Such a result would be a rare setback for an Indian politician who has built an image as a popular strongman and serial winner, winning majorities of state and national elections during a 23-year political career. Most analysts had expected him to easily defeat India’s weak and cash-strapped opposition, some of which have had their bank accounts frozen by the government and their leaders jailed ahead of the election.
But the mood changed dramatically on Tuesday morning as vote counts trickled in, suggesting the BJP may not be able to secure the 272 seats it needs in the 543-seat Lok Sabha on its own, as it won comfortably in 2014 and 2019.
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Political analysts have begun to wonder whether Modi will have to negotiate and make concessions with allies to form a government. In an unusual move, television channels normally aligned with the BJP have changed the photo of their party logo from Modi to that of party leader JP Nadda.
Indian stocks fell 6 percent on concerns that the pro-business Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not live up to expectations, and companies led by billionaire Gautam Adani, a seen as an ally of Prime Minister Modi, saw a fifth of their market capitalization wiped out in a matter of hours.
For the first time in years, Modi appears to be on a roll.
“The whole party’s organisation is built around propaganda around Modi, but the challenge this time is that they haven’t been able to come up with a set of issues around Modi,” said Niranjan Sircar, a political scientist at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi. The government has “overdone it,” Sircar said. “People were uncomfortable with some of the government’s actions. There were some red lines that were crossed.”
Heading into the election, Modi and his supporters exuded supreme confidence, with BJP leaders promising to win 400 seats and staking the campaign almost entirely on Modi’s personal appeal.
Modi’s name appeared 67 times in the BJP’s election manifesto, overshadowing the perennial challenges of “inflation” and “jobs”, mentioned once and twice respectively. Many government welfare programs, such as free bags of grain, were touted as “PM Modi guarantees”. Election materials featured photos of world leaders welcoming Modi, including President Biden, who has sought to build ties with the Indian leader.
But as the campaign progressed, fierce attacks on India’s religious and caste divisions, often stoked by Modi himself, overshadowed discussion of his achievements in improving the country’s infrastructure, introducing pro-business policies and improving its international image.
In some of the campaign’s most memorable moments, Mr. Modi said he had been chosen by God in television interviews, and at rallies he repeatedly warned lower-caste Hindus that he alone could stop the rival Indian National Congress from repealing India’s affirmative action system or seizing their livestock and wedding rings to redistribute them to Muslims.
In the end, it appeared that it was voters in the devout Hindu heartland, a BJP stronghold that led Mr. Modi to victory in 2014 and 2019, who withdrew their support. Early results showed the opposition Indian National Congress and Samajwadi Party on track to win more than half the seats in Uttar Pradesh, where Mr. Modi dedicated a Hindu temple with great fanfare in February.
Elsewhere, the results seemed to signal dissatisfaction with the status quo.
In restive Kashmir, voters in Baramulla voted for Sheikh Abdul Rashid, an independent candidate running from prison, and in Manipur, where ethnic conflict has raged for a year, the Indian National Congress was on track to win a seat against the Bharatiya Janata Party.
The result could cast doubt on Modi’s ability to push through the rest of his agenda. BJP leaders had proposed simplifying the process by holding state assembly elections on the same day as the national election and by redistricting constituencies.
Modi has also signaled that if he receives strong support for a third term he could push through controversial labor reforms such as making it easier to hire and fire workers, supporting local business owners and attracting foreign investment.
There were signs during the campaign that the BJP’s confidence was breeding a degree of complacency among its supporters. In the party’s stronghold of Madhya Pradesh, Saurabh Singhal, a BJP supporter, said he didn’t intend to travel more than 100 miles to his hometown to vote because he thought the party would win a “landslide victory” this time.
“It’s pretty clear who’s going to win this year,” he said in early May, the day before the vote.
BJP supporters who had gathered around the party headquarters in Delhi on Tuesday expecting the usual raucous celebrations accompanied by DJs began leaving the venue early.
Some party members were emboldened to argue that competitive elections were ultimately a good thing.
“We will see growth in some areas and decline in others,” said Rekha Singh, a member of the women’s wing of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). “If we are campaigning alone across the country, what is the fun in that?”
Across the city, Congress supporters were holding something resembling a celebration. Muslim men from neighbouring states had gathered in Delhi to sit in lawn chairs and watch the results. Nearby, Hindu women mocked Modi’s speech, showing photographers their mangalsutras, traditional Hindu wedding rings that he had warned would be redistributed to Muslims.
“I am a devout Hindu and follow all the customs and rituals prescribed by my religion,” Nikita Chaturvedi said, “But I don’t need a political party to protect my religion. I wear my mangalsutra and PM Modi cannot take that away.”
Speaking at the party’s headquarters later in the evening to the thumping of drums and a packed crowd, Congress leader Mallikarjun Kharge said the election results were an indictment against Prime Minister Modi.
“He fought elections in his own name and lost,” he said. “The people understood that if Modi gets another term the consequences would be dire and so they voted against him.”
