As FCS becomes more competitive each year, guaranteed wins become fewer and fewer, and most FCS football programs have had to be strategic, choosing to play a payout game against an FBS team (or two) to help cover expenses.
Let’s be honest, money doesn’t grow from trees for FCS teams.
After the prize match, FCS programs may only have one or two non-conference games they can schedule, so why not try and pick a homecoming opponent when you don’t have many options?
In fact, 24 programs in the FCS have not experienced a winning season in over five years. In a normal year in the FCS, a program would need to win six of its normally scheduled 11 regular season games.
This year is unusual because there are 12 weekends between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, allowing the regular season to be 12 games, as it was in 2019 and 2014. So programs that opt for 12 games would need to win seven games in 2024, but would also get the bonus of being able to schedule a weekend with a higher chance of winning if they so choose.
Several programs have been on the brink of winning seasons recently, and their frustrations may be eased if the ball bounces in the right direction. Of the 24 programs that have yet to have a winning season while their current members are there, who could break the trend?
Here is the list of FCS programs without an overall win for five or more consecutive seasons (COVID years included):
18 – Cornell (* – didn’t play a game during COVID)
17 – Mississippi Valley State
15 – Northwestern State University
13 – Texas Southern
12 – Georgetown (* – not playing during COVID)
11 – Delaware, Tennessee Tech, Houston Christian (excluding wins by forfeit)
10 – Marist
9 – Bucknell, Morgan State University
8 – Portland State University
7 – California Polytechnic University, Lehigh University, University of Northern Colorado, The Citadel University, Wagner University
6 – Charleston Southern, Howard, Western Illinois
5 – University of Idaho, Indiana State University, University of North Alabama, Stony Brook University
The end of a trend
So who can end that streak this year, and how?
Let’s take a look at some FCS teams that seem like they could emerge from these frustrations in 2024. Despite mass transfers and NILs becoming a bigger part of college football, these programs seem to be keeping their roster intact better than most others.
Continuity may be the key.
California Institute of Technology
Last year: 3-8
Winning Streak Ends – Why?: Second-year coach Paul Wolf knows how to win in the Big Sky from his time at Eastern Washington University prior to his stint at Washington State. He and his staff know how to recruit players from the region, and the returning talent this year could at least double the Mustangs’ 2023 win total. With nine-game 2023 starter quarterback Sam Huard recently announcing his transfer to the University of Utah, returning quarterbacks Bo Kelly and Jayden Jones will need to step up. Both have experience and success as centers.
Defensive lineman Elijah Ponder, who earned numerous postseason honors last fall, is another example of the quality talent returning. In previewing the spring game, the team listed more than 20 players with starting experience.
Schedule: Cal Poly, which hasn’t recorded a winning season since going 7-5 in 2016, opted to play only 11 games this fall instead of the allowed 12. Six wins seems like an achievable goal for the Mustangs in 2024, and the non-conference schedule is built for early success and momentum.
The bottom line?: If one of the quarterbacks emerges and has a season as successful as both have been in their individual games, this could be a special year for Cal Poly that deserves the honor of being called “comeback.” They have a key Big Sky matchup at home and a solid roster. With the Mustangs next up, they’ll want to keep their guard up.
Howard
Last year: 6-6
The streak ends – why?: First off, if I had to put a big asterisk on it, it would be Howard’s 2023 final record of .500. Why? Because the Bisons went into the Celebration Bowl as MEAC champions and played two FBS teams (almost beating Big Ten’s Northwestern, but lost 23-20). So, looking at just the regular season record, Howard finished the season 6-5, ending a five-year winless streak. But the loss to Florida A&M in the Celebration Bowl for the HBCU championship gave the Bisons a final record of 6-6. Whatever the postseason results, they should be able to win in 2024. Despite the massive graduate exodus, the culture has changed here and some of the talent from the MEAC championship is still there, led by players like star DB Kenny Gallop Jr. and WR Casey Hawthorne.
Schedule: The schedule is well-tuned to ensure a winning record, even with graduated absences. Trips to Rutgers and Princeton obviously won’t be easy, but Howard should be in good shape to dominate all, if not most, of its remaining 2024 schedule.
The bottom line: Coach Larry Scott and his staff have done a great job of making Howard a better team since taking over during the COVID-19 pandemic. Their last win came in 2017, when the Bisons went 7-4.
Portland State
Last year: 5-6
Winning Streak Ends – Why?: Since winning the Big Sky title in 2015 and finishing 9-3 (including defeating two FBS teams in Washington State and North Texas that year), the Vikings have had three seasons with five or more wins, including a 5-6 mark last year. They have one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in Dante Chachere (26 TDs), an experienced defense, potential breakaway threats and a talented freshman class that can produce results right away.
Schedule: The Big Sky is not easy of course. It always has been. The top half of the conference is a tough battle indeed, and as always, PSU has two FBS/payout games (Washington State and Boise State) scheduled. Non-conference games against two strong playoff teams in South Dakota and Chattanooga will not be easy either. The Bigs will need to win at least two non-conference games.
The bottom line?: The Vics have the talent and experience. Can Bruce Burnham’s team get through a tough schedule? With this lineup, they can.
