Donald Trump was the luckiest man alive last Thursday. President Joe Biden’s terrible debate performance overshadowed what should have been the biggest story of the night: Trump winkingly encouraged his supporters to commit political violence, just as he did in the 2020 presidential debates. Biden correctly pointed out during the debate that Trump had promised to pardon more than 1,200 people charged with federal crimes in the January 6th riot. Trump responded by calling the rioters “innocent” and saying Biden should be “ashamed” because the Justice Department prosecuted them for crimes. This coincides with Trump’s increasingly vehement defense of the rioters during the campaign, calling them “hostages” and “political prisoners,” and holding ceremonies to honor those who were incarcerated.
Trump’s praise of the riots is not because he’s a narcissist who never admits he’s done anything wrong. It’s part of a larger campaign to encourage political violence by his supporters. Trump frequently uses “warnings” to intimidate public officials. Using these false warnings, Trump has threatened that there will be “a lot of mayhem” if he is indicted. He implored his followers to “go after” New York Attorney General Letitia James, who indicted him for fraud. He posted a video in which he fantasized about kidnapping Biden. He threatened “death and destruction” if he is indicted in the New York “hush money” case. He even held a rally in Waco, Texas, on the anniversary of the self-immolation of a Branch Davidian, a blatant dog whistle to far-right militias who use the incident to justify anti-government violence.
“Many will view this as a complete victory and will be prepared to take comfort that they will not be prosecuted for future violence.”
But so far, Trump’s open desire for more mob violence has not led to much. During his Manhattan criminal trial, in which he was convicted of 34 felony counts, Trump’s desperate desire to revive January 6th reached a fever pitch. His appeals to his supporters to “come together” on social media and in front of cameras (an almost code-like gesture after the Capitol storming) were ineffective. There are many reasons for this, but the main one is the widespread fear of going to prison among right-wing extremists. With hundreds of their allies now behind bars for the riots, that fear is more real now.
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Whenever Trump or his supporters call for a “rally” to intimidate public officials, MAGA social media flies with conspiracy theories claiming it’s a “trap” by the FBI or “Antifa.” No matter how much anyone believes this, it’s clear what they’re doing: trying to create a face-saving excuse to avoid the risk of going to jail. No matter how much Trump praises the January 6 rioters, their fate has long stood as a warning to other members of MAGA of what could happen if they resort to further violence in Trump’s name.
At least that was the case until Friday, when the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the January 6 defendants in Fisher v. United States, who had argued they were wrongly convicted under a law that criminalizes obstruction of official business. As Amy Howe of SCOTUSblog explained, the court ruled that the law “only applies to tampering with evidence, such as the destruction of records or documents in the course of official business.”
The verdict was followed by headlines that sounded like a major victory for the January 6 rioters. Words like “defeat” and “falsely accused” appeared frequently in the headlines. Sure, headline writers tried to soften the blow with words like “some” and “limited scope.” But those qualifiers will mean little to those living in the alternate reality created by the MAGA media. For years, they’ve been told by Trump, Republican politicians, and commentators like Tucker Carlson that they were badly treated by the Biden Justice Department. Many will be ready to summarise this as a total victory and take comfort that they will not be prosecuted for future violence.
Legal experts were quick to explain that the sentence was narrow and would not do much to change the fate of the more than 1,200 people charged with the riot. That includes Trump, whose “fake electors” scheme in his indictment seems to fall outside the narrow scope of the sentence because his conspiracy was paper-centric. JustSecurity’s analysis showed that with only minor tweaks to the case, prosecutors could have sustained their original charges. More importantly, the legal analysts wrote, “only 26 of these defendants have been (or will be) sentenced on this charge alone.” They also provide a helpful pie chart:
This will no doubt come as a relief to prosecutors and those nerdy enough to pay attention to these little legal details. The message it sent to MAGA was quite different, as MAGA is not a group blessed with the patience or understanding to understand such nuanced legal analysis. Instead, the MAGA world moved to declare victory and complete innocence.
In a vacuum, this might be considered a minor boast. But it is happening in a context where threatening rhetoric and the normalization of political violence extend far beyond Trump and across the Republican Party. “Extremism watchdogs have warned for years that Trump’s incendiary rhetoric has inspired real-world attacks, and attackers have invoked his name in dozens of violent incidents,” The Washington Post reported last week. Just this month, Shelby Bush, first vice chair of the Maricopa County Republican Committee, was caught on video threatening to “lynch” an election official who correctly recorded vote counts that went against Republicans. A growing number of candidates are threatening to “jail” anyone who opposes Trump. Some, like House candidate Anthony Sabatini (R-FL), are running paid ads with the threat.
Last week, Attorney General Merrick Garland issued a new warning about rising threats of violence against government employees, telling The Washington Post that “threats of violence targeted at any public servant are abhorrent.” The paper cited several recent and chilling examples, including a man who threatened to kill an FBI agent if Trump loses in November, and another who threatened to kill Montana Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and his entire family.
All this was before the Supreme Court ruled broadly invalidating charges against the January 6 rioters. As we learned in the days following the riot, many (or even most) of the rioters were operating under the belief that people like them would never be held legally responsible for political violence. That’s why they filmed themselves during the riot and uploaded all the photo evidence that was used in many of the convictions. A big part of Trump’s appeal to his supporters is the sense of impunity he exudes, where someone is a criminal based on who they are, not what they do. Many MAGAs believe that their white skin and right-wing politics should exempt them from punishment. Whatever the Supreme Court’s decision says, we shouldn’t be surprised if Trump supporters interpret it as an invitation to further political violence.
