While authors like Ratan Sharada have effectively highlighted the BJP’s shortcomings in their articles on the 2024 election results, little attention has been paid to how the “Break India” ecosystem has exploited these weaknesses to nearly achieve its goal. Minhas Merchant, in his May 16, 2024 article, argued that it would be in the West’s interest to see Modi finish below 300 seats in 2024, but did not elaborate on the strategies the ecosystem may have adopted to achieve its goal.
my First Post In my May 31, 2023 article, I explored how the Deep State employs the “die by a thousand cuts” technique and why India must be prepared for a sophisticated and well-funded toolkit aimed at regime change. Comparing the 2020 US Presidential elections with the 2023 Karnataka state elections, my analysis highlighted the exorbitant promises of free services, the role of NGOs and shady service organisations that circumvent the Foreign Contribution Control Act (FCRA) regulations, and various methods aimed at influencing the outcome of elections (a strategy I have termed “die by a thousand cuts”). Unfortunately, such regime change operations were executed with precision and would have come alarmingly close to achieving their objectives but for the extraordinary efforts of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Vulnerabilities in the BJP’s election machinery appear to have been exploited using a meticulously planned toolkit that employed a range of tactics including divisive deepfake videos, exorbitant promises of huge sums of money and other deceptive practices, all with the aim of delivering a ‘death by a thousand cuts’ outcome.
According to various sources, detailed studies were conducted on 543 constituencies where the margin of victory in the 2019 elections was narrow, and questionable plans aimed at increasing the chances of victory were hatched. Particularly disturbing was the case where deepfake video technology was allegedly used to manipulate Home Minister Amit Shah’s speech and falsely claim that reservations for Dalits would be lost. In this case, which occurred this year, opposition activists reportedly used various methods, including digital bans, to spread fake messages in remote areas of the targeted constituencies. Additionally, there were efforts to capitalize on Ambedkar’s legacy and use his descendants to stoke Dalit discontent against the BJP through targeted propaganda, amplifying the Bhim Army’s influence in Maharashtra.
A large number of professional-looking colour pamphlets were distributed, promising large sums of money, and were targeted specifically at Muslims. The BJP reportedly offered little resistance to this tactic. There were also reports of attempts to mislead Muslim voters by claiming that they voted on the basis of development in exit polls, a strategy intended to influence media coverage, even though exit poll results cannot be released until the entire phase of the election is completed. The BJP also faced constant attacks of misinformation from figures like Dhruv Rathi, but received minimal response from the party’s IT department.
Moreover, the alleged encouragement to join “traitors” solely to undermine the BJP from within dealt a double blow by alienating staunch field activists who had been opposed to the party for years. Similarly, the post-election appearances of election strategists like Prashant Kishore in the media, promising a Modi victory, may have given BJP activists a false sense of security.
The potential role of the media in this alleged election interference deserves investigation. As retired Indian Army veteran Sandeep Dhawan wrote in the article: “The Strange Case of the Western Deep State and Indian Elections” Dhawan highlighted Rahul Gandhi’s 257 foreign visits between 2015 and 2019, while the BJP intelligence wing was busy creating memes and videos on why he is not fit to be the Prime Minister. Dhawan questioned the purpose of these visits, including his meeting with Chinese envoy Lou Zhaohui in July 2017 at the height of the Doklam conflict, and numerous other undisclosed foreign visits. Further, some news portals reported that names of lakhs of BJP voters in parts of Tamil Nadu were removed from the voter rolls, raising fears that such irregularities could lead to other measures such as post-poll violence similar to that witnessed in West Bengal, threatening the foundations of Indian democracy.
This careful planning was reflected in the election results, where the BJP suffered heavy defeats in the targeted constituencies and narrow wins in others. Critics claim that overconfidence, complacency and arrogance within the BJP, reminiscent of the “Glorious India” of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government in 2004, ultimately led to its defeat. The result comes as a huge humiliation for a prime minister who has dedicated much of his life to the development of the country.
However, some right-wing supporters see a silver lining in the election results and hope that they will encourage the BJP to address deep-rooted civilisational issues that concern its base, such as changing demographics, the issue of the Wakf Board, the impact of the Right to Education Act on Hindu institutions, and removing discriminatory clauses against Hindus in the constitution. Some believe that even if India becomes a developed country, the lack of urgency in addressing civilisational issues will lead to a situation where Hindus become a minority, similar to what happened in earlier Buddhist countries like South Korea, where only 35 percent of the population is Buddhist just a few decades later.
However, the destruction of free and fair elections may have come at a great cost to the country’s development, especially as India faces dual threats from China and Pakistan on the border while also attempting by the “deep state” to manipulate Indian governance towards a more compliant regime, possibly under the control of the Congress Party.
While China advances rapidly on various fronts, India remains mired in a constant election cycle with many politicians exploiting divisions to thwart progress and plunge millions back into poverty and hardship. What reorientation does the BJP need to make to right itself? The BJP is a giant election machine, but its best tools and resources will be of no use if its actions are coloured by overconfidence, complacency and arrogance. In a June 2018 article, I warned that the BJP would make a grave mistake if it underestimated Rahul Gandhi. It is not just an individual they are facing but a vast ecosystem that supports him and history has shown that many conflicts have been lost because they underestimated or mocked their opponents.
India needs to immediately revoke the FCRA and impose strict regulations on shady social service organisations that infiltrate remote areas with the aim of undermining democracy. A strict national anti-conversion law is needed. Meanwhile, the BJP needs to harness the latest AI technologies and overhaul its approach to IT and social media. The government also needs to tighten control over platforms like YouTube to prevent the suppression of authentic voices. By studying the chronicles of subversion operations depicted in documentaries like Ukraine on Fire, India can pre-empt such threats before they take hold.
Rahul Gandhi’s nearly 300 international trips should be investigated, along with cases related to dual citizenship, the National Herald scandal and various fraud allegations involving the Gandhi family. The Indian National Congress has committed many frauds and impoverished the country. Meanwhile, China has risen and is now challenging the US and the West. India has the same potential, or even more, but it has selfish politicians who are more interested in their dynasties than in its people.
