The shifting centre of gravity in the European Parliament could make the next term a contentious one.
As the European Union held elections last weekend, digital newspaper headlines POLITICO “The era of Europe’s Trump has arrived,” he declared, citing a surge in support for far-right nationalist populist parties that are set to emerge as a major force in the directly elected European Parliament.
A week on, there is still fierce debate about whether such apocalyptic views were justified. Different factions of the far-right have gained strength in a number of member states, notably France and Germany, but it has not been a crushing victory.
Protest vote
The European elections are a mixed event, both national and European in purpose and effect: voters still vote nationally and political parties still campaign as such, but the formal purpose is to elect the European Parliament, which still seems distant and irrelevant to most participants, so they see the polls as a perfect opportunity to cast a protest vote.
That is exactly what happened in France, where Marine Le Pen’s nationalist, eurosceptic Las Ambleman National He won more than a third of the vote, double the number received by Emmanuel Macron’s liberal bloc. Renaissance The president’s subsequent decision to dissolve the French National Assembly and call general elections is an extraordinary gamble: If the RN wins a majority or becomes the largest party to lead a new government next month, France could have a “Trump moment.” The prospect has sent financial markets roiling and unrest in Brussels.
In Germany, the result was a humiliation for Chancellor Olaf Scholz, but less dramatic. Alternative füGermany It came in second with 16 percent support, the highest of any party in the ruling coalition, and polled first in the former Communist east, revealing deep divisions that remain more than three decades after unification. Mr. Scholz looks like a lame duck.
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A clear winner
However, at the European level, the clear winner was not the far-right, but the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which has remained the strongest party in parliament since 1999, with 190 out of 720 seats. The biggest losers were the liberal Renew Europe Group (Macron’s alliance) and the Greens. The centre-left Social Democrats only lost three seats overall (to 136), thanks to good results in Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark. But the former “progressive majority” uniting the Social Democrats, liberals, the Greens and the far-left has disappeared.
In the old parliament, the Liberal Party was the swing party in power, able to provide majorities to the right on economic policy and to the left on justice and social issues. Now, the support of the European People’s Party is essential to gain a majority in parliament. Overall, the parliament has become significantly more conservative. As guardian of the EU budget, the new parliament is likely to be tougher on immigration control, weaker on environmental policy, and less vocal on justice and human rights.
Even if parliamentary calculations do not suggest fundamental change, the atmosphere will be very different. The far-right parties are contentious, noisy and disruptive. The first question is whether they can form a new bipartisan coalition and gain more work and influence. If they do, they will have about 160 members, making them second only to the EPP and able to determine much of the agenda.
But that is unlikely. They are primarily nationalists and instinctively opposed to the idea of a common European position. They are united in their hostility to immigration but not much else. The group of European Conservatives and Reformists, once a stronghold of the British Conservative Party before “Brexit”, is now deeply hostile to Russia and pro-NATO, although Poland’s Law and Justice party now sits alongside Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. Le Pen’s RN, Italy’s Rega The AfD, a “freedom” party in the Netherlands and Austria, supports President Vladimir Putin. It was expelled after Le Pen distanced herself from it, but could be revived under new leadership. Fidesz I’m also looking for a new house.
The real dilemma
But the EPP has a real dilemma: try to maintain a “grand coalition” of center-right and center-left pro-European parties with the Social Democrats and the Liberals, or risk alienating old allies by making a deal with the most “acceptable” member of the far-right, like Italian Prime Minister Meloni. According to EPP insiders, an ally must be at least “pro-Europe, pro-Ukrainian and pro-rule of law”, meaning Meloni could be acceptable, but not the ID.
The immediate test comes just around the corner: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking a new five-year term. Competition The European People’s Party (EPP) candidate is sure to win. “We won the election,” she said. “We are the anchor of stability.”
She needs to be proposed by a majority of EU leaders in the European Council and approved by a majority (361 votes) in Parliament. This is a secret ballot and she cannot count on the support of all 401 MEPs in the grand coalition government, which narrowly passed it last time. France Republicanand Ireland Fianna FAIlhas already stated that it will not support her, so she is looking for other allies.
Ms. von der Leyen could reach a deal with Mr. Meloni, but that would cost her the votes of the Social Democrats and the Liberals, who have already denounced such a plan. She could also seek the support of the Greens, but they are unpopular with her own European People’s Party. The best answer for Ms. von der Leyen would be to not make a formal deal and believe they have no other choice.
The centre-left also has a dilemma. It risks becoming a perpetual second-tier European People’s Party in a centre-right coalition. Will it, as it claims, draw the line at any deal involving members of the far right? Will it always go against the flow or will it compromise on issue by issue? The history of the European Parliament is one of compromise, which makes it very difficult to deal with far-right (and far-left) ideologues.
Even if von der Leyen is re-elected and the old coalition government is maintained, there will be increasing pressure within the EPP to make pragmatic accommodations with the far right, as a centre-right party has already done in coalition with the far right at home, making it more difficult for the two major parties to maintain a strong coalition. Quarantine Line Getting the bill through Parliament will be complicated and will depend heavily on tensions within the EPP.
Big unknowns
None of this is yet a “Trump moment” for the EU, but the big unknown raised by the European elections is the outcome of Macron’s gamble in France: an RN-led French government would be all bets off.
The party no longer wants to leave the EU (thanks to the lessons of Brexit) or the euro, but it does want to redraw borders for migrants and roll back a series of EU restrictions. The authority of Macron, one of the EU’s most ardent supporters, is already badly undermined, as is that of Scholz, making the Franco-German duo very ineffectual.
Those who have long argued that the European elections don’t really matter should think again: they can have dramatic, even unintended, consequences.
Quentin Peel is a journalist and TV announcer. He Financial Times Before becoming the paper’s foreign editor and international affairs commentator, he worked in Johannesburg, Brussels, Moscow, Bonn and Berlin.
