Domestic power sources cushion LNG supply risk, Leghari says

Pakistan’s growing reliance on domestic power, ​including solar and wind energy, nuclear reactors, coal, and hydropower, has reduced its vulnerability to global LNG supply disruption, Power Minister Awais ‌Leghari told Reuters.

The war in the Middle East threatens shipments from Qatar, the world’s No 2 producer after the US, which supplies most of Pakistan’s imported LNG, used to fuel power plants during peak electricity demand.

“Pakistan has been steadily increasing its reliance on indigenous energy resources, and about 74% of our electricity generation now comes from local sources,” Leghari said, adding the ​government aims to raise that above 96% by 2034.

The figures have not been previously reported. “The people-led solar revolution, and earlier decisions to invest ​in nuclear, hydropower, and local coal have all played a role in increasing Pakistan’s self-reliance,” he added.

Pakistan has long struggled ⁠with electricity shortages and historically faced hours of daily load shedding during peak summer demand.

The country now has surplus generation capacity after adding coal, ​LNG, and nuclear plants, while demand growth has slowed and the use of rooftop solar has surged, at times exceeding grid demand in some hubs.

Outages still occur in ​parts of the country due to theft, line losses, and financial constraints, rather than a lack of power.

‘Worst-case scenario’

Qatar halted LNG production earlier this month, and Asian nations, who buy 80% of its output, are scrambling to meet the shortage.

LNG now accounts for about 10% of Pakistan’s electricity generation, mainly used to meet evening demand peaks and stabilise ​the grid, Leghari said.

Column chart showing a decline in LNG power generation in Pakistan between FY 2020-21 to FY 2024-25 Source: Pakistan’s Power Ministry estimates. PHOTO: REUTERS

During the global energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the country was forced to cut power for extended ​periods after failing to secure LNG cargoes on the spot market.

“Even if LNG was disrupted or became too expensive, the impact on production capacity, industry, or agriculture would ‌be minimal,” ⁠Leghari said.

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But he said prolonged disruptions could still lead to additional shortages during summer, when demand surges from the use of air-conditioners. “In a worst-case scenario, if LNG cargoes stopped for several months, Pakistan might see one to two hours of load shedding during peak summer evenings,” Leghari said,

Such outages would likely affect some urban and rural areas, not industry or agriculture, he said, adding Pakistan is developing battery storage to shift excess daytime solar to evening ​peaks.

The government cancelled 21 LNG cargoes due in 2026-27 ​under a long-term deal with ⁠Italy’s Eni as domestic power and solar growth cut gas demand.

Local and green

“Pakistan is not expected to invest in any source of power that could put it at risk in terms of energy security,” Leghari said, saying the government’s ​plans for the next six to eight years is to focus on indigenous clean power.

About 55% of electricity ​generation now comes from ⁠clean sources, which the government aims to raise above 90% by 2034, Leghari said.

Read more: Prioritising domestic energy supply

Hydropower produces about 40 terawatt hours of electricity annually, while nuclear generates roughly 22 TWh and domestic coal about 12 TWh, according to the minister, forming a significant share of Pakistan’s electricity supply without relying on imported fuel.

Rooftop solar installations ⁠have surged ​to more than 20 GW across Pakistan, with behind-the-meter capacity estimated at 12–14 GW and ​possibly up to 18 GW, sharply reducing daytime grid demand, he said.

Hydropower output also rises in summer as river flows increase, adding up to 7,000 megawatts of capacity and helping meet ​higher electricity demand from air-conditioning.