new york – Former President Donald Trump The 2024 presidential campaign is entering uncharted territory: Voters’ reaction to the first major party candidate to be convicted of a crime.
Trump must still convince the public he is fit for a second term after a New York jury convicted him of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records as part of a scheme to influence the 2016 presidential election.
While the challenge is unprecedented, Trump’s approach is all too familiar: attacking the legal system.
“This has been a rigged decision from day one,” Trump told reporters at the courthouse on Thursday, less than an hour after he was convicted, repeating rhetoric previously used by Republicans to alarm voters about the possibility of a conviction.
Those efforts are expected to continue now that a jury has convicted the former president, while supporters of President Joe Biden are likely to argue that the unprecedented verdict proves Trump is unfit to serve another four years in office.
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Indeed, the Trump campaign sent out a series of fundraising solicitations within minutes of the verdict: “I am a political prisoner!” Trump told potential donors.
More meetings, more fundraisers
So what happens after Trump’s historic conviction?
The sentence is scheduled to be handed down on July 11, just four days before the start of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where Trump is scheduled to accept the GOP presidential nomination.
The impending decision is not expected to block the former president and his campaign from holding rallies and fundraising events, nor will it give judges and prosecutors more opportunity to allege political manipulation in the hush-money case.
Trump is also preparing for several big events, including a CNN-hosted debate with Biden in Atlanta on June 27, and the selection of his running mate. The former president has said he will probably announce his nominee at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee from July 15-18.
Meanwhile, pollsters working with Trump and Biden will be scouring the data to gauge how voters will react to the first conviction of a former president and current presidential candidate.
One thing Trump likely won’t have to worry about anytime soon is prison: He plans to appeal his sentence, a process that could take years.
Target: Independents
The upcoming election campaign will be aimed at a relatively small group of voters – independents who are undecided between Trump and Biden.
Campaign officials and independent pollsters have said for months that the ruling will not affect Trump supporters or staunch Biden supporters.
What about other people? Who knows how they’d react to a convicted felon running for president. After all, it’s never happened.
But even if just a small percentage of people turn away from Trump, it could make a difference in battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
At the same time, Trump suggested a guilty verdict could work to his advantage because “the public sees this as a corrupt deal.”
Although the outcome is still pending, the trial itself does not appear to have dealt a major blow to Trump: The former president has a slight lead over Biden in many national polls and battleground states, but most of those leads are within the margin of error.
During his six-week trial, Trump was able to campaign and raise funds on Wednesdays, court holidays and weekends. Now he will campaign almost every day, starting with a news conference he plans for Friday in the tower that bears his name in midtown Manhattan.
Biden’s campaign enters a new phase
Trump will also have to contend with a more aggressive Biden team eager to run against a convicted former president.
Throughout the trial, Biden campaign officials have said they do not intend to focus solely on a guilty verdict, but on the full range of charges against Trump.
Former President Trump has been charged with three other criminal counts, including two counts of conspiring to steal the 2020 presidential election. In a civil lawsuit, Trump was convicted of bank fraud and sexual abuse.
Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler said Trump’s conviction proves “no one is above the law,” but the election will be decided on issues such as the former president’s threats “to be a dictator from day one” and his willingness to promote authoritarianism and violence.
“There remains only one way to keep Donald Trump from the Oval Office: the ballot box,” Tyler said. “Whether or not he is convicted, Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. Trump poses more of a threat to our democracy than he has ever posed.”
One thing is clear: Trump and Biden’s post-conviction strategies will be put to the test this summer as both candidates seek second terms.
Sarah Longwell, who has conducted many focus groups as founder of the Republican anti-Trump voters organization, predicted the ruling “is not going to be a game changer.” But she said it could still have a significant impact.
“In an election where inches matter, this just creates another barrier for the undecided swing vote to vote for a convicted felon,” she said.
Further challenges? Who knows.
Another unknown is whether Trump will face another trial before Election Day on November 5.
The former president is facing federal criminal charges in Washington for trying to steal the 2020 election from Biden, but the trial was delayed after the Supreme Court agreed to hear Trump’s argument for immunity from prosecution for presidential actions.
The court is expected to rule in early July, and if it rules against Trump, the case could be tried before Election Day, possibly in the middle of the fall campaign season.
If the ruling goes in Trump’s favor, the trial will almost certainly be postponed until after Election Day.
No trial dates have been set for the South Florida federal trial over allegations that former President Trump mishandled classified information and obstructed justice, or in his trial for allegedly targeting the 2020 election results in Georgia.
