Voters across the 27 European Union member states have delivered a stern warning to mainstream political forces, wreaking havoc in French and, to a lesser extent, German politics and benefiting hard-line nationalist parties in many countries.
Still, the far-right wave that the European political establishment feared never fully materialized, and the core of European Union politics remained intact.
Here are the most important trends to emerge from the election:
Conservatives dominate
The mainstream centre-right grouping, the European People’s Party, came in first with strong support and not only maintained its dominance in the European Parliament but even gained a few seats.
It was a sign that the party’s strategy over the past two years of consolidating more right-leaning policies to keep voters from drifting to far-right rivals was working.
Over the past five years, the political group has led one of the world’s most ambitious climate change policies, the Green Deal, but in recent days has watered down some of the policies adopted at EU level under pressure from farmers, a key constituency.
The bill also significantly tightened European Union immigration policy, easing some of the concerns of voters who wanted to stop illegal immigration quickly, but not completely eliminating them.
Far-right chaos
Conservative momentum was somewhat eclipsed in France by the runaway success of Marine Le Pen’s ultranationalist Rally National party, which garnered twice as much support as President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, prompting him to dissolve the National Assembly and call early parliamentary elections.
The ultranationalist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which German authorities have labelled a “suspect” extremist group, surged to second place in German opinion polls but lagged far behind the victorious Conservative Party, which defeated Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats, further weakening his position at the head of a shaky coalition government.
The center is just
The centre-right’s strong performance was not replicated by the other two main centrist groups in the European Parliament. The Progressive Alliance of Social Democrats, traditionally the second-largest force in Parliament, maintained its strength and more or less held onto its seats. But the Liberals suffered a major defeat, weakening the informal centrist coalition of pro-EU forces that generally supports passing legislation in the European Parliament despite their differences.
Together, the three will hold more than 400 seats in the new parliament, which takes office on July 16. While this seems like a strong majority, voting discipline among political groups can weaken at times and tactical alliances may be needed in future to ensure legislation passes. The first test of the new parliament’s weakened majority will be the confirmation of the European Commission president, the EU’s top official, scheduled for July 18.
From a policy perspective, the electoral strength of centrist forces will likely lead to some continuity, especially in maintaining European Union support for Ukraine.
The Green Party has collapsed but remains relevant
The Green Party was the night’s biggest loser: after performing well in 2019 and emerging as a significant progressive force in parliament, it lost a quarter of its seats in the new elections.
This was largely expected: there were two main reasons why voters were moving away from environmentally focused parties: Environmentally concerned voters found the Greens’ policies to be largely integrated into the other major parties, and in a sense the party had lost its unique selling point.
But other voters felt that European environmental policies had gone too far, to the detriment of farmers and rural voters more broadly.
Still, despite its loss in seats, the Greens could emerge as a reserve support base for the three centrist parties.
No more kingmakers?
Before the election, the conservatives had floated the idea of bringing in the European Conservatives and Reformists, a further-right group led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a move that would have been anathema to their other centrist allies, particularly those on the left and center-left who see the group and Meloni as radicals in mainstream clothing.
The centrist group’s continued majority means that there seems to be little need for them to rely on Meloni and her MEPs for now. Conservatives may still need to cooperate tactically with the group in parliament, but they no longer need to rely on them.
But Meloni remains an important leader in the European Union, and with his outsized influence on the political landscape he has already pushed many policies his way. At home, he has performed very well and reasserted his superiority, quite unlike the leaders of other major EU countries.
