WASHINGTON — Alan Lichtman, a historian who has accurately predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, argued Saturday that a transition away from President Joe Biden could mean a loss for Democrats in the 2024 election.
Lichtman, the American University professor, rejected growing calls from political commentators and Democratic activists for the 81-year-old Biden to withdraw from the presidential race after his disastrous performance in last week’s debate with former President Donald Trump, a key moment that has raised new questions about Biden’s age and his ability to serve a second term.
“This is a huge mistake. These people are not doctors. They don’t know if Biden is physically able to serve a second term,” Lichtman said in an interview with CNN about calls to replace Biden. “This is all just reckless nonsense.”
Using 13 historical factors, or “keys,” Lichtman has accurately predicted the outcome of nearly every election over the past half century except for the 2000 election.
The system includes four politics-based factors, seven performance-based factors and two factors based on the candidate’s character, and Lichtman said the incumbent party would need to lose six of those factors, or “keys,” to lose the White House.
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Key factors range from whether the candidate is a sitting president to the state of the economy to the presence of third-party candidates.
But debate performance is not the only factor that determines election outcomes, Lichtman argued, pointing to historical examples such as the 1984 election, in which former President Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a landslide victory despite poor debate performances and concerns about his age.
Asked whether questions about Biden’s age and mental capacity were “fundamentally different” from the standards for the presidency, Lichtman doubled down.
“Debate performance can be overcome,” he said. “Stubborn Democrats willing to sacrifice their sitting president at the first sign of adversity. Damn it.”
Lichtman has not yet made a final prediction about who will win the 2024 presidential election.
