump and those who say it wouldn’t make much of a difference. Few suggested it would improve Biden’s chances of winning.
Cornell Belcher, a pollster who worked for former President Barack Obama, said neither the shooting nor the debates are likely to ultimately reshape what has always been a close race, especially among swing voters who are key in deciding states.
“Does a moderate, college-educated mother living in the suburbs, who is worried about how she’s going to pay for her daughter’s college and whether she’s going to have the same rights in life as she did, take a mass shooting and go, ‘Oh my God! I’m going to vote for Trump!’ No,” he said.
By physically targeting Trump, Biden would lose his main argument against the former president, said a Democratic strategist who worked on multiple presidential campaigns and on Capitol Hill, who noted that Biden has sought to convince voters that Trump is too extreme and poses a threat to democracy.
“That message is dead,” the strategist said after a gunman tried to kill both major party nominees. The bullet that struck Trump froze Democratic calls for him to resign and “probably saved Biden’s nomination” but “destroyed his reelection.”
Adam Green, co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, echoed similar sentiments.
“I am very concerned that the overall effect of the Republican Convention will be to neutralize our core democratic criticism of Trump, a felon who has incited a violent insurrection, sought to thwart the peaceful transfer of power, and said we may need to abolish the Constitution,” he said.
“There’s a race to define what constitutes legitimate criticism of democracy against Trump,” Greene added. “We all need to be clear now that defending democracy is the exact opposite of political violence.”
Many of those who question whether President Trump will ultimately gain politically from the assassination attempt on him and the response to it argued that their views are counterintuitive, or at least at odds with most of the Democrats around them.
One Biden ally said a close result for Trump would further solidify his base without winning any new voters. Biden has responded to turbulent times with steady leadership, he said, adding that he predicted he would end his campaign pause at the Republican National Convention this week.
Another veteran Democratic strategist said his first impression was that the shooting would benefit Trump, but he had second thoughts.
“The idea that, politically, this is going to help Trump is wrong. I think this is going to remind them that Trump is a disruptor,” the strategist said. “Now is the time we need someone to unite us.”
He added that he believes Republicans would take a political risk if convention speakers repeated Trump’s past calls for retaliation rather than tone it down.
One Democratic official and former senior presidential campaign adviser predicted that Trump will “immediately gain a slight advantage” among certain demographic groups, “but fundamentally, I think the race will remain the same as it’s always been. And, believe it or not, there’s still a long way to go.”
The agent said, “Many people on my side, [Biden] “We cannot win,” he said, calling the view an “atmospheric analysis” with no “rational basis.”
Polls suggest the election will be close with battleground states likely to give either candidate a majority in the Electoral College.
A Trump spokesman did not respond to a request for comment from NBC News about whether the Trump campaign was considering the assassination attempt a campaign weapon. But Trump used an already iconic photo of himself surrounded by bodyguards and with his fist raised in the air in a fundraising appeal on Sunday. A black-and-white version of the photo used to solicit donations features a full-color American flag in the background. The words “Never Surrender” are emblazoned across the top of the photo.
For a veteran of Democratic congressional campaigns, the photo says it all.
“The clear impact of this assassination attempt is that it has officially removed Donald Trump from politics and reduced him to martyrdom,” the person said. “The fact that they are framing this as an attack on MAGA, rather than Trump, makes it even more powerful. This is a biblical story.”
Democrats “will never be able to match the level of enthusiasm among their base voters,” the source added, “which is why we’re even more weary of Biden. … And hoping that Trump will be an inspiring and unifying opponent is just not going to work.”
