Opinion polls in eight leading EU member states suggest the next European Parliament will shift to the right, but moderates will have a say in forming a coalition government or a transitional alliance to keep the parliament functioning.
advertisementVoting began in the Netherlands, Ireland and the Czech Republic on Thursday and Friday in what may be the most contentious election in European Union history, while other countries are yet to vote across the EU this weekend.
A Euronews superpoll of eight EU countries predicted that the moderate-conservative European People’s Party (EPP) would win a landslide majority in the overall vote.
The Socialists are expected to come in second, while the Renew Europe Liberals should come in third, despite likely losing a significant number of seats.
Meanwhile, despite the far-right’s strong growth, opinion polls suggest it is unlikely to dominate the new European Parliament.
“The vast majority of MEPs coming to Brussels after the elections will remain staunchly pro-European. Even delegations from the ECR will to some extent not question the absolute nature of the European Union,” said Tomasz Kaniecki, an analyst at the Euronews polling centre.
Germany
Germany’s European People’s Party is on track to reach a strong showing of just over 30 percent of the vote, with the far-right party relegated to second place and threatened by the slow but steady growth of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats.
The AfD’s growth in support has slowed somewhat after it was hit by embarrassing comments made by its former European Parliament candidate Maximilian Kurler in which he expressed sympathy for veterans of Germany’s Waffen-SS, and by a scandal linked to a Chinese and Russian espionage case that implicated several AfD lawmakers in the European Parliament during the election campaign.
The polls also don’t rule out the possibility that the SPD’s Social Democrats (S&D) could overtake the far-right, although the gap between the AfD and the SPD remains too close to be predictable.
The Green Party came in a disappointing fourth place.
The liberal wing of the FDP (Renew Europe) is losing its support base, dragged down by the average negative trend of renewal parties in Europe.
However, if these predictions turn out to be confirmed after the votes are counted, it will be a rather bitter outcome for the current so-called “traffic light” national governing coalition of the SPD, FDP and the Greens: due to the slow pace of restoring the agreement, only the Social Democrats, as majority shareholders, will be able to claim a partially acceptable outcome.
The CDU-CSU (EPP) election result can be seen as a relative and objectively resonant success for the CDU’s historic member, former defense minister in Angela Merkel’s government and outgoing European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
According to an EU-wide overview of forecasts, moderate forces are likely to prevail over so-called protest voters.
But looking at it country by country, the far-right projections remain as impressive as in France.
France
Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, from the Identity and Democracy party, is expected to win a landslide victory by tapping into social discontent among French people.
Jordan Bardella’s RN list is expected to win nearly double the support of Valérie Heyer’s liberal Renew Europe. * Pollsters have predicted that President Emmanuel Macron’s grouping in the European Parliament will lose the election.
Macron’s unpopularity is due to domestic political reasons. The group represented at the Elysée Palace in Strasbourg is Renew Europe. France’s Renaissance MEPs are a backbone of the grand coalition government, even though they are in the minority compared to the main partners, the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Social Democrats (S&D).
Macronism It was seen by moderates across Europe as a dynamic political proposal that could reinvigorate the EU after the financial crisis and Brexit, but opinion polls suggest it is unlikely to do that again in the new parliament.
advertisementThe French Socialist Party (S&D), led by Raphael Glucksmann, is recovering slowly and modestly, like parties in other major European countries, and is still hoping to overtake. Update And it settles into the second position.
Italy
War and peace, as well as the Ukraine crisis, are likely to be at the top of the agenda for the next European Parliament. The political forces in the European Parliament will need to overcome their divisions to tackle this major geopolitical challenge. Therefore, the outcome of the Italian European elections will be crucial for the next Parliament.
There, the far-right party of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is expected to win a landslide victory. His party, the Brotherhood of Italy (FdL), is part of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group that could back moderate forces to form a working majority.
Polling companies and EU political “bookmakers” are betting on a rift between the far-right ECR party and Le Pen’s Identity Democracy party.
If that were to happen, the current grand coalition government, likely to be resurrected, would have to count the ECR votes to keep the European Parliament functioning.
advertisementThe leading players in the ECR are Poland’s FdI led by Meroni and PiS led by Kaczynski, both openly pro-NATO and pro-Western parties, on whom the EU can rely when it comes to adopting key decisions regarding Ukraine.
Stephen Van Hecke, professor of EU politics at the University of Leuven, explained: “There is still a big gap between the European Socialists and the Identity and Democracy group. So I think it would be preferable for the European People’s Party to work with the European Socialists and negotiate with the Social Democrats and the Liberals, rather than making a deal with Identity and Democracy.”
Opinion polls predict that the PD(S&D)’s support will rise to twice that of Salvini’s Lega.
Spain
After Germany, Spain is another stronghold of the EPP in this election. The moderate conservatives of the EPP are expected to win the election. However, the Socialist Party led by Prime Minister Sanchez is just behind the EPP in opinion polls, so the outcome is still difficult to predict.
The Euronews Superpoll confirmed that the far-right party “Vox” (ECR) would achieve a fairly good score, but not as strong as its leadership and supporters had hoped.
advertisementBut EU voters have clearly tilted the EU balance to the right, which will have repercussions for EU institutions and affect realities across the EU at the national level.
Poland
Poland is a political anomaly, with opinion polls showing that there is barely any centre-left or left party, and the great power clash in this Central European country will be between the coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the KO (EPP), and the ultra-conservatives of PiS (ECR).
The PiS party is leading in the KO* polls, but forecasts still say the outcome is difficult to predict.
