DoorDash, Duolingo show Wall Street doesn’t love AI spending equally

Across the tech sector this earnings season, companies told Wall Street to get ready for ramped up spending as the artificial intelligence boom accelerates.

But while investors largely rewarded the megacaps for their boosted capital expenditure forecasts, or just shrugged off their guidance, companies outside the trillion-dollar club are getting punished.

DoorDash, Duolingo and Roblox all saw their stock prices suffer double-digit slumps last week after the companies said spending is on the incline, raising concerns about future profitability. Unlike the tech giants, which are promising hefty buildouts to meet soaring demand for AI services and workloads, smaller companies are getting viewed more skeptically, with analysts uncertain about whether their bets will pay off and result in substantial new revenue opportunities.

“Investors don’t like investment cycles,” Evercore ISI’s Mark Mahaney told CNBC’s “Closing Bell: Overtime” last week. That’s what happened, he said, with “all those companies that went into and out of this earnings cycle and negatively surprised the market by saying, ‘We really want to lean into investments first.'”

DoorDash’s stock sank 17% on Thursday, its worst drop in the food delivery platform’s five years as a public company. In its third-quarter earnings report, DoorDash said it plans to shell out “several hundred million dollars” on new products and technology next year.

“We wish there was a way to grow a baby into an adult without investment, or to see the baby grow into an adult overnight, but we do not believe this is how life or business works,” the company wrote in its earnings release.

DoorDash has recently amped up investments in autonomous delivery, with the launch of Dot in September, and spent a combined $5.1 billion on restaurant booking platform SevenRooms and British food delivery service Deliveroo.

CEO Tony Xu said on the earnings call that the company’s investment track record signals “some success in repeating this playbook, and we’re doing this now for future growth.”

Analysts see it differently.

“Looking ahead, we maintain our Hold rating as we see limited multiple expansion opportunity until there is greater clarity surrounding how long investments could weigh on margins,” wrote analysts at Gordon Haskett.

A DoorDash spokesperson said in a statement that the company is “fortunate to have an increasingly successful core business” and that it takes a “disciplined investment approach” to new projects.

Duolingo also had its worst day as a public company on Thursday, despite beating on revenue and bookings in its third-quarter earnings report.

The stock lost a quarter of its value and is now down 41% for the year, after Duolingo said it’s prioritizing finding new users. The company has been pouring money into AI features, such as an interactive video call option, as it tries to win over paying subscribers.

“There are experiments that put monetization and user growth at odds, and part of my job has been, always, arbitrating between these two,” CEO Luis von Ahn told CNBC after the earnings report. He said the company is shifting the “trade off to be much more towards user growth.”

On the earnings call, von Ahn said that it’s “going to take some time for us to see the results, financial results, over the long-term investments that we’re doing.”

After the report, analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the stock to the equivalent of hold from buy, citing concerns that increased investments will weigh on near-term bookings, earnings and valuation.

“This suggests to us that it might take several quarters to see more meaningful financial benefits,” the firm said.

Duolingo didn’t provide a comment.

Meanwhile, the biggest companies in the tech industry may similarly be years away from seeing if their big AI wagers result in profits. But investors aren’t terribly concerned.

Alphabet and Amazon both rallied after reporting earnings in late October. The companies again raised their forecasts for capital expenditures for the year and suggested that there’s no slowdown coming in 2026.

Amazon Web Services is the leading provider of cloud infrastructure, a market where Google is third, and is racing to build out data centers to meet expected demand for compute capacity tied to AI. AWS and Google are also investing in their own silicon so that they’re less dependent on Nvidia and can offer customers a more complete tech stack.

Microsoft, which is second in the cloud infrastructure market, slipped after its earnings report, which also included a guide to higher capex. But the company, valued at close to $4 trillion, still mostly has the backing of Wall Street as it competes for more AI deals and bigger workloads.

The exception among the megacaps is Meta, which sank 11% following earnings. The company expects to spend as much as $72 billion this year on capex, but doesn’t sell a cloud service that rivals Amazon, Google and Microsoft.

While Meta says it’s infusing AI across its product portfolio and improving targeting in its core ad business, the lack of clarity surrounding revenue is giving investors pause. Mahaney grouped Meta in with companies that he said “negatively surprised” the market.

Roblox was also in that category.

Shares of the online gaming platform fell almost 16% on Oct. 30, after the company warned that higher spending on safety and infrastructure could hit margins. CEO David Baszucki told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” that safety on its platform was a “top priority.”

Finance chief Naveen Chopra said the investments may weigh on near-term engagement and bookings but are “a magnifier of longer-term growth.”

Analysts at Benchmark downgraded shares to hold from buy, expecting investments will hinder profitability. Roth analysts, who recommend holding the stock, also see a potential hit to margins next year.

“The impact from these initiatives may negatively impact platform engagement in the near term,” the analysts at Roth wrote, “but is expected to have a greater long-term benefit for users.”

Roblox didn’t provide a comment for this story.

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