Sabah State Elections 2024: India VIX, also known as India Volatility Index, is a measure of short-term market volatility prediction. India’s volatility index continued its upward trend after hitting a new 52-week high on Tuesday, hitting an intraday high of 20.58. India’s VIX index rose 65% in a month while rising to an intraday high. The continuous increase in India VIX index from 10.20 mark (April 23, 2024) to 20.58 today raises doubts whether the rise in India VIX index signals an upward trend for the Bharatiya Janata Party. is in the minds of stock market observers. Victory in Lok Sabha elections. A section of the market believes that the rise in the India VIX index does not detract from the BJP’s victory, but means it will fall short of the number of seats it and its allies claim.
Stock market experts say India’s VIX index is rising not because of uncertainty over how many seats the ruling coalition led by the Bharatiya Janata Party will win. Factors such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising U.S. bond yields are also playing their part in increasing the volatility index. The rise in the India VIX index in the past 20 days has signaled to market investors that a single BJP seat below 300 would mean a big blow to the Indian stock market and that there could be a strong sell-off after unlocking. They said it should be seen as a signal. If the Bharatiya Janata Party’s seats fall below 300 after the announcement of the Sabah election results scheduled for June 4, 2024, the state will become Sabah.
Rajesh Sinha, senior research analyst at Bonanza Portfolio, points out that from a historical perspective, the current movement in the India VIX index is not unique to this election cycle. He recalled that India’s VIX index soared to a high of 39.30 during the 2014 Sabah elections and was close to the 30 mark in the 2019 Sabah polls. Sinha suggests that the rise in VIX should not be interpreted as a trend against the NDA alliance’s overwhelming majority.
It is important to note that the rise in the India VIX index does not simply indicate the number of seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party. This diversity of expert opinion highlights the complexity of the situation and the need for careful analysis and consideration. This is a reminder that market trends are influenced by a large number of factors, and a comprehensive understanding is key to making informed investment decisions.
What does the India VIX index indicate?
Commenting on the relationship between today’s rise in India VIX and the Indian stock market, Manish Chowdhury, head of research at Stockbox, said, “The rise in VIX is a culmination of two factors, indicating an increase in future volatility. “First and foremost is the market.” It seems increasingly likely that the ruling government will have fewer seats (albeit a majority) than expected at the start of the general election, and furthermore, quarterly results to date have been largely uninspiring, leading to market-induced valuations. Investors are becoming increasingly nervous. In general, we expect volatility to increase in the lead-up to the election, especially in the small- and mid-cap markets, with market participants closely monitoring voter turnout to gauge the future direction. ”
How many seats can the BJP win?
Commenting on how this rise in the India VIX index relates to the likely outcome of the Lok Sabha election, Amit Goel, co-founder and chief global strategist at Pace 360, says, The ruling coalition appears to have lost some momentum.The Bharatiya Janata Party now expects to secure between 280 and 300 seats on a standalone basis, forcing the government to slow its pace of reforms and further populism. It will be negative for Indian stocks as they will have to rely on the index. Anything above 300 will be considered positive for the Indian market.”
“We argue that Indian stocks are overvalued and the potential downside from a negative outcome is much greater than the potential upside from a positive outcome. The move is very similar to the time frame just before the announcement of India’s Lok Sabha election results.”After the market fell from its March peak, the VIX rose to 28.6,” PAce 360 expert said. the house added.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or brokerages and not of Mint. Because market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary, investors are strongly encouraged to consult a certified professional before making any investment decisions.
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